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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

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Unbelievable 06z gfs!!bitterly cold from sunday afternoon all the way into FI!!And plenty of snow subzero temps and -15 windchill😲😲!!think its gona upgrade even more on the 12z!!

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This set up is reminiscent of some stonkers from my youth - the East Midlands used to be a prime spot and will probably be so next week 

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1 hour ago, shaky said:

Unbelievable 06z gfs!!bitterly cold from sunday afternoon all the way into FI!!And plenty of snow subzero temps and -15 windchill😲😲!!think its gona upgrade even more on the 12z!!

a bit north for my liking, could do with setup further south, looks like even streamers for N UK, then less cold for S

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

a bit north for my liking, could do with setup further south, looks like even streamers for N UK, then less cold for S

Yeh want a very slight shift southwards on the 12z and more tightly packed isobars like the ecm!!be better for us further south!!

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Plenty of snow chances next week and significant cold. Can't wait!

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47 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh want a very slight shift southwards on the 12z and more tightly packed isobars like the ecm!!be better for us further south!!

Yes possibly  however to far out to consider  but both ECM and Icon give us a streamer next week from the north east.  Mind you anything could pop up in the flow 

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This from the Icon  way out for next Tuesday  however its nice to see.  This lot will spread way inland. 

iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png

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9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

This from the Icon  way out for next Tuesday  however its nice to see.  This lot will spread way inland. 

iconeu_uk1-1-120-0.png

This is what I am most interested in at the moment, it will be interesting to see how this feature develops over the coming days.

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10 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

This is what I am most interested in at the moment, it will be interesting to see how this feature develops over the coming days.

Yes  The Icon is more Hi Res  than most i believe. This feature was also on the ECM.  Certainly something to keep an eye on  looking at the evolution its heading South West  so that would engulf the whole of the region.  Exciting times  Will it be included on the fax charts?.  actually i expect its this trough?.

Met Office Fax Synoptic Chart

 

 

Edited by weirpig

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16 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes  The Icon is more Hi Res  than most i believe. This feature was also on the ECM.  Certainly something to keep an eye on  looking at the evolution its heading South West  so that would engulf the whole of the region.  Exciting times  Will it be included on the fax charts?.  actually i expect its this trough?.

Met Office Fax Synoptic Chart

 

 

You're right, hopefully it will maintain intensity as it crosses the country. I suspect that is the feature on the fax chart hanging off the coast of Norway.

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1 minute ago, Staffordshire said:

You're right, hopefully it will maintain intensity as it crosses the country. I suspect that is the feature on the fax chart hanging off the coast of Norway.

I thought it was the Trough over East Anglia   seems spot on with the Icon    anyway  be good to see how it evolves.

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Cold out there today 1.6c it's been dropping since mid morning.

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40 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I thought it was the Trough over East Anglia   seems spot on with the Icon    anyway  be good to see how it evolves.

The date says Monday at 12, it shouldn't be near our Eastern coast at that time, also, it seems to Southerly to be that trough I would imagine.

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3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

The date says Monday at 12, it shouldn't be near our Eastern coast at that time, also, it seems to Southerly to be that trough I would imagine.

Yes your right  didnt clock the time on the Fax.  That Trough must be another little feature

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Who does met check use for their forecast ?

892983E2-11AD-4394-9E4B-3C5AF0205F6D.png

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23 minutes ago, Wadey said:

Who does met check use for their forecast ?

892983E2-11AD-4394-9E4B-3C5AF0205F6D.png

They use a blend of models - says at the bottom of the page. Whether that’s a good thing... 🤔

FF13ACFD-0977-4724-8867-BAF1116ABF12.png

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Today's stats: min 1.3 °C; max 4.5 °C. But as it's already down to 1.7 °C, today's minimum isn't going to stand much longer! 

I would have posted that a little earlier, but I've been distracted by the model output!

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Ay mr Wheeler,  saw your post in model thread , great GFS and UKMO! but Arpege balls as Frosty posted, need a key EC, not north (GFS 06Z) and certainly not south like that chart Frosty posted

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 Looks bitterly cold but mainly dry for most of the Midlands next week (based on Met Office forecast for area and Net Weather local forecast). Surprised not more shower activity isn’t showing up yet given very low uppers, instability and strength of the Easterly wind.

Do peeps expect the above to change nearer the time or are we going to end up looking longingly eastwards as those areas get battered with snow?

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I expect the roads to be blocked by drifting snow by next Friday.

Wind turned SE now light and cloudy 1c a black frost tonight the way its going.

Edited by Snowyowl9

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