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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


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Anyone with a macro lens needs to go and photograph the amazing snowflakes falling right now. This is the best i can do

So, both hi res models over which whose territory this system is evolving - Hirlam and Arpege (both I would have a lot of respect for) - have very decent accumulations forecast by Friday morning from

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26 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Wouldn't say no 

IMG_1259.GIF

Looks great ! only complaint with that timing is i'd be able to get to work before it snowed, but wouldn't be able to get back home :wallbash: lol!

Next week looks epic though. It's going to be a fun one, that is for sure.

 

Any models showing rain are off their rocker. We've got DAM down to 510 and uppers of around -15c some days !

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I posted this back on December 13th after the large fall of snow we had,

" So we have some milder weather returning...at least we're not sitting at the end of February wondering if we can get some kind of consolation snow before the Spring like we've had to since 2014. Can enter Spring 2018 a bit more chipper this time around! "

Well...um...not sure what to say now!

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Fantastic news!!ukmo shifts things south this afternoon!!probably a massive snow storm on that run for us at 120 hours and it doesnt turn back to rain either as cold air digs in at 144 hours!!

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16 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFS more progressive with Friday's low. Would mean blizzards for the Midlands but a higher risk of it turning to rain.

If the GFS gets much more progressive, the low will be here by tomorrow lunchtime! :p

I was in Worcester for lunch today. Absolutely gorgeous day, with unbroken sunshine and a chilly but manageable wind. Lots of people around enjoying it, too. I know it goes against the grain for those who love snow and deep cold, but I could very happily live with a week or so of days like this. (Though to be fair, this area did fantastically well in December. I might feel differently if we'd only had 3 cm.) It's going to feel a whole lot different before long, of course! I'm not really thinking about the end of the week just yet, as there are several days to get through first which will definitely feel bitter.

Maximum today (here in Bewdley) was 4.2 °C; min last night was -2.2 °C.

Edited by Arctic Hare
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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Fantastic news!!ukmo shifts things south this afternoon!!probably a massive snow storm on that run for us at 120 hours and it doesnt turn back to rain either as cold air digs in at 144 hours!!

Yeah. Briefly rain south of our region before the warm uppers to the south get mixed out.

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Yeah UKMO looking nice, but it'll no doubt change a half dozen times between now and friday. I still don't think there will be absolute clarity on what is likely to happen til later Wednesday.

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43 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Low Res chart. No way will it be that significant. Patchy snow in West Midlands and North Midlands especially.

It isn't low res??  Also the hirlam is showing the same. Let's wait for the euro 4 before you scrap it 

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yeah. Briefly rain south of our region before the warm uppers to the south get mixed out.

Remember surface cold!!will probably be all snow m4 northwards with 0 degree isotherm draped around the m4!!and then it gets colder after that aswell!!

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Remember surface cold!!will probably be all snow m4 northwards with 0 degree isotherm draped around the m4!!and then it gets colder after that aswell!!

Yeah. That's what I meant. Uppers briefly go above 0 south of our region (Not over the South Midlands but south of the Midlands).

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3 hours ago, kmanmx said:

Yeah can see it here towards the end of the forecast 

 

 

The way MetO warning work is that while amber and yellow areas can be warned of similar snowfall totals, amber means they are much more confident of those totals occurring in that area wheras in the yellow areas many places within that warning zone will escape with much less snow. 

I thought  amber was to do with disruption levels  in urban areas, not heavier snow?

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36 minutes ago, shaky said:

Fantastic news!!ukmo shifts things south this afternoon!!probably a massive snow storm on that run for us at 120 hours and it doesnt turn back to rain either as cold air digs in at 144 hours!!

yeah, amazing UKMO, GFS is pants though

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19 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

We'd get blizzards on the GFS. Then a sloppy, icy mess.

I know, messy thaw, UKMO though blizzards no thaw! need the low further SE

today seems much bluer skies, sort of skies you'd get off  a N'ly, unlike yesterdays milky skies, max today 3.5°

 

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we are out of the warning now for Wednesday - we were in the warning earlier it seems?  

 

ps how can I change my name.., everyone seems to have nick names but it won't allow me to change mine for some reason? 

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Just now, Nicky Shepherd said:

we are out of the warning now for Wednesday - we were in the warning earlier it seems?  

winds on Wed are ESE'ly, no good for our region, showers will travel WNW, southern point just north of the Wash, N England gets it of ESE'ly

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