The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[Vmistry]

His res 0z Arome for thursday, hopefully pushes more NE

Edited February 28, 2018 by Vmistry

[snowstorm27x]

Looks all upgrades to me for end of the week especially from the gfs Met also have me down for many hours of snow today especially afternoon when heavy snow is possible. Nice and white outside bitterly cold. Happy days.

[Midlander]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wow arpege gives 15-20cms of snow for midlands!!how is the ecm looking today?

Ecm looking fine, though not as good as Arpege, which is probably a good thing, since Arpege is High Res.

[sawan]

I think it was quite difficult to get the precipitation from the southwest or even southeast, our only chance is a battle ground scenario setting up either from the east or west.  

[Glacier Point]

Ec is around 10cms. Take hirlam, ec and arpege as the best guidance

[sawan]

Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

Ecm looking fine, though not as good as Arpege, which is probably a good thing, since Arpege is High Res.

Is this for Thursday and Friday? 

[V for Very Cold]

-7C when I got in the car this morning

It is definitely chilly!

[Cov87]

Just now, AppleUK 123 said:

Ecm looking fine, though not as good as Arpege, which is probably a good thing, since Arpege is High Res.

What we need is a eastward movement on that low the bbc hinted this in their earlier forecast if that happens we will get buried

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Ec is around 10cms. Take hirlam, ec and arpege as the best guidance

Really ?  Do you expect the low to push further north ? 

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Ec is around 10cms. Take hirlam, ec and arpege as the best guidance

Is that for the midlands as a whole!!the good thing is the amount have not changed much on the ecm from last nights runs i think!!

[Vmistry]

3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Ecm looking fine, though not as good as Arpege, which is probably a good thing, since Arpege is High Res.

Have you got a link to the Arpege?

[Midlander]

1 minute ago, Cov87 said:

What we need is a eastward movement on that low the bbc hinted this in their earlier forecast if that happens we will get buried

Yes, what did the BBC say, they expect an eastwards correction?

[sawan]

1 minute ago, Cov87 said:

What we need is a eastward movement on that low the bbc hinted this in their earlier forecast if that happens we will get buried

The low moving up is under pressure from the northeast, so precipitation dies out before it reaches the Midlands  

[stokepa31]

BBC national forecast now includes friday. they are still going for snow pushing north. im not so convinced

[Midlander]

Just now, Vmistry said:

Have you got a link to the Arpege?

 

[matty40s]

5 minutes ago, sawan said:

The low moving up is under pressure from the northeast, so precipitation dies out before it reaches the Midlands  

The low itself looks like being pushed westwards again by the string flow and block,  but there will be a wide swathe of a front that pushes off it over the Midlands.

[Vmistry]

4 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

 

Oh I thought that was the ECM snow chart hahaha 

[Cov87]

8 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Yes, what did the BBC say, they expect an eastwards correction?

They said at the moment they think it will move west but there is still a chance it could move east

[kmanmx]

Need EURO4 06z to come out, the 00z finished at t48 just as it arrives, looks like it won't get too far into the midlands but one thing we can verify from this week is that every single model is pretty poor at modeling how far inland the precipitation gets. Wouldn't be surprised to see lighter stuff go all the way up to north midlands, even if it's not modelled. Seen similar things happen several times this winter.

 

In other news, -6c in the car this morning (I live rural). Brrrrrrrrrrrr!, and about 1cm of snow. Looked pleasant and crisp, nice surprise.

Edited February 28, 2018 by kmanmx

[Staffordshire]

6 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

 

Anyone fancy a trip to the east coast of Ireland?

 

Biting cold this morning, probably the first time in a few years where I've been in a proper hurry to get out of it.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

12 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Ec is around 10cms. Take hirlam, ec and arpege as the best guidance

Do you still think we will see some convection this afternoon? There was one model you mentioned yesterday I can't remember which one? 

[MattStoke]

Walking to work. It's minus 6 degrees, there's a biting easterly wind, snow on the ground and flurries in the air. I feel surprisingly warm and comfortable!

Looks like a batch of snow showers will move through the Midlands today as winds change to the SSE.

Edited February 28, 2018 by MattStoke

[weirpig]

Ecm take on the troublesome low 

[Sweatyman]

Showers moving from NE now!

[snowstorm27x]

Wind direction has switched now should be better for more showers getting inland and keeping there intensity. Light snow already falling here. Gd luck evreone. Car says -7