The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[WalsallWeather123]

25 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

That low looks further east. Ah balls!

Chris Fawkes may be right!

[Diamond Joe]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wm&date=2018-02-26&regionType=area

 

updated warnings we all in by Tuesday

[MattStoke]

Met Office yellow warnings for Tuesday have been extended and mention Amber warnings are being prepared for that low on Tuesday....

Edited February 25, 2018 by MattStoke

[kmanmx]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its a tight one mate regarding tuesday!!leicester is literally a few miles away from the really heavy stuff!!think it will track further south though!!

Yep, still definitely watching and holding my fingers crossed. The good thing is the Met Office on a forecast yesterday said it's basically impossible to say where is going to be hit and where isn't from these easterly showers. They're just too small and localized for the models to pick up on properly. So we're still in with a shout.

Whatever happens it will be an interesting week !

 

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office yellow warnings for Tuesday have been extended and mention Amber warnings are being prepared for that low on Tuesday....

 

I would imagine the amber warnings will be for the eastern coastal counties.

Edited February 25, 2018 by kmanmx

[The Wolf]

As I said earlier in the thread the bbc forecast earlier showed the area of snow moving over all of the Midlands on Tuesday in the early hours and still snow around in the daytime. If what they showed is correct then most of the Midlands will have a covering by Tuesday morning. The snow seemed to be moving from the North East southwards. Some of the snow even getting into parts of East Wales.

Edited February 25, 2018 by The Wolf

[shaky]

Holy crap amber warning for nearly all the midlands tuesday!!

[Vmistry]

Just a question, but I don't understand how a few showers that are hit and miss can give significant accumulations and how it's different to any other showers that would come from a NW'ly that would give maybe 2-3cm.

Am I missing the fact that its an easterly so the setup is a lot different in terms of shower activity? Thanks ?

[MattStoke]

[Rammie]

I'm just in the Amber bit

[BleakMidwinter]

8 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

Just a question, but I don't understand how a few showers that are hit and miss can give significant accumulations and how it's different to any other showers that would come from a NW'ly that would give maybe 2-3cm.

Am I missing the fact that its an easterly so the setup is a lot different in terms of shower activity? Thanks ?

You've got it - this is a huge Easterly and it means lots of 'normal' weather stuff doesn't apply. 

For instance, accumulations - apparently the usual thing is 1mm of precipitation = 1cm of snow - but with this dry powdery stuff that's typical of an Easterly, they reckon 1mm of ppn produces more like 3cm of snow. So a 4cm snow forecast could result in 12cm of snow... 

[BleakMidwinter]

Here's what I've just sent my friends:

"Right, the weather in the coming week:

1. SNOW: do NOT rely on a forecast saying anything about snow. All the models are known to be rubbish at assessing how far inland this type of snow pushes ('convective snow' formed by very cold air incoming over relatively-warm water), so every snow-forecast at present is real guesswork. 
The basics are reasonably sure, although even those are liable to change at short notice. 
a) Mon-Wed: it's incoming from the East, but is likely to form 'streamers' well inland following the landscape in specific areas. It was a 'Cheshire Gap streamer' that gave us our foot of snow in Dec, well inland. There are known Thames streamers (Kent, Sussex), Wash streamers (E Midlands, E.Anglia, parts of NE Greater London), Humber streamers (potentially us in Shropshire)... so "east coast snow" can mean a lot of inland places too.
b) Friday: there's a low coming up from the SW. Again, it's not certain by any means (it might even mean heavy rain for Cornwall) but the potential is there for exceptional snow for the West Country, Wales and the West Midlands (yep, we might get it from both directions!)
c) quantities: normally the rough estimate is 1mm of precipitation = 1cm of snow. If it's a particularly dry, powdery snow that multiples by about three, so 1mm=3cm. So if a forecast claims your area will get 4cm of snow, don't think airily that it won't affect anything because it could turn out to be 12cm. It's all unknowable til it lands on your head, I'm afraid.

2. COLD: it is going to be cold. Wed-Fri are not expected to go above freezing. It is exceptionally rare for most parts of non-hill, non-rural Britain to have 72 hours of ice-days. The Easterly wind is going to add a wind-chill factor beyond what is normal in British wintry weather. They reckon the wind-chill can take another 5 or 6 degrees off the actual temperature, so if your area is forecast for a balmy tropical -2, be aware it may well feel more like -7 or -8. Winds are forecast to be gusting up to 40-50mph for much of Britain, specially on Friday when the heaviest snow is expected for the biggest part of the island. Snow at 30mph is termed a blizzard, so it's really not going to be much like ordinary snowfall. 
Whether or not you get any snow in your area, you WILL get very bitter cold for days on end. I hope most of you know this but: open curtains if it's sunny, to get the solar gain to warm a room, but otherwise keep curtains closed in a room you re not in at the moment; close curtains before dusk, ie keep the warmth in; if you only have pretty, fashionable voile panels, then seriously consider fixing blankets up over part or all of the window to prevent heat loss. Put towels or spare clothes along the bottoms of doors to stop draughts, although if you have a gas fire then make sure you do have safe ventilation!
If you find it's cold indoors, then to hell with what you look like, get your head and lower legs and hands covered, as it makes a real difference (your grandmother was right!) - wear a woolly hat or a light scarf over your head, wear fingerless gloves (if you don't have any, consider sacrificing an old pair of thick socks: cut the toes off and slide the remaining tub over your wrists and forearms); two pairs of thin socks are warmer than one pair of thick; add another pair of socks and tuck your trouser-legs in to stop draughts going up!

If you are on the East of the island, be prepared for almost anything, I'm afraid. If you're in the southern/western part then Friday could hold almost anything. 
If you can work from home on Friday 2nd March, it would probably be a really good idea to do so. 
If you have neighbours/ family/ friends who are elderly/ less able/ pregnant/ have small offspring or anything else that may make it more difficult for them to be out and about in bitterly cold weather, do please check whether they want any shopping done, etc."

(Yes, you're right, I am a dreadful Mother Hen, fussing round after them all  )

[MattStoke]

Not in the Amber warning but reckon it should still give a few cm here.

[Bishop Brennan]

Hello one & all 

Thought I'd finally make an appearance in here after what seems like an absolute eternity. Sadly December and January wasn't the happiest time for me personally as I was dealing with the passing of my father, so I was mostly a lurker during the December snow events.

So how is everyone? Any cold weather on the horizon for us? 

Bish

[BleakMidwinter]

Welcome back, Bish! Sorry to hear the reason for your absence - {{hugs}} if you accept 'em, sympathetic handshake if you don't. 

It might be a tad nippy, I believe. Maybe a little light frost sometime next week in the Solihull area...

[Vmistry]

7 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

You've got it - this is a huge Easterly and it means lots of 'normal' weather stuff doesn't apply. 

For instance, accumulations - apparently the usual thing is 1mm of precipitation = 1cm of snow - but with this dry powdery stuff that's typical of an Easterly, they reckon 1mm of ppn produces more like 3cm of snow. So a 4cm snow forecast could result in 12cm of snow... 

Thanks for explanation, I'm a complete novice ?

[Midlands Ice Age]

24 minutes ago, Bishop Brennan said:

Hello one & all 

Thought I'd finally make an appearance in here after what seems like an absolute eternity. Sadly December and January wasn't the happiest time for me personally as I was dealing with the passing of my father, so I was mostly a lurker during the December snow events.

So how is everyone? Any cold weather on the horizon for us? 

Bish

Great to see you back...we have all missed you .Sorry about your news.

MIA

[WinterWilf]

Just in the amber but likley it means squat. Just seeing the snow fall would do me. Also all those moaning about the Friday sw low in the mod thread I'm like where it's modeled now suits me fine lots of snow.. but I doubt it will pan out like that 5 days out. Cold and snow will do me. but bad for my work. But pretty much written the week off. Work wise bar tomorrow.  Can't cut lawns or clean windows when it's below 0 or snowy.. to be fair I don't mind if it's just a 1 week deal.

[kmanmx]

Cool, very surprised to see the amber warnings spread inland nicely to cover our area. I'll take it 

[el tiempo]

Poor Tomas. BBC News cut off half way through  to leave him standing 'exposed " 

[weirpig]

Fun and games. Anywhere in this region will see some serious snow over the next few days  brum almost on the line of the amber  all good fun 

[Andypvfc]

Hi Guys, new to this forum so good to meet you all all. As a taxi driver working around the Newcastle under Lyme area of Stoke on Trent, I'd be interested to see your thoughts on whether we can expect much for around here. I know this week tends to be showers so hard to forecast but what your thoughts on the low pressure coming in next Friday

 

[Diamond Joe]

I think the amber line goes right over the top of my house lol

Theres gonna be surprises this week hope we can all enjoy something significant, though someone always misses out 

[kmanmx]

@shaky

 

Just watched the MetO forecast on youtube, and they have the heavy precipitation about 50 miles south of where the other models have it, our area in for a direct hit. Just as we hoped would happen !

Of course its about 40 hours away still so lots of time for it to change. But the Met Office have it down is quite likely

 

 

The timing could actually be quite terrible for me, just as I am driving to work it is due to hit. 

Edited February 25, 2018 by kmanmx

[MattStoke]

My warning for Wednesday cancelled. Hmm. Stoke not looking so great in an easterly.

[kmanmx]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

My warning for Wednesday cancelled. Hmm. Stoke not looking so great in an easterly.

Still 3 days away, plenty of time for MetO to change the warning areas, and it's very likely they will.