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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


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Anyone with a macro lens needs to go and photograph the amazing snowflakes falling right now. This is the best i can do

So, both hi res models over which whose territory this system is evolving - Hirlam and Arpege (both I would have a lot of respect for) - have very decent accumulations forecast by Friday morning from

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Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
    1 minute ago, snowhope said:

    @Glacier Point What are you thinking for Worcestershire (i am in Upton upon Severn, fairly near you I think) over the next few days GP? Looking at the Met and BBC latest forecasts we seem to be on the Eastern Edge of the precipitation with the heavy stuff missing us and going into wales and staying in the South West. Where would you anticipate to get hit the heaviest?

    I'm looking forward to driving up to Bredon  (if I can) on Friday, but on the basis of what I'm seeing so far, I would go 8-10cms for our lowland locations, 10-20cms for more elevated. I was struck how well Hirlam, Arpege and EC performed during December's snow events. These three models would form the basis of current thinking for Thursday into Saturday.

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    Posted
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn
  • Location: Upton Upon Severn
    2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    I'm looking forward to driving up to Bredon  (if I can) on Friday, but on the basis of what I'm seeing so far, I would go 8-10cms for our lowland locations, 10-20cms for more elevated. I was struck how well Hirlam, Arpege and EC performed during December's snow events. These three models would form the basis of current thinking for Thursday into Saturday.

    For the first time in a long time I wish I still lived in Abergavenny!

    I would be happy with that to! Working in Tewkesbury I am hoping its enough for a snow day :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Extreme Weather
  • Location: Nantwich, Cheshire

    Had a mini blizzard an hour ago, winds picked up to make visibility shocking, combined with blowing snow was quite unique. Gave a good dumping too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
    3 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

    Deffo north movement on the gfs look at the dark pink colours getting into the midlands

    IMG_20180228_164220.jpg

    That has to be one of most depressing charts in history from IMBY perspective - clear space in the middle is right where Nottingham is, the snow shield is in full effect there! :wallbash::sorry:

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    Posted
  • Location: Rugby, Warks
  • Weather Preferences: Dangerous
  • Location: Rugby, Warks

    Had a high of -2.6C here today. Can't remember the last time it stayed that low. Maybe Dec 2010.

    Very impressed with the snow showers penetrating well inland and giving us a decent covering.

    All eyes on the low to the SW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Well I’m enjoying this mini blizzard and drifting,as I live on a hill and house faces north the wind is just howling up here. The road gets covered then the wind just blows it all off and into the curb 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL

    Goodness, a blizzard here right now, currently -3.0'C.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
    7 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    I'm looking forward to driving up to Bredon  (if I can) on Friday, but on the basis of what I'm seeing so far, I would go 8-10cms for our lowland locations, 10-20cms for more elevated. I was struck how well Hirlam, Arpege and EC performed during December's snow events. These three models would form the basis of current thinking for Thursday into Saturday.

    Hey GP, hope you are okay. 

    Do we have any PPN breakdowns of Friday + Saturday instead of accumulation charts or any seperate accumulation charts from Friday lunchtime onwards, just to get an idea of what they look like after tomorrow's event in the SW/SW Midlands?

    Thanks.

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  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    1 minute ago, shaky said:

    Snow showers pushing in from the wash again!!

    Indeed going to interesting again in about an hour I think. And no sun which is great

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    Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire

    Yes GFS is further north and east... still, nothing like to the same extent as ARPEGE and HIRLAM, both of which are also 6 to 9 hours ahead of GFS in terms of where the precipitation is at X time. Very odd to see such huge discrpencies at a 24 hour timescale. EURO4 is going to be very interesting.

    Though, GFS basically has no capability in tracking the smaller showers and bands of rain. I mean, compare below.

     

    GFS for 6pm today:

    3bzPsCm.png

     

    Actual radar:

    ukMfY8z.png

     

    It gets the large bulk of PPN around north England and Scotland, but fails miserably everywhere else.

    Edited by kmanmx
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  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl

    Quick video of what it was like here in that heavy snow shower. Visibility was worse for a human than it is for the camera, so this understates what it was like out there. It's a while since I've experienced anything like this!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
    1 minute ago, Matthew Gill said:

    Wind changing again slightly northeastaly?

    Yes, I think slightly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow, Snow and Cold
  • Location: Aldridge, West Midlands (180M)

    EURO 4 will be crucial in keeping our hopes alive...Positive Thinking:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford
    7 minutes ago, Arctic Hare said:

    Quick video of what it was like here in that heavy snow shower. Visibility was worse for a human than it is for the camera, so this understates what it was like out there. It's a while since I've experienced anything like this!

     

    This was my walk home from school/work earlier. As you suggest the camera seems to lessen the actual scenario  

     

    IMG_0292.JPG

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