The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[weirpig]

Not a bad early run from gfs if you like snow  about as useful as any model predicting the weeks events I don't think any of us know what to expect 

[moorlander]

Someone im working with this week has agreed to do overtime next week. He drives a beamer

[Walsall Wood Snow]

37 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I’m too young to remember any of the really great events. I was only little in 1991 and a baby in 1987. December 2010 and March 2013 are the best I’ve seen.

I've always been quite disappointed that for some reason I remember very little of Feb 1991, despite been nearly 6 at the time. Which is strange as I remember other things in my life long before then, such as the first time I met my sister and starting nursery school both in late 1988.

I do remember this one day when there was a lot of snow though and playing in the back garden in it as well as a bit of a flash memory of starring at it from my bedroom window. I've even got 3 photos of me posing with a snowman I built, looking very proud wrapped up in my parker, scarf and gloves. To be honest though these could have been taken in either Dec 1990 or Feb 1991 as they're not actually dated but would definitely be one or the other as there were no other snow events on that scale near that time. When I first really took any notice of those photos back in the early 00s (which is when my snow obsession really started from the Dec 2000 and Dec 2001 events here) I was amazed at how the snow looked on those images as literally everything was thickly plastered white, especially the hedgerows besides me which look like they were smothered in a thick white duvet and the only things that appear to be in colour are myself and the hat scarf and carrot on the snowman and you can tell it was still snowing a bit as well so there's no direct sunlight anywhere either with white snowy skies.  I also remember afterwards when the Sun was out but with snow still on the ground sitting in the back seat of the car while my Dad was shovelling snow from round the car and struggling to get it off the drive as the wheels just kept on spinning, but that too is just a bit of a flash memory.

My mum remembers Feb 1991 very well however as tragically it was during this spell that my uncle died suddenly (strangely I don't recollect this happening either, though I do vaguely remember him, but to me it was like he was around then he wasn't if you know what I mean). She has told me that the road by our house at the time was completely cut off with snow up to the top of the front garden wall and she had to make her way up to the main road to meet my grandad so they could go to sign his death certificate. So not a nice memory for her . 

[moorlander]

@Midlands Ice Age remember my dad telling me about 47. Me i was born during the coldest CET march of the 20th century. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

8 minutes ago, moorlander said:

@Midlands Ice Age remember my dad telling me about 47. Me i was born during the coldest CET march of the 20th century. 

March 1962 then at 2.8. Apparently March 2013 was 2.7, but I've always thought it was the coldest March since 1962 but wouldn't it actually have been the coldest March since 1892 (also 2.7) or 1883 at 1.9?

[fizz511]

23 minutes ago, moorlander said:

Someone im working with this week has agreed to do overtime next week. He drives a beamer

Make sure he packs a sleeping bag then.... ?

I’ve just put cross climate tyres on my Golf, so I’m good to go! (hopefully ?)

[Snowyowl9]

23 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

signs of the beast already, that continental look out there, hazy skies, disc sun, when beast arrives not sure if skies go bluer, as it's polar continental

Yes it will become much clearer,all the haze and smog coming in from Europe now.

A min of -2.2 with 2.7c max wall to wall sun again,this has been the driest spell of the winter.

Edited February 24, 2018 by Snowyowl9

[moorlander]

Yep. But im a 20th century lad.

But whether it's 19th or 20th one thing is for sure 21st infrastructure is or appears to be more fragile

[Walsall Wood Snow]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ygz0iw2fD_o 

Here's a track from the soundtrack to an old SNES game from 1994 called 'Donkey Kong Country' called 'Northern Hemispheres' which featured on a couple of the snow themed levels. They went for a very atmospheric type of theme in the game which fitted perfectly, as in these levels it starts off calm clear and icy and as you progressed a snowstorm was brewing up in the background which moves into the foreground as a heavy blizzard and the music starts getting more tense. It only lasts a few minutes then just keeps on playing on loop. It's good blizzard music though. Anyway enjoy.

[Cov87]

Blizzard anyone??

[weirpig]

This event on Friday is very interesting. Lots of things to resolve but I think is has our name all over it . Let's see what the ecm does 

[moorlander]

OMG ace

32 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ygz0iw2fD_o 

Here's a track from the soundtrack to an old SNES game from 1994 called 'Donkey Kong Country' called 'Northern Hemispheres' which featured on a couple of the snow themed levels. They went for a very atmospheric type of theme in the game which fitted perfectly, as in these levels it starts off calm clear and icy and as you progressed a snowstorm was brewing up in the background which moves into the foreground as a heavy blizzard and the music starts getting more tense. It only lasts a few minutes then just keeps on playing on loop. It's good blizzard music though. Anyway enjoy.

Had that used to play it with my eldest son

[kmanmx]

In the model thread there is a lot of talk about the south getting a blizzard and the north and scotland getting a good dumping too, midlands sounds like a good safe ground if you want the least snow over the next week  That said, Met Office have still put out warnings including much of midlands, and apparently the models are bad at getting the frequent showers coming in from the NE, so who knows. MetO clearly seem to think they'll make it far enough inland.

The obsession in model output thread seems to be around next Fridays low tracking up from France. Frankly, it seems a little wild to be putting so much emphasis on the outputs that far out. Yes I understand the importance of the low surrounding the current cold spell, but the models seem to so often be wrong about things even 48 hours out that looking 6 days ahead is surely not much more than a 50/50 guess at this point in time.

Edited February 24, 2018 by kmanmx

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO looks amazing snowfest, but is it too far north? chance of cold upppers getting mixed out?

Edited February 24, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Ian Ballinger]

So do we think we will get much here before Friday?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Ian Ballinger said:

So do we think we will get much here before Friday?

in model thread too, but seems trend to move Tuesday's snow over our region? B'ham northwards. was Aperge I think, GFS does too

[ChezWeather]

EURO4 for mid-day on Monday

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

So, less cold. kinda back to normal with rain next weekend, on EC/GFS and GEM, cannot be ignored, and could well happen, snow chances before then though, before messy thaw Saturday 3rd

[Arctic Hare]

Pleasant day today. Max was 5.4 °C -- a full degree higher than even the warmest of the 20 GFS 12z runs, which is interesting. Lots of sunshine and not much wind, so as long as you were sensibly dressed it was fine. I think some people are going to get a real shock when Monday arrives!

[markw2680]

I wouldn’t be too concerned about what they are showing for end of the week yet, that’s ages away there will be plenty more twists and turns to come. Enjoy what this week has to offer and by Wednesday we will no more.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

trend seems to be on all models to stall the low out west, bringing in less cold air, where as yesterdays models had the low moving ENE through the channel

[Ian Ballinger]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

trend seems to be on all models to stall the low out west, bringing in less cold air, where as yesterdays models had the low moving ENE through the channel

What would that mean for our region ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

What would that mean for our region ?

rain, after a bit of snow on Friday

[kmanmx]

You gotta laugh at this event for us midlanders 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

You gotta laugh at this event for us midlanders 

 

Ay, model is saying 'up yours' Midlands, had your turn 8-11 Dec, someone elses turn now