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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

BBC regional forecast showed only showers tomorrow. No Polar Low. Starting to think I might have to wait until the end of the week for anything decent. Bit embarassing after hyping up this cold spell to everyone I know....

 

Not a bad met update for you 

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

That still not as far West as i Thought!   Interesting

Yh that's what I thought I have a feeling it will be over the Mids by tomorrow. And the Low Friday has gone so far North we badly need it to trend bk further south it's snow to rain for the Midlands now according to Icon.

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Just remember: the presence (or otherwise) of a weather warning covering your back garden does not mean you will (or will not) experience heavy snowfall in your back garden .....

Looks snow showers will be more widespread and heavier tomorrow and continue through till the front(s) move up from the south late on Thursday.   As well as showers before then, the latest Met Office not-a-forecast has almost continuous snow even for Evesham from midday Thurs through until mid morning on Saturday..... !   That's totally unheard of.  So chances are we'll all see some snow at some point.   Oh and no sign of rain ....

Edited by Essan

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Just dipped back below freezing here as the snow reaches the incredible heights of a light flurry! Not settling at all, though, despite the cold -- even in sheltered spots the sun never reaches. We've actually had snow most of the day, but just a few flakes in the wind until now. Max was 1.5 °C; min since midnight has been -3.0 °C.

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15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Icon  Brings the Low  Way North  puts it nearly in Liverpool  then puts us under quite heavy rain later on.   Lol  to be fair though  only has us under -6dp for that period.

Does it ? Looks more south East ?

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2 minutes ago, kiddydaz said:

Does it ? Looks more south East ?

iconeu-1-20-0.png?26-15

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Met Office have moved the Amber warning further north and east when the models are showing it further west. I'm lost now.

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1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Hi Res  GFS WRF    Shows this.   

5a9418cfc20f8_snow2.JPG.adde25ece33deecdbf74f2004230ae2e.JPG

That looks tasty so many models and weather updates with conflicting signals who knows what will happen lol.

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

iconeu-1-20-0.png?26-15

Sorry.....looking at Thursdays excitement !!! So much going on.

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Just now, kiddydaz said:

Sorry.....looking at Thursdays excitement !!! So much going on.

LOl  no probs   its addictive  i should be doing some work.

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 I can’t see we getting much snow from this cold spell even the mat amber warning has been cancelled for these parts. i must say  easterly wins don’t really deliver for our neck of the woods 

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2 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

That looks tasty so many models and weather updates with conflicting signals who knows what will happen lol.

Only our future selves :)

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22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

 Bit embarassing after hyping up this cold spell to everyone I know....

 

I've carefully been concentrating on the cold when telling people, and just keeping on saying that this type of snow is the worst sort for the models to forecast so nobody knows where or how much... but that where there is snow, there's potential for huge amounts, and wherever you are it's going to be bloody cold...

think I'm safe on the reputation front! :D

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Remember everyone this is still only day one things have, can and will shift and change, chins up :)

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Everyone needs to relax for goodness sake lol, there was next to nothing forecast for today and yet we just had a decent snow shower which has left a dusting ready for more to come tonight. With regards to the more prolonged period it’s going to be pretty much a nowcast event and even if we don’t get it the showers will be more frequent tomorrow. I’m expecting at least a decent covering by the morning.

oh and regarding later in the week it’s still days away and it’s position will change loads between now and then so that’s still up in the air.

dont get the banging head on wall rubbish tbh we was never forecast much if anything today!

Edited by markw2680
Mistake

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Arpege  take on the low on Tuesday   main precipitation into Wales  West Midlands to see some of it  only needs a slight shift east though 

 

arpege-1-21-0.png?26-16

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16 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office have moved the Amber warning further north and east when the models are showing it further west. I'm lost now.

A waste of time. Changes so often at the moment

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i thought we in Northampton usually do quite well out of an easterly/north easterly wind flow, but so far we have had nothing out of this current cold spell.  We did miles better back in early December when we had heavy snow for hours and that wasn't even really forecast for us.  Just a shame it melted by the next day and wasn't in this current cold spell instead.  Just typical when you actually get a decent amount of snow its not cold enough for it to stay more than a day.

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7 minutes ago, snow freak said:

i thought we in Northampton usually do quite well out of an easterly/north easterly wind flow, but so far we have had nothing out of this current cold spell.  We did miles better back in early December when we had heavy snow for hours and that wasn't even really forecast for us.  Just a shame it melted by the next day and wasn't in this current cold spell instead.  Just typical when you actually get a decent amount of snow its not cold enough for it to stay more than a day.

But the main snow hasn't started yet! All today's flurries are bonus-flurries that weren't really expected. 

the main snow from the East is forecast Tues/Wed, the biggest dip in temps is Thurs, the possible low from SW is for Fri/Sat. 

Really, don't despair over today's free bonus extra freebie snow! :)

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