The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This looks pants! surely showers are widespread? bad at modelling convective precip I know

[chris pawsey]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

This looks pants! surely showers are widespread? bad at modelling convective precip I know

We have to hope the 850s are cold enough over the north sea for convective showers to stream west enough for the west mids, and then hope for a northerly correction on the channel low Thursday by my amateur eye! At least we had snow in December! Looks like south of the M4 may do very well... makes a change for them lot! 

[Ian Ballinger]

I do have a feeling us midlanders will be left deflated 

[Dancerwithwings]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

This looks pants! surely showers are widespread? bad at modelling convective precip I know

The end of the week is one to keep an eye on for Snow and It could be a hell of a show

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The end of the week is one to keep an eye on for Snow and It could be a hell of a show

Yes, 18Z it's on, very similar to chart SS posted in model thread, the ukmo 168

[I remember Atlantic 252]

normally I'd think vile! but not this time

[markw2680]

I really wouldn’t worry, showers will just pop up all over the place next week I’m pretty confident of a good covering by Wednesday tbh

[Cov87]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, 18Z it's on, very similar to chart SS posted in model thread, the ukmo 168

Just what us midlanders like.to.see the low pushing north..copious amount of snow if that verifies 

[markw2680]

This is what I want lol, this was in December ignore the play thing it’s just a screenshot of a video I took.

although it should be much more powdery this time

[kar999]

2 hours ago, marksp said:

March 2013  23rd had heavy snow here, absolute chaos, so could get a repeat this next week.

just shows get the right patterns and anything possible, I also believe the conditions in 2013 weren't as  extreme as this predicted spell

 

Great pic..

I posted a link to March 2013 set up a few pages back but a low drifting up from France next Friday might give us a similar event albeit more snow than rain this time...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/march2013-snow

 

Snow and low temperatures late March 2013

A spell of severe winter weather brought significant snowfalls and unseasonably low temperatures to many parts of the UK from late March to early April 2013.

From around 10 March to 10 April the UK experienced a prolonged spell of below average temperatures with winds from the east or north, drawing bitterly cold air from northern Europe and Siberia. Persistent cloud cover resulted in cold, overcast days with a strong easterly wind often contributing to significant wind chill. The cold was often accompanied by snowfalls. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by kar999

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just been out to put the car in the garage.

Cloudy at the moment.

Temperature is at exactly 0.0C.

BUT the dew point is at -5.8C.

It really shows the continental air is getting to us already.

I've been out to cover my fish ponds today. They do not mind the frost too much ,but I hate it when I do not know where the ponds are when they are covered in snow.(I fell in once when I didn't know where it was). So now I am going to keep it covered, and hopefully I'll be able to lift the wood off, complete with snow.

It worked in December.

Oh dear what if the drifts completely over the whole lot...

An exciting week (hopefully) ahead. 

MIA

[MattStoke]

Nice week ahead.

[moorlander]

Finish my shift rota Monday morning so will have to have a full week off. Im gutted. HONESTLY you do believe me dont you

[MattStoke]

GFS brings the region a 2 day blizzard from that low at the end of the week. Long way to run on that one though.

[moorlander]

got your walking boots at the ready @MattStoke

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, moorlander said:

got your walking boots at the ready @MattStoke

Husky dogs and skii boots at the ready! Only thing that will really bother me is the windchill. Warned all my work colleagues because the heating in my office is useless. 

[moorlander]

i have tried and tried till im blue in the face to warn others but they look at me as though im on something so as of now sod em they can find out the hard way.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, MattStoke said:

GFS brings the region a 2 day blizzard from that low at the end of the week. Long way to run on that one though.

other models look same way as well, EC is further north

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

other models look same way as well, EC is further north

MO apparently thinking no more north than Coleshill, North Warwickshire. If it’s centre gets that far, I would think the entire Midlands would be affected.

[Cov87]

2 day blizzard anyone?? Friday and sat look insane atm for the central england!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

MO apparently thinking no more north than Coleshill, North Warwickshire. If it’s centre gets that far, I would think the entire Midlands would be affected.

EC would suggest that, but it's further north than on 12Z yesterday, GFS again, perfect setup

[BarometerCat]

sunny clear and still at 0c this morning. Heard people mention how cold it feels, this might be nothing compared to next week.

 Will be interesting to see the précis charts when closer to Monday/Tuesday!

 

[kev238]

It's very difficult to predict shower distribution for the Midlands 

Initially the East Midlands will do better for sure but by Wednesday it should be more widespread and that's even before the low from the south ( far too early to work out where that will effect!)

 

[BleakMidwinter]

4 hours ago, moorlander said:

i have tried and tried till im blue in the face to warn others but they look at me as though im on something so as of now sod em they can find out the hard way.

Me too. 

Mind you, I did let the Old Dears at my Sewing Group know about the Dec 8-10 snowfall, which turned out to be well over a foot in 48 hours, and I only told 'em two days before it started and they knew nothing about any possible snow. Now I've let them know, last Wed, about the extreme cold incoming and heavily emphasised snow impossible to predict in those circs at that timeframe, but be prepared... so if this does come off, I'm probably stuck for years with being asked whether it'll be dry and sunny for Our Jeanie's Party because "you know all about the weather, eh?" :o

 

[Diamond Joe]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wm&date=2018-02-26&regionType=area

updated warnings for west midlands