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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


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13 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

That weather warning that is expected to affect the West Mids is forecast to reach northern england by this evening, if so, it had better get a shift on.

Can't see it myself. 

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Anyone with a macro lens needs to go and photograph the amazing snowflakes falling right now. This is the best i can do

So, both hi res models over which whose territory this system is evolving - Hirlam and Arpege (both I would have a lot of respect for) - have very decent accumulations forecast by Friday morning from

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18 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

That weather warning that is expected to affect the West Mids is forecast to reach northern england by this evening, if so, it had better get a shift on.

Forecasting timings on snow is literally almost impossible, as we saw yesterday and have seen all week. You need to keep an eye on radar and forget warnings, apps, delayed TV forecasts. Some of the models show it stalling over the midlands until after midnight...if it's any slower than that it will be the early hours. Radar is your friend.

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2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Forecasting timings on snow is literally almost impossible, as we saw yesterday and have seen all week. You need to keep an eye on radar and forget warnings, apps, delayed TV forecasts. Some of the models show it stalling over the midlands until after midnight...if it's any slower than that it will be the early hours. Radar is your friend.

I know, it was just a casual comment on how poor those forecasts and warnings can be.

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2 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

It’s the band just pushing out of northern France now.

If im not mistaken i dont think its the band in france but the one thats developing across the m4 right now!!

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

If im not mistaken i dont think its the band in france but the one thats developing across the m4 right now!!

Me too, it might give it a small shove and a bit of food and energy as well.

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Just had a rather scary drive to Newhaven where I stopped and had a walk around (no choice as could not get any further). A number of lorries are stranded on the A515 just north of Newhaven and from talking to them they have been there since midday yesterday :shok:.

I am hoping they have been able to get moving now. On the plus side there were diggers moving the snow off the road and tractors ploughing it. On the down side there is so much drifting that the snow blows back over the road again and even after ploughing the roads are still very icy.

Regarding the snow tonight, the models appear to show it stalling just south of here. I really hope that doesn't happen, I want more snow....

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Like I said before, the ppn in the channel will join along the ppn currently in the south to deliver snow into the midlands. You're all looking for a feature that doesn't really exist yet. If it's still not visible by 2 or 3pm then yeah, the meto/models got it wrong.

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The problem with wishing the snow would hurry up and get here is that the faster it is heading north the less time it will spend in our region!

I think the green blob to the SE of Stratford could get here in the next half hour or so - unless, of course, it fizzles out before then.

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1 minute ago, ExileFromTheNorth said:

The problem with wishing the snow would hurry up and get here is that the faster it is heading north the less time it will spend in our region!

I think the green blob to the SE of Stratford could get here in the next half hour or so - unless, of course, it fizzles out before then.

Been tracking it for a while..looks like it could be a direct hit if it doesn't dissapate

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15 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Me too, it might give it a small shove and a bit of food and energy as well.

The band over the channel is meant to catch the one up currently around the m4 and feed energy into it i think

Edited by Matthew Gill
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Beginning to see signs of much heavier snow across central southern england!!also reports coming in from there thread that its snowing in a few places there after initially having some freezing rain!!

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12 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Like I said before, the ppn in the channel will join along the ppn currently in the south to deliver snow into the midlands. You're all looking for a feature that doesn't really exist yet. If it's still not visible by 2 or 3pm then yeah, the meto/models got it wrong.

Spot on.

You can see the PPN over the south midlands picking up already as the stuff to the south bumps into it and intensifies it.

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1 hour ago, marksp said:

Just a quick question.

i am due to pick up family from East Midlands Airport at 7.30pm, Do you think this system will cause problems this far North.

 

i have a 4x4 so can travel, but may leave earlier to avoid poor conditions, if its bad, family can always book into airport hotel, haha.

anyone help out with sensible predictions, I,m coming down from Peak District so need to prepare carefully.

 

A6 or a38 down  to a50 at Toyota island ?

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Snowing very lightly here in Bewdley. I thought it was just stuff blowing off trees etc, but no -- it's coming from the sky. Up to -0.4 °C now, which is the warmest it's been since Tuesday afternoon!

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11 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

The band over the channel is meant to catch the one up currently around the m4 and feed energy into it i think

 

5 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

Spot on.

You can see the PPN over the south midlands picking up already as the stuff to the south bumps into it and intensifies it.

Thank god a few people get it :D I thought I was going crazy :p

 

3 minutes ago, Vmistry said:

Ppn just seems to be going west again though??

Should change to N or NE as the track of the low moves, I believe so anyway.

Edited by kmanmx
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