The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[el tiempo]

Purely out  of curiosity. If this SSW were to occur at other times of the year eg may, August or October,  what would the weather outcomes be then. Thanks. 

[Sparkiee storm]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

kinda agree there, seas too cold for big convective showers, Dec is best month, warm seas, but beast in Dec not likely in the christmas pudding

@WalsallWeather123 just the other week we saw a very short easterly and it brought a lot of snow flurries mostly light but it still left a covering in the Central Midlands, even the winds wasn't too strong either.

Edited February 19, 2018 by Sparkiee storm

[WalsallWeather123]

4 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

@WalsallWeather123 just the other week we saw a very short easterly and it brought a lot of snow flurries mostly light but it still left a covering in the Central Midlands, even the winds wasn't too strong either.

The precipitation came through the Cheshire gap that time. Here we are relying on convective showers from the North Sea. Completely different phenomenon. 

[WalsallWeather123]

Snow symbols out on Netweather for 25th in Walsall

[MattStoke]

SST's are above average.

Updated MO outlook sounds full of potential for the Midlands.

[Staffordshire]

The model output over the past 2/3 days has been ridiculous...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The precipitation came through the Cheshire gap that time. Here we are relying on convective showers from the North Sea. Completely different phenomenon. 

Yes, Cheshire Gap is warmer, more convection

[cyclonic happiness]

i know we are all set to go, and all the signals are pointing in the right direction, but I don't seem to be able to build up any enthusiasm yet.

We've had so many let downs, this will be our salvation  (if it happens) 

[Rich_T]

The model discussion  thread is full on ramp mode, meanwhile the BBC weather app is having non of it, showing for the week commencing 26th February temperatures about 3c rising to 5c later with overnights at about zero, mostly overcast (Nottingham and Derby )

Edited February 19, 2018 by Rich_T

[Cov87]

If what the models are showing is correct is that good news in terms of snowfall for west midlands??

[shaky]

What an ecm tonight!!aint seen agreement on a severe cold spell of this calibre in nearly a decade!!and to think the ecm is a slight mild outlier from days 5 to 6!!could bring in cold even quicker tomorrow!!shame ian ferguson aint on here anymore would have been brilliant to hear from him!!

[Sweatyman]

2 hours ago, Rich_T said:

The model discussion  thread is full on ramp mode, meanwhile the BBC weather app is having non of it, showing for the week commencing 26th February temperatures about 3c rising to 5c later with overnights at about zero, mostly overcast (Nottingham and Derby )

Those apps are useless. Seriously!

[BleakMidwinter]

20 hours ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Cold temperatures around freezing are almost a certainty I would say for the Midlands. How prolonged will the cold spell be is a different question. All depends on the position of the heights. However I don't believe Central areas will be getting much snow. That will be limited to eastern areas

We might get lucky - there's a good chance of it sort of swinging round and coming in at us from the NW a bit later on... 

[RobR]

I know it is early days and I Wass slagging the models off yesterday but now starting to get more interested in this event.

Typically I'm in Madrid from 2nd-5th March which is a little annoying as I will miss some of the extreme cold and potential snow.

Not like I'm compensating for it by travelling to East Europe either!

[BleakMidwinter]

9 hours ago, el tiempo said:

Purely out  of curiosity. If this SSW were to occur at other times of the year eg may, August or October,  what would the weather outcomes be then. Thanks. 

Well... they don't really occur in non-winter, because it's caused by the way the colder air behaves. They still don't know everything about them - they only discovered them in 1952 when it was possible to measure the temps in the strat. 

the Wikipedia page on SSW says "Major SSWs occur when the winter polar stratospheric westerlies reverse to easterlies. In minor warmings, the polar temperature gradient reverses but the circulation does not, and in final warmings, the vortex breaks down and remains easterly until the following boreal autumn"

As far as I can tell, a lot of the ramping is because it's really uncommon for an SSW to happen this late in the cold months - they're usually much earlier, in Nov, Dec, Jan, and so the stuff that is known about SSWs is related to those situations - it seems nobody really is sure what to expect, but it is looking increasingly like a heck of a lot of cold weather. 

[Sparkiee storm]

9 hours ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

The precipitation came through the Cheshire gap that time. Here we are relying on convective showers from the North Sea. Completely different phenomenon. 

This is the event I meant on Sunday night into the early hours of Monday, it gave a light covering from light flurries coming from the East.

As for the upcoming cold spell, WOW!!! 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Sparkiee storm

[Rich_T]

41 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Those apps are useless. Seriously!

I know the apps vary in reliability, however much as i would like a weather event i know a few people who are event planning based on the info on the BBC weather app, for of all things an early Spring walk in early march, containing the line: feel the warmth come back with an early spring walk, among the budding plants, snowdrops, animals and birds wakening up from their winter slumber, the first walk is a week on Thursday, the second main walk on the first weekend of march

[shaky]

Eerie silence on the mod thread!!nervous times!!

[shaky]

Oh my days i have never seen anything like that gfs 18z run!!didnt think it could top the 12z but it absolutely smashed it!!cold sets in sunday and just goes on forever!!sub zero maximums for much of next week!!-2 or -3 on monday!!

[Rich_T]

I keep expecting to see  the models do the usual u turn, and flipping to mild mus, before going back to some cooler but not as cold as modelled weather, a little bit of sleet perhaps, a litle bit of snow on the ground for an hour or so before the sun melts it, when will the U turn in the models occur?

[BarometerCat]

Mad set up on the GFS, have been watching this evolve via the Mod forum.  Insane cold on the way after the weekend possibly. I honestly believe no one really knows what will actually happen, it is that crazy ?.  

[andy_leics22]

Just on the night shift tonight and checked the models for the first time since Friday. All I can say is... WOW! What the heck is going on  even the ECM is showing a proper Easterly and that's the sensible model that rarely ramps up cold like the GFS!

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by andy_leics22

[BleakMidwinter]

8 hours ago, Barometer Cat said:

 I honestly believe no one really knows what will actually happen,

Nope, they don't, and a few of them in the MoD thread have been honest enough to say so

As far as I can make out, SSWs just aren't really known this late on in the cold season, so nobody really knows what will happen. Lots of people laying down the law with absolute certainty, as always  

Most of the people whose opinions in there I respect from experience seem agreed: it will be very cold. 
But the disagreement comes from the snowiness forecasts - apparently this is convective snow picked up over the North Sea - normally (!) an SSW would result in tons of snow picked up over a very cold North Sea, but because it's this late on, the sea temps are not as cold as earlier, so nobody knows if we do or don't get snow and if we do how much and where and so on... 

It's definitely going to be cold, though - I've been contacting family and friends to let them know because bugger-all anyone pays attention these days, it seems, except us  So if you know anyone elderly or disabled or pregnant, then maybe let them know they need to stock up on heavy shopping in the next day or so, because it's going to be very icy indeed at the least and possibly hugely snowy!

[BleakMidwinter]

There\s an interesting blog post about SSWs https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8730-sudden-stratospheric-warming-this-weekend-but-what-is-it-how-will-it-affect-our-weather

[BarometerCat]

28 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Nope, they don't, and a few of them in the MoD thread have been honest enough to say so

As far as I can make out, SSWs just aren't really known this late on in the cold season, so nobody really knows what will happen. Lots of people laying down the law with absolute certainty, as always  

Most of the people whose opinions in there I respect from experience seem agreed: it will be very cold. 
But the disagreement comes from the snowiness forecasts - apparently this is convective snow picked up over the North Sea - normally (!) an SSW would result in tons of snow picked up over a very cold North Sea, but because it's this late on, the sea temps are not as cold as earlier, so nobody knows if we do or don't get snow and if we do how much and where and so on... 

It's definitely going to be cold, though - I've been contacting family and friends to let them know because bugger-all anyone pays attention these days, it seems, except us  So if you know anyone elderly or disabled or pregnant, then maybe let them know they need to stock up on heavy shopping in the next day or so, because it's going to be very icy indeed at the least and possibly hugely snowy!

Even if some of the synoptic data appearing gets watered down there will still be some v.cold weather next week.  There is quite a buzz!  But yes, with that comes also increased risks to folks.  

I mean look at that for Leicestershire 850's, it's like suddenly switching something off! Boom! down it goes!!

Edited February 20, 2018 by Barometer Cat