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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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Just now, Cov87 said:

So looks likes coventry will miss most of the snow today and tommorrow 🙄..and not pinning my hopes up for friday/sat etheir looks like a south event atm or am i wrong??

No Not at all  the Models are not 100 percent   for Tuesday  Met will prob have a different take on it.  Friday is a perfect for us ATM

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Lets just face it no body or no model know what exactly is going to happen tomorrow, I'm just using it as an idea, but leaving the detail to radar watching and through the window watching :) 

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Even if you miss the low tomorrow, there will plenty of snow showers.

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3 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

So looks likes coventry will miss most of the snow today and tommorrow 🙄..and not pinning my hopes up for friday/sat etheir looks like a south event atm or am i wrong??

Sounds about right. I don't ever hold out much hope for snow on a easterly. Cov, Nuneaton and bedworth only seem to do well from a frontal system from the s/w and then it has to be just right or it turns back to rain. We are just too far inland for showers to carry from the east or west from the Cheshire gap. The mountains of Wales get in the way from the west and the peak district to the north. Also the Warwickshire plane is quite low so we don't benefit from any high ground. 

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Uhm yeah Euro4 is bad even for the majority of west midlands let alone east, it is way west and north :(

 

 

Edited by kmanmx

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Looking at the radar  some beefy showers now starting to form in the East   

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Found it finally lol, like others have said don't worry if the snow goes too far North, as we will have plenty of snow showers behind, if in reality the snow goes through the central Midlands then its a bonus :) 

But still only using this and other charts as a rough idea.

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Edited by Sparkiee storm

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We in east Midland s northants only had the odd flake all day says on radar snow but not had much.

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7 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Found it finally lol, like others have said don't worry if the snow goes too far North, as we will have plenty of snow showers behind, if in reality the snow goes through the central Midlands then its a bonus :) 

But still only using this and other charts as a rough idea.

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LOL   i was looking at the 0z by mistake!     that might be ok  its inbetween times  so the low might be better  although maybe still far west .   looking at charts while working   nedd to stop one or other

Edited by weirpig

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Temp here 0!!still boring old light flurry of snow every now and then!!really hoping this peps but some how i doubt it!not yet anyway!!

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

LOL   i was looking at the 0z by mistake!     that might be ok  its inbetween times  so the low might be better.   looking at charts while working   nedd to stop one or other

Even if we miss the Polar low wich i think will give us a few cms. we surely can't miss all those showers. Still light snow here lol.

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2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

LOL   i was looking at the 0z by mistake!     that might be ok  its inbetween times  so the low might be better.   looking at charts while working   nedd to stop one or other

hahaha :rofl:

yeah also on the 24 hour chart there seems to be a lot of light snow that may go further south and east to cover more of the Midlands as its cant just die out into hardly anything that quick, also obviously there still will be some adjustments too, probably will even come down to radar watching at the time anyway as most unpredictable and rare events do :).

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Somehow models show any laying snow here tomorrow whilst areas further east keep it. No.idea how snow can melt with temperature and dew point below freezing.

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Looking at the radar and it's not looking great. Showers loose all intensity after they pass over Lincolnshire. It would take months of this to get any type of covering here just south west of Leicester. BBC and Met Office say showers will pep up and become stronger later but can't see it.

Edited by WelfordRd

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2 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Looking at the radar and it's not looking great. Showers loose all intensity after they pass over Lincolnshire. It would take months of this to get any type of covering here just south west of Leicester. BBC and Met Office say showers will pep up and become stronger later but can't see it.

Yeh its been really poor so far!!there just aint enough in these showers!!pressure is still really high but should drop off from now and lets these shower clouds blossom!!

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3 minutes ago, WelfordRd said:

Looking at the radar and it's not looking great. Showers loose all intensity after they pass over Lincolnshire. It would take months of this to get any type of covering here just south west of Leicester. BBC and Met Office say showers will pep up and become stronger later but can't see it.

Yeah same here. The showers seem quite intense initially but by the time they get to Leicester they're nothing more than a few flakes in the air. 

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Evidence of some beefier showers starting to move in from the east. Hopefully we'll start to see something a bit more substantial re snow by about 15:00 or so.

Bish

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1 hour ago, pegg24 said:

We in east Midland s northants only had the odd flake all day says on radar snow but not had much.

The radar doesn't show actual type of precipitation - it shows what the computer thinks the type of precipitation is. 

I spent ages thinking it was totally accurate as a reflection of what was actually falling but it isn't - plenty of times it's claimed one thing and we've had something different. It has its uses, but like everything, not to be taken as gospel or relied upon 100%...

Intermittent snow furries all morning, mostly in bright sunshine, here in Telford

Edited by BleakMidwinter
to clarify

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5 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

The radar doesn't show actual precipitation - it shows what the computer thinks the precipitation is. 

I spent ages thinking it was totally accurate as a reflection of what was actually falling but it isn't - plenty of times it's claimed one thing and we've had something different. It has its uses, but like everything, not to be taken as gospel or relied upon 100%...

Intermittent snow furries all morning, mostly in bright sunshine, here in Telford

As far as I was aware, the shape and intensity of the precipitation on the radar pictures is a direct output of the replies a doppler weather radar gets, but the precipitation type (snow, hail, rain) is figured out using weather model output from the latest run. Of course, once the precipitation has started falling it is subject to things like sublimation (essentially evaporation of the snow), which is part of the reason higher up areas get more snow even when the temperatures are low enough to avoid melt even low down at sea level. Some of it just evaporates as it falls, especially when it's lighter in intensity.

Edited by kmanmx

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MetOffice Amber warning for most of midlands from 04:00 to 11:00.   Look at detailed forecast for Leicester and we have no snow forecast until 10:00 and then on and off until late afternoon.  WTF MetOffice?  Get a grip lads.  Leicester snowshield warming up right now to deflect all white stuff ;-)

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1 minute ago, carled said:

MetOffice Amber warning for most of midlands from 04:00 to 11:00.   Look at detailed forecast for Leicester and we have no snow forecast until 10:00 and then on and off until late afternoon.  WTF MetOffice?  Get a grip lads.  Leicester snowshield warming up right now to deflect all white stuff ;-)

To be fair to the Met Office, iirc the warnings were for "unlikely" but "very disruptive", and the wording stated that there was great uncertainty as to where and how much snow might fall. 

The warnings are for potential disruption, rather than for how-much-snow, so the warning was accurate, imo. They were flagging up the entire region to be aware that there *could* be heavy snowfall anywhere in the region - never claiming there would be. 

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7 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

As far as I was aware, the shape and intensity of the precipitation on the radar pictures is a direct output of the replies a doppler weather radar gets, but the precipitation type (snow, hail, rain) is figured out using weather model output from the latest run. Of course, once the precipitation has started falling it is subject to things like sublimation (essentially evaporation of the snow), which is part of the reason higher up areas get more snow even when the temperatures are low enough to avoid melt even low down at sea level. Some of it just evaporates as it falls, especially when it's lighter in intensity.

Yes, I didn't word mine well, will nip back and edit - it's the type of precip that's computed rather than reflected from actuality. 

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Travelling in from sunny Spain to Birmingham International, arriving early Wednesday morning, any views on here if the airport will be closed affected

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