The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[MKN]

Lets hope that area sees some precip push in over the next couple of hours. If all the precip out there currently maintains intensity you would have to think it will head into it. 

[Staffordshire]

Just now, PolarWarsaw said:

At this point, I'd rather it was stranded in Scotland - I'd much sooner it be completely off the table than so agonisingly close that it's just a frustration.

Apart from, if you were in Scotland, you'd probably be under a foot of snow too.

 

i would love to see a complete accumulation chart for this week, I would imagine there is about a 30m high, 50mike wide rectangle over us that will end up snowless.

 

snow all across the east, snow from the polar low in the NW, plenty of snow in Ireland today and more over the next 2 days, and snow in the SE tomorrow.

[WinterWilf]

Missing burton by the smallest margins all night. Joke really. Had a dusting so far

[weirpig]

Wow only a short time till the low and hirlam sticking to its guns. Way north  precipitation not as heavy as last run but still a differenceb

Edited February 28, 2018 by weirpig

[MKN]

1 minute ago, Staffordshire said:

Apart from, if you were in Scotland, you'd probably be under a foot of snow too.

 

i would love to see a complete accumulation chart for this week, I would imagine there is about a 30m high, 50mike wide rectangle over us that will end up snowless.

 

snow all across the east, snow from the polar low in the NW, plenty of snow in Ireland today and more over the next 2 days, and snow in the SE tomorrow.

Very similar happened during 2010. Im sure i remember a pic of nearly the entire uk covered then barring a small triangle in the midlands. 

[PolarWarsaw]

2 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:

Apart from, if you were in Scotland, you'd probably be under a foot of snow too.

 

i would love to see a complete accumulation chart for this week, I would imagine there is about a 30m high, 50mike wide rectangle over us that will end up snowless.

 

snow all across the east, snow from the polar low in the NW, plenty of snow in Ireland today and more over the next 2 days, and snow in the SE tomorrow.

Pretty much - it's ironic that normally our best snow bringer is the 'slider' and even this weekends 'low' looks like missing us marginally, it's the kind of thing that makes you want to give up really isn't it?

[kmanmx]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Wow only a short time till the low and hirlam sticking to its guns. Way north 

Yeah still looking good on Hirlam overall, 18z has it arriving a little earlier, much of midlands covered by 1 or 2pm, but by 6pm it's considerably weaker and more west than 12z. Still great though, we get a good 6 hours of snow.

Odd that Hirlam shifts it west and GFS brings it east, all the models are really struggling with this and disagreeing quite a lot.

Edited February 28, 2018 by kmanmx

[markw2680]

There you go Matt your in it now ?

[PolarWarsaw]

Just now, MKN said:

Very similar happened during 2010. Im sure i remember a pic of nearly the entire uk covered then barring a small triangle in the midlands. 

I don't think it was completely clear, but the snow was far 'thinner' as such. 

The last couple of 'big freezes' (2010 + this week, March 2013 can't be considered as that was a different setup) - have delivered the least snow anywhere in Britain in a 50 mile radius from Birmingham east to Leicester and north to about Cheshire. It's why I didn't let myself get OTT excited last week. Regardless of the strength of wind, the depth of uppers, the convection - this area just DOES NOT do well in easterlies, it's that simple. 

[sawan]

According to HILRAM the band of snow currently over london will dissipate before getting to us 

[sub zero]

Pepping up again here in se Nottingham , about 7cm here now from the wash streamer...

 

[shaky]

Hmm dunno what to think of hirlam!!further north but lighter precipitation!!expect not as much accumulations this run!!

[cyclonic happiness]

Just now, sawan said:

According to HILRAM the band of snow currently over london will dissipate before getting to us 

Latest met office video forecast does show troughs being thrust northwestwards as the night and morning go on. so hopefully we'll be ok

[kmanmx]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Hmm dunno what to think of hirlam!!further north but lighter precipitation!!expect not as much accumulations this run!!

Honestly every model seems to disagree with each other. Quite amazing considering it's about 12 to 18 hours away.  Check the Hirlam for France and compare it to the French radar here http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/france.html

Also compare the Arpege and GFS to the France radar. The precipitation is a good 50 to 100 miles further north than any of the models have it (though Hirlam is closest), and the precipitation in France extends right across the country, but none of the models are showing the precipitation in the east of France. So weird, they look like they're all doing a bad job to my eye. 

I think Chris Fawkes is right, this is going to arrive earlier than the models are predicting unless the first 50 miles of precipitation in France vanishes :\

Edited February 28, 2018 by kmanmx

[MattStoke]

13 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Why so negative Matt? I told you a few days ago that we don't do great from Easterlies. As it is, yes some of the snow melted today, but any out of the sun didn't & the late afternoon showers covered everywhere. It was always going to be that way at this time of year. Dry snow & wind means that areas will always be blown clear of snow & what little remains gets melted whatever the time of year as even a weak sun warms the ground a little.

Frustrated. We've had the snow showers, really heavy at times, they just keep occurring at the wrong time. They hit during the day when the sun melts the snow rapidly and then they miss here at night. Watched countless snow showers weaken rapidly once they get anywhere near Stoke, and watching tonight's Wash streamer head a few miles to my south.

Then we appear to be out of luck for Thursday, with the snow likely staying to the SW of here. Literally about 10 miles outside of the warning area. Been outside of 2 amber warnings by about 20 miles this week. 

Might have more luck for Friday but the computer models showing virtually nothing left of the front once it reaches here will probably be right, by the law of sod.

[markw2680]

It really will be a nowcast situation tomorrow, think we should all stop worrying and get some sleep and see what the state of play will be then. Night all ?

[Snowy L]

3 inches of snow accumulated now, making this the best snow event of the winter. Had to wait until the last day of winter, but worth it.

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

It really will be a nowcast situation tomorrow, think we should all stop worrying and get some sleep and see what the state of play will be then. Night all ?

Goodnight Mark, lets stay positive and hope for heavier precip moving northwards, across all parts of the W.Midlands, we have seen how 'easy' it is to lose and gain Warnings...stay positive and hope for the best.

Edited February 28, 2018 by AppleUK 123

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Only a dusting here as well but it's a little different to usual in that its very fine powdery stuff that was blown around a lot. It reminds me of sand really. Shame that were only getting the dregs though, as if we had something substantial I'm sure there would be drifting. Oh well it is what it is and we can only hope that we'll get a surprise but as others have said easterlies have always been a bit hit and miss this far west, even February 1986 didn't give much snow here I believe and it seems to be people from other parts who remember that month for lots of snow.

[weirpig]

Arpege north and east aswell. Bizarre 

[RobR]

Well I'm seeing on Rain Today a whole batch of showers heading straight for Stoke through the night. Yes that early streamer was a little south, but I can tell you having just walked the dog, there is certainly flurries in the air. And the wind is even worse than this afternoon, real biting now.

[Midlander]

Just now, weirpig said:

Arpege north and east aswell. Bizarre 

Better than HIRLAM?

[Rich_T]

In these parts the so called beast is acting as a tyoical beast.

 they are either docile things that dont do much, or aggressive beasts that leave you in no doubt of whats in charge.

This "beast from the East" is more akin to the large bull in a field, lying down in front of the style you need to get across, and refusing to budge, until youve gently rubbed its head

 

[shaky]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Arpege north and east aswell. Bizarre 

What are the accumulation charts looking like?!!this is going down to the wire!!

[snowqueen1979]

Incoming!  Let's hope it pushes it's way through.