The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[weirpig]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

GFS 18Z, may seem toy throwing, but kinda want this over, Atlantic back!

 

Shocking run this one. For snow  

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Shocking run this one. For snow  

Though the precip is not moving as far north into the Midlands, will be interesting to see what happens next, maybe another more active band could push up later in the weekend...

[MattStoke]

Massive downgrade from the GFS for the end of the week. Wonderful. Hope the ECM has got this one right. Model thread will be over the moon and calling it an upgrade. Bloody southerners.

Edited February 27, 2018 by MattStoke

[Matthew Gill]

18z looking poor for snow from the front on Friday/ Saturday for the midlands

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Shocking run this one. For snow  

As I said anything that can go wrong will go wrong. I will guarantee there will be enough trough disruption with that first low so that the snow doesnt make it up here. However it will mix in enough warm air so that the next (successful) attempt on Sunday will be a transient snow event at best before mild takes over.

[weirpig]

Hang on !! Hi res hirlam  moving north 

Edited February 27, 2018 by weirpig

[pegg24]

Heaviest snow of day in Northants now.

[PolarWarsaw]

17 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

This unfortunately, winds will be direct Easterly for about 3-6 hours sometime tonight and tomorrow morning before quickly veering Southeasterly. Anything that can go wrong has gone wrong.

Indeed, it just hasn't fallen for us this week. 

To be honest, I find it very hard to wax lyrical over any showery setup, let alone one from the 'coast that's further away' - you have to be so lucky to catch a heavy shower, or get in a 'train of them', they have to fall at a good time of day because they aren't persistent. It's one of the main reasons I struggled to get excited over this week. The west/central/sw midlands are probably amongst the 3 or 4 worst regions in the entire of Britain to be in during an easterly/north easterly, regardless of the strength of the wind, convection, etc - we are just too far inland to get a consistent rash of streaming showers, or any significant cover like those on the coast or just inland do, much like NE England/Scotland are having now and have had tomorrow - this kind of thing favours them. 

It is just my personal experience of course, but I find it hard to get excited by anything other than a proper North-Westerly driven Cheshire gap streamer, a Channel low or a slider. These are most efficient for bringing snow to this region and the rest brings, well, not a lot - unless you get lucky, troughs form or snow falls of a night time. I think this winter will probably be remembered for the 'tough and go setups' that delivered, rather than the pretty charts that didn't quite make it. But this winter has been a LOT better than all of the last 5, so it's hard to be too downbeat. 

Fingers crossed, something pops up early in the morning and brings us some more before the attention turns to Friday. 

Edit - Hideous looking GFS for snow this weekend. Whenever it can go wrong during widespread cold events...it really does. Only 1 run, but let's see where we are tomorrow night. A lot of the snow starved folk in this thread need to cross everything that we get something significant from this, or else that COULD be it for winter 17/18 - with the air modifying next week and being marginally too mild for snow, even if it is likely to stay a little chilly at the surface. Fingers crossed all. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by PolarWarsaw

[Matthew Gill]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Hang on !! Hi res hirlam 

I'm not buying it let me down too many times

[weather_it_will]

1 minute ago, pegg24 said:

Heaviest snow of day in Northants now.

The snow is breaking up on the radar over Northants so far.

I am hoping the shower over Kettering might reach here, but so far Northampton is acting as a snow shield.

[Dancerwithwings]

26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yesterdays

My apologies...Yours was t72 this one is t84...What makes it interesting then is that the low sinks back south, keeping the easterlies in place....

I wondered why the Met Office Chief Forecaster's said  "There is still uncertainty in how this system will develop"

Edited February 27, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[pegg24]

 

4 minutes ago, 'ColdIsBest' said:

The snow is breaking up on the radar over Northants so far.

I am hoping the shower over Kettering might reach here, but so far Northampton is acting as a snow shield.

In Corby seems to keep coming down heavy at the moment good covering now noticed gets past kettering and stops.

Edited February 27, 2018 by pegg24

[MattStoke]

See little point in being left high, cold and dry. Hope the GFS has it wrong. Will have all my friends and family in London posting snow photos while I don't see a flake.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

one thing, hopefully GFS 18Z is wrong, and for the bin, if it comes off, N,S.E.W, foot of snow, 1cm here

[sawan]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Massive downgrade from the GFS for the end of the week. Wonderful. Hope the ECM has got this one right. Model thread will be over the moon and calling it an upgrade. Bloody southerners.

I agree with the above. MOD mostly consists of London or Greater London based posters. It's not great, may be we need to up our skills to have a strong voice in the thread?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, sawan said:

I agree with the above. MOD mostly consists of London or Greater London based posters. It's not great, may be we need to up our skills to have a strong voice in the thread?

dare anyone to slag tonights 18Z off 

[Matthew Gill]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

dare anyone to slag tonights 18Z off 

Challenge accepted 

[Midlander]

Actually I feel even if the precip doesn't get as far north as the Midlands, thn maybe there will be a chance for another band which is far more intense/vigorous to move up and deliever some potential snow.

I actually don't feel too bad.

Edited February 27, 2018 by AppleUK 123

[Cov87]

Just write this week off and this stupid beast from the east..the most we are going to get is freezing cold nights that is about it..

[Dancerwithwings]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

dare anyone to slag tonights 18Z off 

DONE!!!

[matty40s]

 

just after 5pm this evening in N Leicestershire.

havnt had time to edit properly

[Midlands Ice Age]

Wow...

Tonight's Pub run has no breakdown to mild, until later next week with almost continuous snow for 3 days (think GEM).

The low stays south and slips into France,  leaving an elongated trough westwards thru the Channel.

What a turn a round from GFS

AMAZING.

Will it turnaround tomorrow.?

 I will be amazed now if it turns round again!

MIA

.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[The Wolf]

Absolute joke if we dont get decent event at the end of the week. What can go wrong has gone wrong. A complete and utter let down. Expect massive downgrades in forecasts tomorrow for the Midlands on Thursday and Friday. 

[markw2680]

I guarantee that come tomorrow night things will look so different regarding the end of the week shenanigans so why are we all so hung up on the runs today? It will either stall over us giving us sh** loads or it won’t make it we will no more tomorrow night and then Thursday so let’s see how it pans out.

i no it looks crap atm but even the pros are unsure where it’s going..

plenty more changes to come.

ps if it stays south dry and cold I’d rather take a gamble with it pushing north and turning milder if we get snow out of it tbh

[weather_it_will]

8 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

 

In Corby seems to keep coming down heavy at the moment good covering now noticed gets past kettering and stops.

There is virtually no wind here at all, which does not help.

What happened to the beast from the east. It's more like the fairy from the dairy.