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DiagonalRedLine

The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

New ICON doesn't get  Friday's snow to us😥😥

It will change again 😉

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So far as I understand it, the models are ALL known to be unreliable with forecasting how far convective snow travels inland. Apparently they can identify that it's occurring but not its range. 

So basically, there is no forecast that can say where snow will fall in a day or two days, let alone three or four. It's having to be worked out by looking at the weather systems creating that flow and those keep changing and shifting slightly... 

Someone in the Model thread posted a dozen ensembles, each showing minor variation, but he helpfully oput a black line on each showing where the snow-line woudl be if that specific one came off - and it ranged enormously. Each forecast is basically looking at a huge range and then working out the more likely, less likely and mid-range and basing the forecast on that. 

It must be a DREADFUL wk to work in meteorology! Lovely to watch, some of the most exciting weather systems in decades, but ghastly to be responsible for coming up with forecasts in!

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8 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

It will change again 😉

And guess what.............change again. Lol

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Not expecting much in my neck of the woods until at least Thursday if I'm honest.....and that is an unknown at the moment but has potential.

Possibly slight dusting tomorrow into Wednesday for West Mids.

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1 minute ago, mozza81 said:

Not expecting much in my neck of the woods until at least Thursday if I'm honest.....and that is an unknown at the moment but has potential.

Possibly slight dusting tomorrow into Wednesday for West Mids.

Nah  we will get pummeled tonight and tomorrow kid 

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Just outside the warning for tonight and the Amber warning for tomorrow. Hoping for a small shift.

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Ukmo extends cold aswell!!would be an all snow event friday aswell!!looking good folks! Just to add crazy snowfall for midlands friday afternoon on 12 gfs!!wicked stuf!!

Edited by shaky

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Gfs  Shifts the Low Friday a little more Westwards on this run   at this rate it will make landfall in Florida   however precipitation does get here  just

 

gfs-2-102.png?12

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Just now, weirpig said:

Gfs  Shifts the Low Friday a little more Westwards on this run   at this rate it will make landfall in Florida   however precipitation does get here  just

 

gfs-2-102.png?12

Yes, we could do with a nice eastwards shift.

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2 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

But of a worrying trend from the 12z's... struggling to being Friday's low into our area.

GFS looks sweet.

4A623A90-9040-4FCE-A487-51E6A47A3BC1.jpeg

7BCFB6F9-6FC0-484B-A244-06467CFBEB13.jpeg

841F33B1-331C-4842-9A39-DFFE886C39B1.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Nah  we will get pummeled tonight and tomorrow kid 

Need it to be cloudy if we want to keep accumulated snow otherwise there's no point.

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3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

But of a worrying trend from the 12z's... struggling to being Friday's low into our area.

ABE4EBF9-8C1E-4A37-9BB7-D29F44CBE34F.thumb.gif.49006c37bc5be8a845939e3b84b18b69.gif 

The low eventually gets all the way to Scotland on this run. Hoping the models settle on this kind of solution which would bring a snow event to our region.

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

GFS looks sweet.

4A623A90-9040-4FCE-A487-51E6A47A3BC1.jpeg

7BCFB6F9-6FC0-484B-A244-06467CFBEB13.jpeg

841F33B1-331C-4842-9A39-DFFE886C39B1.jpeg

GFS is okay still, but ideally we could do with an eastwards shift from that first pulse of ppn, I guess we will have to wait and see how it develops this week.

 

you should do well tonight mate.

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Gfs  Shifts the Low Friday a little more Westwards on this run   at this rate it will make landfall in Florida   however precipitation does get here  just

 

gfs-2-102.png?12

it spreads all the way across and down into switzerland. providing a small area of low pressure heads eastwards as it has then everyone should be ok

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Just now, MKN said:

it spreads all the way across and down into switzerland. providing a small area of low pressure heads eastwards as it has then everyone should be ok

Yep  it does  UKMO is better  just had a quick look the low is alot more further east

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Soft grainy snow in Evesham - not expected!   So that's me off the mark already :) 

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS looks sweet.

4A623A90-9040-4FCE-A487-51E6A47A3BC1.jpeg

7BCFB6F9-6FC0-484B-A244-06467CFBEB13.jpeg

841F33B1-331C-4842-9A39-DFFE886C39B1.jpeg

GFS says I'm going to be buried :D    

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Gfs a thing of beauty for Friday the Midlands is the sweet spot. Now just slight shift east then stop lol. Tonight looks good again for West Mids it's like a Soap opera lol.

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3 minutes ago, Essan said:

GFS says I'm going to be buried :D    

Yep.

BA8CC539-6346-45E0-B0A5-8AF8B458AD33.jpeg

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24 minutes ago, Diamond Joe said:

Updated Yellow Warning for Eastern side of West Midlands and East Midlands for tonight, gets as far as Coventry and Nuneaton but not as far as Solihull

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wm&date=2018-02-26&regionType=area

url-5.gif

Bish

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