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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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Deffo north movement on the gfs look at the dark pink colours getting into the midlands

IMG_20180228_164220.jpg

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1 minute ago, snowhope said:

@Glacier Point What are you thinking for Worcestershire (i am in Upton upon Severn, fairly near you I think) over the next few days GP? Looking at the Met and BBC latest forecasts we seem to be on the Eastern Edge of the precipitation with the heavy stuff missing us and going into wales and staying in the South West. Where would you anticipate to get hit the heaviest?

I'm looking forward to driving up to Bredon  (if I can) on Friday, but on the basis of what I'm seeing so far, I would go 8-10cms for our lowland locations, 10-20cms for more elevated. I was struck how well Hirlam, Arpege and EC performed during December's snow events. These three models would form the basis of current thinking for Thursday into Saturday.

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blizzard like in Halesowen for last 20 mins or so, covering pavements and side roads easily, can’t wait to see if tomorrow night comes off!

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2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

I'm looking forward to driving up to Bredon  (if I can) on Friday, but on the basis of what I'm seeing so far, I would go 8-10cms for our lowland locations, 10-20cms for more elevated. I was struck how well Hirlam, Arpege and EC performed during December's snow events. These three models would form the basis of current thinking for Thursday into Saturday.

For the first time in a long time I wish I still lived in Abergavenny!

I would be happy with that to! Working in Tewkesbury I am hoping its enough for a snow day :)

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Had a mini blizzard an hour ago, winds picked up to make visibility shocking, combined with blowing snow was quite unique. Gave a good dumping too.

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3 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

Deffo north movement on the gfs look at the dark pink colours getting into the midlands

IMG_20180228_164220.jpg

That has to be one of most depressing charts in history from IMBY perspective - clear space in the middle is right where Nottingham is, the snow shield is in full effect there! :wallbash::sorry:

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Next week is looking very interesting on the GFS. No moving of the cold with a possible channel low pushing snow into the Midlands. A long way out tho 

Screenshot_20180228-164643.png

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Had a high of -2.6C here today. Can't remember the last time it stayed that low. Maybe Dec 2010.

Very impressed with the snow showers penetrating well inland and giving us a decent covering.

All eyes on the low to the SW.

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Blizzardddddd here

Edited by Cov87
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Well I’m enjoying this mini blizzard and drifting,as I live on a hill and house faces north the wind is just howling up here. The road gets covered then the wind just blows it all off and into the curb 

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Goodness, a blizzard here right now, currently -3.0'C.

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7 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

I'm looking forward to driving up to Bredon  (if I can) on Friday, but on the basis of what I'm seeing so far, I would go 8-10cms for our lowland locations, 10-20cms for more elevated. I was struck how well Hirlam, Arpege and EC performed during December's snow events. These three models would form the basis of current thinking for Thursday into Saturday.

Hey GP, hope you are okay. 

Do we have any PPN breakdowns of Friday + Saturday instead of accumulation charts or any seperate accumulation charts from Friday lunchtime onwards, just to get an idea of what they look like after tomorrow's event in the SW/SW Midlands?

Thanks.

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Snow showers pushing in from the wash again!!

Indeed going to interesting again in about an hour I think. And no sun which is great

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Yes GFS is further north and east... still, nothing like to the same extent as ARPEGE and HIRLAM, both of which are also 6 to 9 hours ahead of GFS in terms of where the precipitation is at X time. Very odd to see such huge discrpencies at a 24 hour timescale. EURO4 is going to be very interesting.

Though, GFS basically has no capability in tracking the smaller showers and bands of rain. I mean, compare below.

 

GFS for 6pm today:

3bzPsCm.png

 

Actual radar:

ukMfY8z.png

 

It gets the large bulk of PPN around north England and Scotland, but fails miserably everywhere else.

Edited by kmanmx

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Quick video of what it was like here in that heavy snow shower. Visibility was worse for a human than it is for the camera, so this understates what it was like out there. It's a while since I've experienced anything like this!

 

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1 minute ago, Matthew Gill said:

Wind changing again slightly northeastaly?

Yes, I think slightly.

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7 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

Quick video of what it was like here in that heavy snow shower. Visibility was worse for a human than it is for the camera, so this understates what it was like out there. It's a while since I've experienced anything like this!

 

This was my walk home from school/work earlier. As you suggest the camera seems to lessen the actual scenario  

 

IMG_0292.JPG

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