South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[snowdog]

5 minutes ago, Georgie said:

What is the MAD thread? Please

Tongue in cheek for the MOD thread ie.Model Output Thread.Some of the posters in there get a bit 'agitated' about each model run and go a bit MAD !

[Leon1]

10 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Trend is there for weather from the east then, but will it be a mild easterly a cold easterly or a flipping cold easterly? Time will tell as ever. Either way looks like it' drying out down here which I'm eternally grateful for.

more likely to be cold mathematically because there is 2 cold possibilities and 1 warm if you see what i mean, so i'd say we are in at a 66% chance now

[festivalking]

4 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

more likely to be cold mathematically because there is 2 cold possibilities and 1 warm if you see what i mean, so i'd say we are in at a 66% chance now

True but when it comes to cold weather in the south mild is always favourite!

[Mapantz]

Nice ECM at 240.

It's going to continue the toing and froing for a while longer yet..

[jethro]

So is it going to snow? 

[Mark Parsons]

3 hours ago, Buzz said:

Here's the epicentre of the quake:

 

 

Felt it well in Bridport the whole house shook and the chair i was sat on moved ( it has castors ) a great experience ?

[karlos1983]

When T gives us a ramp in the Mad thread you know things are getting interesting! 

[Mapantz]

A 15 degree difference (colder)  in upper temps between the GFS and ECM at day 10.

[karlos1983]

29 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A 15 degree difference (colder)  in upper temps between the GFS and ECM at day 10.

It’s a concern, but they pretty much have the same theme, it is the most fascinating period of model watching I can remember in my god knows how many years of watching as a lurker and full blown clueless geek! I’m really enjoying it! This has been the best winter of model watching for quite some time and I think we can really consider ourselves unlucky we’ve not seen a few decent snow events already. This should however give us all hope for the next few winter seasons, we are entering a solar minimum, so we should have much more decent winters or winter chances for a while to come. This certainly would be a great way to see winter out with a bang! It’s hard work being deep southerners, I feel we might be rewarded in the next 10-21 day period!! 

We could miss out, but that’s a long odds bet imo, when, not if is my bet. Hopefully not too late. 

That’s not a ramp either, I don’t think we can ignore what’s almost in front of our faces. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by karlos1983

[*Stormforce~beka*]

5 hours ago, katemart said:

Felt it here in Southampton. Probably only cause I'm lying down in bed, nobody else in the house felt it. Shaking is just like an HGV thundering down the road, only there's no noise. 

I felt the 2am Warwickshire one in 2008 as well, so at least I knew it wasn't poltergeists this time! ?

Did you feel the Winchester one last year?

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, jethro said:

So is it going to snow? 

Hehe - not for 4 days. :-) - but beyond that chances start to increase. My own view is that the easterly will arrive more quickly and with greater force than is currently being modelled - the influence of the Canadian vortex is being overplayed I think, and therefore from around Friday things will start to get very interesting......!

[Leon1]

has anyone noticed how it might warm up at the start if march on metociel?

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/3h.htm

 

just me or are the warm temperatures going to reach our shores or will that precip be snow for us???

[Catacol]

5 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

has anyone noticed how it might warm up at the start if march on metociel?

 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/temperatures-2m/3h.htm

 

just me or are the warm temperatures going to reach our shores or will that precip be snow for us???

No March date on that link. GFS temp charts are nonsense anyway.

Edited February 17, 2018 by Catacol

[karlos1983]

19 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe - not for 4 days. :-) - but beyond that chances start to increase. My own view is that the easterly will arrive more quickly and with greater force than is currently being modelled - the influence of the Canadian vortex is being overplayed I think, and therefore from around Friday things will start to get very interesting......!

That’s my thoughts exactly Catacol! Be amazed if it’s not toned back in its strength in the next few runs. Just doesn’t add up with the SSW we have seen unfold. 

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

That’s my thoughts exactly Catacol! Be amazed if it’s not toned back in its strength in the next few runs. Just doesn’t add up with the SSW we have seen unfold. 

Yes - and if it is being over modelled then the likelihood is that we get an undercut scenario as the block pushes west and forces Canadian energy underneath. This would ultimately increase the flow west under the block... and also give the SW a decent go at frontal snowfall....!

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - and if it is being over modelled then the likelihood is that we get an undercut scenario as the block pushes west and forces Canadian energy underneath. This would ultimately increase the flow west under the block... and also give the SW a decent go at frontal snowfall....!

It just doesn’t add up, any Atlantic trough should be distrupting and going under... I think really this is where human interpretation in the form of the Met office perhaps come into their own! You can’t beat experience and the models are programmed to interpret data in a certain way.... sometimes that’s a little late ? more especially when you throw a SSW in the mix

Edited February 17, 2018 by karlos1983
Gin related typo’s

[Loadsa2000]

What earthquake I was sat in a boat in Swansea bay all day and it didn't stop rocking so wouldn't of noticed

Mind you the swell picked up this afternoon so could of been a mini Tsunami 

[matt111]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Edited just now by karlos1983
Gin related typo’s

Already started before the 18z even comes out? 

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Already started before the 18z even comes out? 

After my kids joint party last night I had to take them to a joint swimming party this evening!!! I’m partied out, so beer, weather and Boxing is the way my nights going! Happy days 

i hate kids swimming parties!!! The women always make the husbands go in! no cougars in sight ?

Edited February 17, 2018 by karlos1983

[fromey]

I don’t know if anyone has posted this yet so apologies if someone has

[matt111]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

After my kids joint party last night I had to take them to a joint swimming party this evening!!! I’m partied out, so beer, weather and Boxing is the way my nights going! Happy days 

i hate kids swimming parties!!! The women always make the husbands go in! no cougars in sight ?

I might let you off then since you've suffered enough. 

[festivalking]

Watching and waiting.....No not cougars @karlos1983!!! But these model runs are going to keep as aforementioned for days yet. 5 days in model land is an eternity. Roll on Wednesday!

[matt111]

Anyone banking the 18z? 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Anyone banking the 18z? 

Is it good I’ve not looked? Peeved off groves is beating Eubank and ruining my bet 

okay looked , oh my days 

Edited February 17, 2018 by karlos1983

[Mapantz]

Reversed zonal.. unbelievable charts!