South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[fromey]

1 minute ago, jethro said:

All I can see is a sad looking Morph in the first pic and Morph with a fat nose in the second.

Good spot! Now that’s all I can see

[*Stormforce~beka*]

14 minutes ago, fromey said:

Does anyone have an enigma machine so I can decode somethings that have been written in the mad thread!

also Today’s and yesterday’s 10hpa charts 

what is 10pha? and why has the sky given us some boooobies

[OldBloke]

It means that the Polar Vortex will be displaced and warmer conditions will replace it. All this is taking place at 101,000 ft above us. Normally the circular winds over the pole during winter run west to east. A sudden warming event causes them to run east to west as the air above the pole warms. The sun's activity causes the warming.

It isn't sure yet, just what effect this will have upon our Jetstream and the weather caught up in it through the Troposphere. Some might post that they can judge what our weather will now do over two weeks...some into March and 4 weeks away. Historical evidence will give an indication but it is not cast in stone but records have been kept and might be worth looking up. 

The Jetstream forecast and the study of the 10 hPa flows over the next week will be interesting. Wednesday would be a good bet to look in as things up there at 101,000 ft will have settled down a bit.

10 hPa is a pressure level at 101,000 ft give or take a few.

Edited February 11, 2018 by OldBloke

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, jy said:

Horror movie time in the north west thread...lots of snow but its from The Blob.....it pivots...Return of the Blob...now a Sausage has appeared,the epic Sausage meets Blobzilla the movie....lots of snow for all that and here.....dry and frosty the Sequel lol

You need to do a blog, mate 

[Frosty hollows]

56 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well 1-3 weeks covers in my book, 1 week Very QTR, 2 weeks QTR and 3 weeks quicker than some. Personally I think by the end of the week we could be seeing some pretty bang tidy NWP modelling if colds your thing! My bet is by the 23rd ish we will be feeling the effects, but that’s just some tummy rubbing gut feeling I’ve learned from Frosty Hollows  the point Nick F makes is very telling because he put it in pretty clear English and didn’t sit on the fence behind fancy words. Been a long winter lol

Don't blame me sunshine! My gut is not yours   My gut is for an early cool, but not cold spring. Temps still in single figures , occasional night frosts and dry and bright. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

6 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

It means that the Polar Vortex will be displaced and warmer conditions will replace it. All this is taking place at 101,000 ft above us. Normally the circular winds over the pole during winter run west to east. A sudden warming event causes them to run east to west as the air above the pole warms. The sun's activity causes the warming.

It isn't sure yet, just what effect this will have upon our Jetstream and the weather caught up in it through the Troposphere. Some might post that they can judge what our weather will now do over two weeks...some into March and 4 weeks away. Historical evidence will give an indication but it is not cast in stone but records have been kept and might be worth looking up. 

The Jetstream forecast and the study of the 10 hPa flows over the next week will be interesting. Wednesday would be a good bet to look in as things up there at 101,000 ft will have settled down a bit.

How often does this happen? How does the sun change to make wind over the pole change?  Is it like solar flares or something? Well if nothing else and no snow we are all being forced to learn new stuff lol! Thanks :-)

[Frosty hollows]

59 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My business partner just sent me this, he’s in Rochdale 

no fair! 

Shit.Am I gonna get there Saturday???It's my Valentine's treat 

[khodds]

25 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I have no idea what this means ...

Basically it’s good... but we don’t quite know the effects of what it’ll bring to our shores yet...

[jy]

its not just us then,,,,SE regional currently doing quizzes its white flag time lol

[matt111]

14 minutes ago, jy said:

its not just us then,,,,SE regional currently doing quizzes its white flag time lol

It's what happens when you've been left out of all the fun all winter. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

20 minutes ago, jy said:

its not just us then,,,,SE regional currently doing quizzes its white flag time lol

I'm feeling more left out now! I wasn't invited to quiz night!

[Zephyr]

18z EURO4 +42 Central Southern could maybe see something?

 

[Rich_Clements]

We had a dusti.g of snow tonight which immediately froze. It'sgoing to be interesting in the morning 

[EllyTech]

4 hours ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

How often does this happen? How does the sun change to make wind over the pole change?  Is it like solar flares or something? Well if nothing else and no snow we are all being forced to learn new stuff lol! Thanks :-)

There aren't many conditions or even anomalies that are unknown to meteorologists. Intensity of conditions can for example, break records, but the phenomena are understood. Having said that, sudden stratospheric warming is a relatively new area to the overall science.

The layer of atmosphere being examined is very high up - the stratosphere. The atmosphere in general, is in constant motion; driven by convection (temperature flux), the coriolis affect (from Earth rotation) - trade winds, the seasons (position, motion and other factors with relation to the Sun), and much more. So, given the vast array of motion and change (through various layers of the atmosphere) we have to somehow decipher the chaos and generate a sensible weather forecast that affects us at the biosphere (ground level).

Some drivers - shifts in the atmosphere - have a profound affect, SSW can shift the PV quite considerably, so it receives quite a lot of attention. 

[karlos1983]

Great my weather station seems to have died overnight 

Now To convince the wife that it’s like the freezer packing up, instant replacement required! 

[karlos1983]

Ian concurs @Zephyr marginal possibility! 

 

[knocker]

Partly cloudy with some large Cu. Temp 4C and a breeze from the WNW

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Great my weather station seems to have died overnight 

Now To convince the wife that it’s like the freezer packing up, instant replacement required! 

Strange you should say that, I've seen two instances of a drop in data transmission, I put it down tot he fact the ait is so cold the radio waves are freezing before they reach the receiver, may just maybe that isn't the case or "Huston we may have a problem"!.

As it appears to be happening to both of us, do you think there's an atmospheric anomaly causing the issues over the Poole area, and the snowdome is breaking up?

Edited February 12, 2018 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

Cracking cold start to the week @ -3C, with a clear sky looking a pleasant day..

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Ian concurs @Zephyr marginal possibility! 

 

Isn't "Marginal" next to "Hopeful" in the SW snow hopers guide to winter weather?

[lettice]

Heard that in Fareham and Locks Heath they had a heavy hail shower yesterday around 4pm.
We had nothing here apart from a little light rain, 0.2mm at that time. Shame, as up to that point it was a lovely bright blue sky day 7.9c max.

2.3c at midnight, 1.1c low at 5:30am
Now 2.1c, 1016.3 hPa, Westerly winds 5-9mph

 

[Glenosnow]

Morning Snowlovers....currently -1C and a lovely sunny crisp start to the day here....still a lot of wrist slitting on the mad thread over the ssw....will it or wont it deliver...well it would be nice to see a lovely cold snowfest to end winter....personally i think the models will swing wildly in the coming days to try and get to grips with it...but hey ho the weather will do whatever it wants eh....

[festivalking]

Hello. Surprise here. Had snow during the night. Roads all whited up but looks a hard frost in the garden. Coldest night of the winter here. -3c

[khodds]

Mums reporting snow three miles from here, nothing here though. Temperature -0.7c, sunny skies near enough

[karlos1983]

So I’m seriously considering giving the Mad thread a miss this morning. Just seen the overnight runs, not looked in there yet. But I imagine nobody has taken any notice of what Nick said last night and there is some toy throwing of a certain nature, chest beating, I told you so etc. 

Edited February 12, 2018 by karlos1983