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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


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2 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

GFS really doesn't look all that great to me, or am I missing something? Light to moderate snowfall for a few hours, surely wouldn't accumulate to more than 2-4cm?

probably, but would be a great wake up to Saturday, until full thaw sets in around midday

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Anyone with a macro lens needs to go and photograph the amazing snowflakes falling right now. This is the best i can do

So, both hi res models over which whose territory this system is evolving - Hirlam and Arpege (both I would have a lot of respect for) - have very decent accumulations forecast by Friday morning from

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3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

GFS really doesn't look all that great to me, or am I missing something? Light to moderate snowfall for a few hours, surely wouldn't accumulate to more than 2-4cm?

Its not amazing  but puts us under  moderate snow for nigh on 15 hours   ill take it.

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

probably, but would be a great wake up to Saturday, until full thaw sets in around midday

There might be a slight loss  but Saturday Midday its 0c    it wont be a full thaw  plus it will be cloudy as more precipitation is heading in.

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Nice showers today with settling in shady spots. Very powedery and mini drifts next to fences etc.

I guess with the main snow coming Friday now, I will be missing the final throw of the dice as I'm out of the country from Fri morning to Mon morning.

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This has been SUCH an odd day! Sunshine, snow, polystyrene at first then big wet flakes this afternoon, then the darn stuff is melting at 0'C! Now a clear, sunny sky!

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9 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

So being serious lads do you think Stoke will get much out of Fridays system or will it do the usual and finish at Stafford lol

Personally I don't think anywhere will get more than 5cm as things stand, probably more likely 1-3cm across the midlands.

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Frustrating 2 days in Hinckley in relation to shower activity. 2 relatively decent showers only and no lying snow. Kinda hoped for something more. Think we won't get anymore really, might get some on Friday but won't amount to too much. Sorry to be a pessimist but as I write this I'm watching another shower miss us just to the north! lol 

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41 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

GFS really doesn't look all that great to me, or am I missing something? Light to moderate snowfall for a few hours, surely wouldn't accumulate to more than 2-4cm?

Remember this is the convective snow from the easterly, and apparently when it's this very dry powdery stuff it tends to produce much more accumulation than ordinary frontal snow - so instead of 1mm precipitation producing 1cm of snow, it can be more like 1mm = 3cm. That would man your 2-4cm might be 8-12cm... 

Watch and wait, I reckon! :) 

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@MattStoke - inbound to the NE. 

Even if that's the last shower, whatever it deposits (looks good on radar) that will stick around until tomorrow with predominately clear skies. 

Just in time for sun down - the perfect example of what we all need to hope to catch if tonight is to deliver.

Signs of the radar fading away already though and without convection apparent with the sun, no troughs forecast, it's going to be getting lucky on isolated flurries at best for 95% of us tonight (east fairing marginally better). 

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I've got a bit of a problem. I just went down and not only swept and salt-gritted the steps out to the carpark for when my chap gets home (and put tons of raisins and suet out for the birds) but also swept and salt-gritted the front steps that we never use. 

As a result I'm now glowing radiantly with smug virtue, and I'm a bit worried this will melt the snow-cover we still have... ;)

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2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

@MattStoke - inbound to the NE. 

Even if that's the last shower, whatever it deposits (looks good on radar) that will stick around until tomorrow with predominately clear skies. 

Just in time for sun down - the perfect example of what we all need to hope to catch if tonight is to deliver.

Signs of the radar fading away already though and without convection apparent with the sun, no troughs forecast, it's going to be getting lucky on isolated flurries at best for 95% of us tonight (east fairing marginally better). 

Yeah. Praying it doesn't die! Still got a patchy dusting left from the last shower.

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12 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Personally I don't think anywhere will get more than 5cm as things stand, probably more likely 1-3cm across the midlands.

 

Think you will be wrong on that judging by what the ECM and GFS are showing.

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