The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Gustywind said:

 Looks bitterly cold but mainly dry for most of the Midlands next week (based on Met Office forecast for area and Net Weather local forecast). Surprised not more shower activity isn’t showing up yet given very low uppers, instability and strength of the Easterly wind.

Do peeps expect the above to change nearer the time or are we going to end up looking longingly eastwards as those areas get battered with snow?

models poor with convective showers, and tv forecasts too

[Rich_T]

It will be interesting if the BBCs all new partner, Meteo group say nothing to worry about, and the met office start issuing warnings for ice/snow/cold.

 

BBC Forecast - Earlier on today someone apparently from Exeter phoned the BBC and said there was some seriously cold weather on the way, well if your watching, don't worry there isn't; but having said that the weather will become a little cooler into next week, but most of the cold weather will remain in the continent with just a few early morning frosts....................

........... for the latest forecast why not take a look at the BBC weather app

[Snowyowl9]

February 28th 2006 but that was a N-ly that gave a blizzard,drifting like crazy in the showers.

Showers will be picked up nearer the time.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Snowyowl9

[Midlands Ice Age]

As others have reported  the temperature has fallen since mid morning as cloud spread in.

Fell from 4.2C to 3.0C by mid- afternoon.

The skies then cleared at sunset and we are now down at -2.0C already.

The air is dry as the dp is  -5.7C

BBC 6:30 forecast says the cold air wont be arriving until Monday, and any snow is still to be determined.

 Blooming Baltic I reckon already.

MIA

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Unreal 12Z's today! could be digging ourselves out!

[bearing]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Unreal 12Z's today! could be digging ourselves out!

Great, I love school snow days...

[Snowy L]

17 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

As others have reported  the temperature has fallen since mid morning as cloud spread in.

Fell from 4.2C to 3.0C by mid- afternoon.

The skies then cleared at sunset and we are now down at -2.0C already.

The air is dry as the dp is  -5.7C

BBC 6:30 forecast says the cold air wont be arriving until Monday, and any snow is still to be determined.

 Blooming Baltic I reckon already.

MIA

Think a lot of people have forgot the cold spell has already started. 4 very hard frosts on the way before the fun begins on Monday.

[Cov87]

Looking at the weather apps for our region next week it looks mostly dry for the west midlands..so i dont get this talk of all this 'disruptive snow'

[Snowy L]

1 minute ago, Cov87 said:

Looking at the weather apps for our region next week it looks mostly dry for the west midlands..so i dont get this talk of all this 'disruptive snow'

There is your problem.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, bearing said:

Great, I love school snow days...

vintage aren't they! like going back to  80's and 90's

[Rich_T]

3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

There is your problem.

An even greater problem, is that for many people, what the weather apps say is their primary source of information on the weather.

 One of the 'community' groups i'm involved with will be having a few early spring walks/late winter , one on Wednesday and another the first weekend of March, with some encouraging lines such as " enjoy the last of the snowdrops, and the fresh budding daffodils as the sun regains its warmth from its winter slumber"  Even had a message saying that all is still on, and to ignore the media hype as the BBC weather app is showing dry ( but not possibly not as warm as previous years)

[bearing]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

vintage aren't they! like going back to  80's and 90's

Listening to Beacon, hoping the school was shut.  Mind you, just because the school was open, didn't mean the coach would turn up or a note wouldn't come round mid-morning to ask all coach kids to meet in the hall at lunchtime ready to be collected early.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

could have 2 weeks holiday this February

19th Nov '96, legendary, most teachers couldn't get in, we were sent home

Edited February 22, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[markw2680]

Sorry why do people even look at those stupid weather apps? They are utterly useless other than a few hours, plus the bbc won’t even really mention snow until the weekend but even then they won’t have a clue where will get what unless u live in the east. The heavy snow showers will develop and push right across the region I’m sure from about Monday evening 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

Sorry why do people even look at those stupid weather apps? They are utterly useless other than a few hours, plus the bbc won’t even really mention snow until the weekend but even then they won’t have a clue where will get what unless u live in the east. The heavy snow showers will develop and push right across the region I’m sure from about Monday evening 

I never bother with 'em, not be on here most of Monday evening, but could be when we see our first flakes

[Gustywind]

Not just weather apps, the net weather forecast for Solihull for example shows pretty much nothing till Friday.

[markw2680]

10 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Not just weather apps, the net weather forecast for Solihull for example shows pretty much nothing till Friday.

That’s because they won’t pick up on showers yet. I’ll be in total shock if it’s dry until Friday, it certainly won’t be going by the latest models

[Gustywind]

Just now, markw2680 said:

That’s because they won’t pick up on showers yet. I’ll be in total shock if it’s dry until Friday, it certainly won’t be going by the latest models

Check the model thread, a chart there shows nothing south of Stoke and West of Norfolk. North of Stoke gets plastered from coast to coast.

Dont get it as we’re further away from the high pressure and don’t really believe it, but it’s what the charts are showing.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Gustywind said:

Check the model thread, a chart there shows nothing south of Stoke and West of Norfolk. North of Stoke gets plastered from coast to coast.

Dont get it as we’re further away from the high pressure and don’t really believe it, but it’s what the charts are showing.

we need setup further South, at least from what that model is showing, 

[Arctic Hare]

Temperature -2.2 °C here now and falling gently. As has been mentioned, it's already cold. Not exceptional, sure, but it's not balmy out there!

[markw2680]

Let’s just wait and see but if we don’t get snow next week there’s something seriously wrong

[80sWeather]

5 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Check the model thread, a chart there shows nothing south of Stoke and West of Norfolk. North of Stoke gets plastered from coast to coast.

Dont get it as we’re further away from the high pressure and don’t really believe it, but it’s what the charts are showing.

I’m in a bit of a dilemma as being in West Cambs I’m almost in the Midlands, thus I often lurk in here. I understand the caution by many members in here, as every Easterly I’ve witnessed Essex and Kent getting smashed and my location bone dry and cold ( especially Dec 2010 with heavy snow to the North and South of me) so hoping this cold spell breaks the trend and we all see some proper snow and cold.

Ive seen the chart you’ve mentioned and agree it’s rather odd how snow makes it all the way across the North yet only 50 miles inland South of the wash, I’m wondering if it’s the longer sea track for the precipitation further North that has been picked up here?

[Sparkiee storm]

Apps will probably be no good even at the time, radar watching is 99% more accurate so that's what i'll be doing, I never look at any apps, just a waste of time. 

[MattStoke]

Automated forecasts don't pick up on convection.

Our region is likely to see snow showers throughout the week. This setup is perfect for heavy, frequent snow showers from coast to coast.

Tuesday may bring a spell of longer snow as a trough comes in off the North Sea.

Edited February 22, 2018 by MattStoke

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Automated forecasts don't pick up on convection.

Our region is likely to see snow showers throughout the week. Tuesday may bring a spell of longer snow as a trough comes in off the North Sea.

cool, SS posted it in SSW cold spell thread, end of the week though feel track will be SE of here