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DiagonalRedLine

The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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Not brilliant from the gfs rather strange. But does bring a lot of snow to our region  a little later 

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

We need the low further East, 

h850t850eu.png

Well on the 12z it was about 200 miles further Northwest so its a start.

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Just standing on the doorstep having a breath of this lovely cold air, occasional flakes falling, this and the MOD thread responsible for my battery being eaten today. I’d love to see another good fall, but given the excellent snow in December here I do feel a bit greedy

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

but on Friday this run keeps us dry

The way the models can't decide yet I wouldn't even have confidence if it was showing 6 foot for tomorrow evening, so I'm not too concerned that its showing nothing for that far away now.

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Gona give up looking now and just wait and see.

The hype was crazy for this one. I don't think it will even come close to what we had at start of December. Which wasn't much .

Just got to hope for some upgrades.

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dont want to be pessimistic but think we may miss out on any heavy stuff

think our best chances are always from Cheshire gap which wont happen on these runs.

just not blowing far enough in land at moment

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Think I’m going to drive to work tomorrow, getting the bus today just tempted fate for no snow!!! 

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Can't believe I got so excited over the first proper easterly in years :rofl: It's looking absolutely rubbish here. Still, better than wind and rain. 

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The models now are sending the low further south with every run gfs shows no ppn for most of the Mids now on Friday. This trend keeps going it will miss the UK all together. Disappointing day but no matter what we still had a great winter so stuff the Polar Low and the channel headache Low lol. Bring on the light dandruff. :pardon:

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1 minute ago, snowstorm27x said:

The models now are sending the low further south with every run gfs shows no ppn for most of the Mids now on Friday. This trend keeps going it will miss the UK all together. Disappointing day but no matter what we still had a great winter so stuff the Polar Low and the channel headache Low lol. Bring on the light dandruff. :pardon:

The precipitation is simply delayed on the 18z with snow due for many central and later northern areas of England late Friday through into Saturday morning before fizzling out. Perhaps not blizzards on this run but the potential for a stalling band of snow :)

I've seen worse outputs tbh.

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8 hours ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Yes, various forecasts now have Telford as having a couple of cms today, Tues, Wed, Thurs - so those will all stay around, imo. Then there's Friday... :D

It's like the afternoon before a big date when you're a teenager, isn't it? You've chosen your outfit, don your hair, nothing to do but wait... wait... wondering how it will work out... will this be it, will this be The One? :D 

haha yep been exactly like that, even the run up watching the models too 

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Mmm the hirlam after the low Tuesday moved through brings a large section of precipitation over the midland. Matching up with the met office app? 

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This is looking quite a big area of snow, bigger than I expected, I know some of its light but there is some heavy stuff in the too.

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Edited by Sparkiee storm

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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Can't believe I got so excited over the first proper easterly in years :rofl: It's looking absolutely rubbish here. Still, better than wind and rain. 

For some reason the mids thread has the most wrist slashers all in one place.

Why so negative all the time just chill the #^$&$% out I have noticed this for years it makes me think twice before coming on lol. 

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NTGood evening all, 

Some of you may or may not remember me. Been locked out of my account for almost 2 years to the day having lost my password. With what's going on currently I couldn't help but find a way of getting back into my account again. Regardless, I have still watched and lurked as a guest virtually every single run since last October. 

First of all, I hope you are all well - great to see some of the familiar names in the thread still posting. This winter has been far better than those in roughly the last 5 years. We have had falling snow 12+ times, with 1 fall of 6-7 inches, 3 of 1 inch or more and a couple of coverings to go with that. A far superior winter than that of recent years. What a fascinating spell of model watching, the best I can remember since I have been part of weather forums on the net (roughly 2004 before the BBC forum closed down). Ironically, there was a few posts in particular that made me desperately want to get back on site. 

There has definitely been a few learning curves this winter - 1) Weather from the NW can bring snow, just like the good old days. 2) The West Midlands gets its best and most consistent snow from 'marginal' scenarios, normally the slider. 3) You don't need the holy grail to provide snow and cold. A few things that have definitely been lost chasing amazing looking charts in the last few years. 

Ironically, there was a few posts in particular that made me desperately want to get back on site and a couple of you that I wanted to quote directly, 1 person in particular. 

@MattStoke - I have been following your posts throughout the winter. I have found myself agreeing with virtually every word you have written in the MOD thread for a couple of months now. I noticed that you have only been part of the midlands forum for a year or so after a move from London. I've actually been worried for your sanity in the last couple of days with regards to the easterly - the West Midlands never does well in an easterly (unfortunately) and asmuch as I'd like to be wrong, I have had a worrying feeling for this week all the long. We look just too far south tomorrow, just too far west in a showery flow and history/experience from previous events tells us that the front moving up from the south this week will either A) Slide and not even make it, B) Bring milder air and progress through fast or C) Weaken out and barely bring a dandruff covering. Don't let this kind of thing get to you too much though, you will find much like in December that 'classic' setups or the 'holy grail' country wide don't do much for us, but then we take the big snows when areas to the south west + east struggle. Be sure to stick around, your input for a newbie to the region has been a welcome bonus as I have been lurking. 

That's not to say BTW we will all receive nothing though, all is definitely not lost, tomorrow is a huge day for learning purposes IMO and one that will provide a good example as to future reference when it comes to lake effect snow etc. IF we cant get a good number of HEAVY showers into the region tomorrow, with that level of convection, those winds and those uppers - then we might as well forget it. I do think tomorrow represents the best chance of the week when it comes to getting some of the heavier convective stuff over us....not forgetting the potential of a polar low slipping a few miles either way and bringing some snow. I do think there will be quite a low of showers around tomorrow, but it will be interesting either way - of course snow falling at night would benefit anyone wanting accumulations. 

 

Wednesday is looking dry at the minute, my gut feeling tells me that Thursday will be mostly dry as we sit in the cloudy zone - IE we are too close to the system to the SW to be clear enough to trigger any inland convection, but too far north to get any sort of significant frontal snow - I hope I am wrong, especially seeing as these scenarios have played nicely so far this winter and in recent years, but let's see. After that, who knows?! If we can stay on the cold side, we could be looking ahead to further snow, if we aren't - it would be nice to go out with a big bang. The best part of snow for me - is the watching it fall, the chaos of watching it stick and then the 12 or so hours after that, when the roads are silent, the snow is fresh and not untouched. After that though, I'm not too fussed about a thaw - so if we do see a fall followed by a thaw this weekend, that kind of suits me. 

 

Anyway, I have waffled on for far too long, it's great to be back. Some great posts in here this winter. I think the attitude this week needs to be one of 'whatever we get it's a bonus' rather than concerning ourselves with depths and 'will it or won't it' - we just aren't best placed in this part of the country. The model watching has been absolutely fascinating, borderline addicting and regardless of whether the pretty 850hpa charts convert into pretty picture outside the front window...we have been comparatively spoilt this winter and for that, we SHOULDNT be TOO down beat if this week doesn't lead to Narnia. 

 

Will do my best to pop in more regularly than every 2 years from now....bloody email passwords!

Stay safe all + enjoy any snow that does fall. 

Edited by PolarWarsaw

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3 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

This is looking quite a big area of snow, bigger than I expected, I know some of its light but there is some heavy stuff in the too.

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There is  I'm sure there will be some surprises  on a separate note the precipitation on the radar has stopped at Tipton. Mind you would you want to enter there after dark 

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2 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

For some reason the mids thread has the most wrist slashers all in one place.

Why so negative all the time just chill the #^$&$% out I have noticed this for years it makes me think twice before coming on lol. 

Lad it’s not as bad as the mod thread tbh.

but yeah a lot of toy throwing going on in here tonight. Trouble with showers it’s just hit and miss

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just had a flurry that briefly turned moderate ... 

edit still is , might even be pepping duos bit , like the above post everyone needs to chill👍🏻

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1 minute ago, Sparkiee storm said:

This is looking quite a big area of snow, bigger than I expected, I know some of its light but there is some heavy stuff in the too.

Capture.PNG

We had a blob like that over Leicester for most of the afternoon........ Did it snow all afternoon.............................? 

 

No, it snowed for around 10 mins at 13.30 till 13.40...... Then again at 15.00 for about 5 mins, then again at 16.30 for around another 5 mins, yet nearly the whole time we were under that pink stuff on the snow map... It really hasn't been trustworthy for this event..... 

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1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Lad it’s not as bad as the mod thread tbh.

but yeah a lot of toy throwing going on in here tonight. Trouble with showers it’s just hit and miss

No I have had enough I'm looking at closing my account 

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U used to be radders? haven't a clue what my password is, log in through facebook, 

used to do well off an E'ly, '94, '95, '96 and '97, even in the christmas pudding, 2010 was good

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5 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

This is looking quite a big area of snow, bigger than I expected, I know some of its light but there is some heavy stuff in the too.

Capture.PNG

Capture 2.PNG

It was expected to be further south east, this will miss Midlands altogether by the looks of it

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1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

No I have had enough I'm looking at closing my account 

Think that would be a bit extreme lol especially as your mad on the weather

 

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1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

No I have had enough I'm looking at closing my account 

So sorry to hear that mate. The attitude in the thread is awful. Some of the senior people have already stopped posting. 

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