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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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Just catching a train to work in Nottingham, first flake falling in Chesterfield (and I do mean flake) I was kind of hoping that we would have had enough of a dumping by now that rail would be disrupted already. Not that I don't want to go to work, it's just that I want to make sure I can get home again. Sleeping in my office does not sound appealing.

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15 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Does anyone know if the winds are forecast to pick up during the day, to make some of the heavier showers move further towards us? 

Winds look fairly light for the next two days but increase through the middle to latter part of this week. Snow showers will still penetrate further inland from later today onwards as they gain intensity due to increasingly cold air aloft. Even though the North Sea is at its coldest around this time of the year the air moving over it is unusually cold (around -15c at 850hpa) and so the North Sea will become a snow generator. Add to this the likelihood of streamers and trough features in the cold flow I would expect most of the Midlands to get at least a covering in the next 48 hours. In this situation east is best though of course as they are closer to the snow generator.

Later in the week the incoming low pressure area could bring widespread heavy snowfall and blizzards. This is subject to change but don't let those on the MOD affect your moods with talk of the cold spell being over or it will all be of rain. Barring a drastic change I cannot see any precipitation this week falling as rain in the Midlands.

 

 

 

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Having a very light snow flurry here  in Solihull. Wasn’t expecting a shower this early :)

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5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Winds look fairly light for the next two days but increase through the middle to latter part of this week. Snow showers will still penetrate further inland from later today onwards as they gain intensity due to increasingly cold air aloft. Even though the North Sea is at its coldest around this time of the year the air moving over it is unusually cold (around -15c at 850hpa) and so the North Sea will become a snow generator. Add to this the likelihood of streamers and trough features in the cold flow I would expect most of the Midlands to get at least a covering in the next 48 hours. In this situation east is best though of course as they are closer to the snow generator.

Later in the week the incoming low pressure area could bring widespread heavy snowfall and blizzards. This is subject to change but don't let those on the MOD affect your moods with talk of the cold spell being over or it will all be of rain. Barring a drastic change I cannot see any precipitation this week falling as rain in the Midlands.

 

 

 

Thank you :) 

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5 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Winds look fairly light for the next two days but increase through the middle to latter part of this week. Snow showers will still penetrate further inland from later today onwards as they gain intensity due to increasingly cold air aloft. Even though the North Sea is at its coldest around this time of the year the air moving over it is unusually cold (around -15c at 850hpa) and so the North Sea will become a snow generator. Add to this the likelihood of streamers and trough features in the cold flow I would expect most of the Midlands to get at least a covering in the next 48 hours. In this situation east is best though of course as they are closer to the snow generator.

Later in the week the incoming low pressure area could bring widespread heavy snowfall and blizzards. This is subject to change but don't let those on the MOD affect your moods with talk of the cold spell being over or it will all be of rain. Barring a drastic change I cannot see any precipitation this week falling as rain in the Midlands.

 

 

 

EC and GFS though do turn it milder with rain Friday night, GFS not even giving that much snow

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Just a bit of Fun but the Gem is a Gem for the Midlands could be some fun and games in fact this morning has increased our chances of heavy snow from Friday into Saturday. Still lots of twists and turns to come though.

 

BANK

 

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Just now, snowstorm27x said:

Just a bit of Fun but the Gem is a Gem for the Midlands could be some fun and games in fact this morning has increased our chances of heavy snow from Friday into Saturday. Still lots of twists and turns to come though.

 

BANK

 

7D44BFB9-BE71-40FD-AE3E-E5A0EA7F23C4.png.97cee5db1ccae518e1e9409103ed3041.thumb.png.46b7d8dce349c6dadeb84d66ea5cf040.png

 

Ay, GEM and UKMO good, but not GFS and EC

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29 minutes ago, Bishop Brennan said:

Considering we're only a few short hours into a days-long event, that is already one very encouraging looking radar right now. Just a bit more oomph needed to push those showers further west across the whole Midlands region :good:

Would definite large flakes here and there in the otherwise clear morning air in Telford do you for "further west"? :D

Not "snowing" as such but as you gaze out, there are a dozen flakes a minute, then it eases back for a few minutes then it swirls around again. I can feel it, coming in the air today! (Phil Collins earworm a free gift for all our readers ;) )

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These weather apps on the TWO meto and bbc web sites are so poor. Yesterday they were showing continuous snowfall for coventry from snow showers from tuesday to thursday then heavy snow thursday night into friday no its showing nothing till friday into sat night and that to heavy rain??

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC and GFS though do turn it milder with rain Friday night, GFS not even giving that much snow

Yh we need it far enough North so we have the PPN but not to far North that mixes out the cold uppers still looks fine at present from Birmingham northwards. This will go down to the wire.

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BBC calling Tuesday’s system a ‘Polar low’. That would be an extremely rare event!

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EURO4 and NMM not looking good for Tuesday, atleast for my area. Snow has gone north and west, bulk of precip slides southwest down past north Nottingham as far as I can tell, might just scrape past Birmingham. I would expect Met Office to change the amber warning zone to exclude Leicester, Coventry etc, unless their own UKV model disagrees.

 

Saw a few flakes on the way to work this morning though :) hopefully more later.

Edited by kmanmx

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10 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

EURO4 and NMM not looking good for Tuesday, atleast for my area. Snow has gone north and west, bulk of precip slides southwest down past north Nottingham as far as I can tell, might just scrape past Birmingham. I would expect Met Office to change the amber warning zone to exclude Leicester, Coventry etc, unless their own UKV model disagrees.

 

Saw a few flakes on the way to work this morning though :) hopefully more later.

looks good on chart SS posted in short range model thread, but looks sleety later Tues

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13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

sigh, this forum keeps going down? TWO dosen't, 

On current check there are 2819 online on the Netweather forum and 958 on TWO. 

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56 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Would definite large flakes here and there in the otherwise clear morning air in Telford do you for "further west"? :D

Not "snowing" as such but as you gaze out, there are a dozen flakes a minute, then it eases back for a few minutes then it swirls around again. I can feel it, coming in the air today! (Phil Collins earworm a free gift for all our readers ;) )

Aargh - thanks for the ear worm, lol.

Still, better than the theme to Dirty Dancing, which was yesterday’s for some reason.... 🙄

A few flakes in the wind here and there, nothing to report,  but boy those clouds are FLYING along!

Edited by fizz511

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50 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Would definite large flakes here and there in the otherwise clear morning air in Telford do you for "further west"? :D

Not "snowing" as such but as you gaze out, there are a dozen flakes a minute, then it eases back for a few minutes then it swirls around again. I can feel it, coming in the air today! (Phil Collins earworm a free gift for all our readers ;) )

Oh great, now I've got Phil flippin Collins on my internal jukebox for the rest of the day! 

Bish

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