The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[nobble]

???

[WalsallWeather123]

Mainly sleet in Midlands according to GFS. TWO GFS charts also show sleet as snow so they overplay it massively.

[BarometerCat]

Cold one today - still only 3c.  Yesterdays snow hung about til about 9-10am.  Not bad at all!

Reckon forecast is still yet to be resolved and depending on location.  This winter so far some of the best and most fun snow falls have been the ones not very well forecast or folks had low expectations of.   

[snowstorm27x]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Just as i was about to Through the towel in for Tuesday.  The Arpege  gives us a snow fest.  those pesky models.  Lol Backed up by the ICON

It's the hope that kills you lol. But still good to see other models backing the gfs now. Beep and Met still having none of it though. I think this will come down to the wire. Cheers for update.

[The Wolf]

BBC and Met having none of it for snow. Hope they are wrong but more likely they will be right. Still gutted about last night. Had virtually nothing here yet others nearby got a decent covering by the sounds of it.

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, The Wolf said:

BBC and Met having none of it for snow. Hope they are wrong but more likely they will be right. Still gutted about last night. Had virtually nothing here yet others nearby got a decent covering by the sounds of it.

Yes they dont seem to be buying into it   However the awful App as now changed to snow during the evening.   i wish it didnt  useless

[Daniel*]

3 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Just watched the BEEB with Matt.

Tomorrow they have the signs of a 'circulation' developing on the front to the SW, which crosses over us in pm.

They suggest that the sleet  will turn to snow before dieing out later.

We can but hope, after all it is the BBC! 

Todays figures.

Min -2.4C, currently -0.6C, dp -3.4, with a lovely pale blue sky, and a few aeroplane trails..

I'll do the reverse physcho trick. No sign of any showers today!! 

MIA

 

[weirpig]

Arome going for snow also.  So the Arpege Icon Arome going for snow.  Euro 4 and Importantly the Meto  not    we shall see

[Snowyowl9]

Coming into cold air start as snow,may stay as snow,cold air digs back in.

Wind Sly/SEly maybe a mini low.

[MattStoke]

Gorgeous morning.

[WalsallWeather123]

Hard to see snow tomorrow. Very mild outside. 

[weirpig]

Still very much up in the air  im expecting  rain but you never know.   The Arpege is prob the best of the models for our patch at the moment    maybe due to the fact that is brings in a small low which travels just to the south of us bringing a renewed push of precipitation on the northern flank.  perhaps something to keep an eye on  Edit  sorry posted above

Edited February 12, 2018 by weirpig

[snowstorm27x]

Latest beep update is not good and I think puts the final nail in the coffin for snow tomorrow. We might even struggle for sleet lol.

 

[Sparkiee storm]

Anyone know what the DPs are for tomorrow? 

[shaky]

41 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Still very much up in the air  im expecting  rain but you never know.   The Arpege is prob the best of the models for our patch at the moment    maybe due to the fact that is brings in a small low which travels just to the south of us bringing a renewed push of precipitation on the northern flank.  perhaps something to keep an eye on  Edit  sorry posted above

Gfs and arpege are the only models going for real snowfall potential!!when you look at the chart above you would auotomatically think that the event would be snow all the way especially with cold air ahead and behind the front!!oh and a southerly wind ahead!!

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Anyone know what the DPs are for tomorrow? 

From what ive seen  some say around 0 some say 1 above    then dropping as the front passes through.  

[weirpig]

Arpege  still showing snow. for the midlands  I think its going to be close but no cigar   some may see some wintryness   but on the whole low ground will be sleet    

Edited February 12, 2018 by weirpig

[Sparkiee storm]

Thanks @weirpig

Even that looking very marginal. 

Getting no hopes up, but just gonna check forecast in the morning and see what falls, if it snows then we will get another nice surprise .

[weirpig]

Right as we stand  just for fun  The icon has taken a step back   The GFS shows the same it has been for a few runs   the Arpege  is showing similar  but perhaps altitude is required  and  the Arome if anything is an upgrade on its 6z run      all very marginaL 

Edited February 12, 2018 by weirpig

[shaky]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Right as we stand  just for fun  The icon has taken a step back   The GFS shows the same it has been for a few runs   the Arpege  is showing similar  but perhaps altitude is required  and  the Arome if anything is an upgrade on its 6z run    

We still in the  game !!gfs extremely bullish for snow for the whole of the midlands again!!what i dont understand is the bbc forecasts were really interested in this snow event about 3 days ago and gfs looks exactly the same it did  back then!!so i dunno whats changed to be honest!!gfs can be somewhat less generous when it comes to a situation like tomorrow so its gona be a knife edge situation!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Great morning!

 

[syed2878]

midlands today going for  sno tomorrow according  The lunch time forecast two hours ago  and sleet.

[weirpig]

27 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Great morning!

 

Beautiful. My wife and I spent the night in Stafford Saturday. Left Sunday at midday so missed the fun  

[Staffordshire]

I would ignore the gfs regarding tomorrow, expecting a sleety wet mess, but wouldn't mind being pleasantly surprised.

[weirpig]

Just now, Staffordshire said:

I would ignore the gfs regarding tomorrow, expecting a sleety wet mess, but wouldn't mind being pleasantly surprised.

Yes and me. However surprises do happen with marginal events  massive flakes aswell so coverings will happen quickly