The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[PolarWarsaw]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

U used to be radders? haven't a clue what my password is, log in through facebook, 

used to do well off an E'ly, '94, '95, '96 and '97, even in the christmas pudding, 2010 was good

That's me, glad to see you around still. Mark is it? Still down in Rugeley, so just a stones throw away. 

Completely agree, but these are becoming few and far between these days. The Cheshire gap and/or a slider scenario normally come In clutch for us. 

I tend to find 'narnia' scenarios being modelled tend to work out well for the 'golden regions' but less so for us stranded in the middle of the country. 

Despite perhaps seeming downbeat above, I do believe we will all see falling snow on at least 1 other day this week....just whether it's significant and/or accumulating that is the big question!

[markw2680]

I reckon if enough of us could throw loads of talcum powder out of some high rise flats around brum it might register on the radar and give us all a covering

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

That's me, glad to see you around still. Mark is it? Still down in Rugeley, so just a stones throw away. 

Completely agree, but these are becoming few and far between these days. The Cheshire gap and/or a slider scenario normally come In clutch for us. 

I tend to find 'narnia' scenarios being modelled tend to work out well for the 'golden regions' but less so for us stranded in the middle of the country. 

Despite perhaps seeming downbeat above, I do believe we will all see falling snow on at least 1 other day this week....just whether it's significant and/or accumulating that is the big question!

Dec 10th '17 was great, 8th not so, as we were too far East

[snowstorm27x]

12 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

For some reason the mids thread has the most wrist slashers all in one place.

Why so negative all the time just chill the #^$&$% out I have noticed this for years it makes me think twice before coming on lol. 

Sorry to hear that mate I think alot of it is just banter and some take the models or forecasts as gospel and get upset when it dosent work out. Dosent make it any worse than the others threads tbh. We're all weather lovers at heart.

[Kirton Snowman]

What's people's thoughts on Uttoxeter considering I'm in the very north of the region?

[Bishop Brennan]

9 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

That's me, glad to see you around still. Mark is it? Still down in Rugeley, so just a stones throw away. 

Completely agree, but these are becoming few and far between these days. The Cheshire gap and/or a slider scenario normally come In clutch for us. 

I tend to find 'narnia' scenarios being modelled tend to work out well for the 'golden regions' but less so for us stranded in the middle of the country. 

Despite perhaps seeming downbeat above, I do believe we will all see falling snow on at least 1 other day this week....just whether it's significant and/or accumulating that is the big question!

Radders! Hello mate, I remembered you the other day when I resumed posting on here for the first time in ages. Good to have you back with us 

Are you the chap who used to live near to a power station or something, or am I getting you mixed up with somebody else?

Bish

[Serendipity]

Ignoring tomorrow/Friday/the weekend, it is actually snowing here right now and settling. Very light but the snow is so dry and powdery it is blowing around and leaving a lovely dusting.

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, Uttoxeter snow said:

What's people's thoughts on Uttoxeter considering I'm in the very north of the region?

Looking at the radar of i would suggest you will see an increase in lightish snow perhaps about 3 to 4am. Perhaps 1-5cms overnight for some in our region.

[Andypvfc]

Well just watched the met office vid for Friday. What a load of cobbers. Yeah a bit of Snow possible for Staffs, by hardly the deep epic event that people were expecting. 

[The Wolf]

5 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Well just watched the met office vid for Friday. What a load of cobbers. Yeah a bit of Snow possible for Staffs, by hardly the deep epic event that people were expecting. 

 

Forecasters appear pretty clueless at present. Forecasts seem to change by the hour!

[Bishop Brennan]

4 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Well just watched the met office vid for Friday. What a load of cobbers. Yeah a bit of Snow possible for Staffs, by hardly the deep epic event that people were expecting. 

That sounds like they expect the LP to stay further south, which overall isn't necessarily a bad outcome if we want our region to retain the cold air.

Bish

[BarometerCat]

Be really surprised if north of the region does not get a bit more snow overnight. A lot going on out NE in the North Sea, potentially more to come. Not your normal set up, might be wrong- let's see tomorrow 

[weather_it_will]

We have a dusting of snow on the ground here from the last couple of hours of light snow. Can't complain.

It's nothing like 'the whole country will be buried in snow' predicted by the so called experts in the M.O thread.

 

[davehsug]

Most of the showers are being killed by the Moorlands for the Stoke area at the moment, a common occurrence. They need to be more intense to make it through. Watching the area of snow in the North East, although as it's mostly light, it may well suffer the same fate.

[MattStoke]

5 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Most of the showers are being killed by the Moorlands for the Stoke area at the moment, a common occurrence. They need to be more intense to make it through. Watching the area of snow in the North East, although as it's mostly light, it may well suffer the same fate.

It's heading west of us anyway.

[carled]

You know how things tend to start off as "Oh My God! EPIC snowfall coming" and gradually peter out into "oh - maybe just a few showers" and end up as "ah, just a bit of snizzle then..."?  Always seems the downgrades are the accurate predictions. When is the last time anyone can remember "Not going to get anything but a few flakes" turning into "Oh wow! We did NOT see THAT coming! Unbelievable turnaround to produce somethign from nothing!"

Just never seems to happen that way. Curious...

[davehsug]

Just now, carled said:

You know how things tend to start off as "Oh My God! EPIC snowfall coming" and gradually peter out into "oh - maybe just a few showers" and end up as "ah, just a bit of snizzle then..."?  Always seems the downgrades are the accurate predictions. When is the last time anyone can remember "Not going to get anything but a few flakes" turning into "Oh wow! We did NOT see THAT coming! Unbelievable turnaround to produce somethign from nothing!"

Just never seems to happen that way. Curious...

December 2017?

[BleakMidwinter]

7 minutes ago, 'ColdIsBest' said:

We have a dusting of snow on the ground here from the last couple of hours of light snow. Can't complain.

It's nothing like 'the whole country will be buried in snow' predicted by the so called experts in the M.O thread.

 

I haven't seen any of the more experienced bods in the Model thread say that. 

What I have seen, again and again, is posts in there and in here saying that this specific type of convective snow on an easterly is incredibly difficult to forecast, and that the Met Office warnings have to be widespread, because there can be no certainty about where any snow may land. They have to have a warning out, because there is potential for a helluva lot of snow - so they do the intelligent thing and have a warning that says, "don't know where, but it could be majorly disruptive".
Also, right from the start what was forecast to arrive today was the COLD. Not the snow. That was never forecast to arrive in any great quantity today - some snow possible on Mon/Tues, then bitterly bitterly coldER on Thursday, and potential for a totally different weather system to come up from the SW, possibly snow-bearing. 

Then everyone complains they haven't had their backyard transformed into Tan Hill in 1963... 

 

[carled]

3 minutes ago, davehsug said:

December 2017?

I don't remember that being a surprise - it was predicted (for my area at least) for days beforehand as "5-10cm" and I got exactly that!

[MattStoke]

Latest Euro4 snow accumulation by Wednesday morning.

Probably best I don't comment anymore during this could spell. Just let my disappointment get the better of me and don't intend to upset anyone. Enjoy the snow, those who get it.

Edited February 26, 2018 by MattStoke

[carled]

4 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

I haven't seen any of the more experienced bods in the Model thread say that. 

What I have seen, again and again, is posts in there and in here saying that this specific type of convective snow on an easterly is incredibly difficult to forecast, and that the Met Office warnings have to be widespread, because there can be no certainty about where any snow may land. They have to have a warning out, because there is potential for a helluva lot of snow - so they do the intelligent thing and have a warning that says, "don't know where, but it could be majorly disruptive".
Also, right from the start what was forecast to arrive today was the COLD. Not the snow. That was never forecast to arrive in any great quantity today - some snow possible on Mon/Tues, then bitterly bitterly coldER on Thursday, and potential for a totally different weather system to come up from the SW, possibly snow-bearing. 

Then everyone complains they haven't had their backyard transformed into Tan Hill in 1963... 

 

Not really. As of last night/this morning we were (mostly) under an Amber warning with 5-20cm of snow, depending on local happenings. That all disappeared early this afternoon.

[davehsug]

1 minute ago, carled said:

I don't remember that being a surprise - it was predicted (for my area at least) for days beforehand as "5-10cm" and I got exactly that!

It was always very marginal & most on here had virtually written it off & the Birmingham area widely got a foot of snow.

[carled]

4 minutes ago, davehsug said:

It was always very marginal & most on here had virtually written it off & the Birmingham area widely got a foot of snow.

Doesn't look very written off at the start of this thread, but anyway...

 

[BleakMidwinter]

7 minutes ago, carled said:

Not really. As of last night/this morning we were (mostly) under an Amber warning with 5-20cm of snow, depending on local happenings. That all disappeared early this afternoon.

Hang on, are you complaining about the Met Office Warnings, which are adjusted as new data is acquired, or are you complaining about the people who post in the Model Thread in here?

"It's nothing like 'the whole country will be buried in snow' predicted by the so called experts in the M.O thread. "

The people who post in the Model Thread don't run the Met Office, you know...

Today was always about the cold arriving, according to the models, as said again and again in here and in the Models thread. 

[Arctic Hare]

20 minutes ago, carled said:

You know how things tend to start off as "Oh My God! EPIC snowfall coming" and gradually peter out into "oh - maybe just a few showers" and end up as "ah, just a bit of snizzle then..."?  Always seems the downgrades are the accurate predictions. When is the last time anyone can remember "Not going to get anything but a few flakes" turning into "Oh wow! We did NOT see THAT coming! Unbelievable turnaround to produce somethign from nothing!"

Just never seems to happen that way. Curious...

8th December 2017. Cheshire Gap streamers are usually frustrating for Bewdley, as we're just that bit too far SW. I was expecting a dusting at best, but this one had exactly the right angle of attack and we got 8cm. That's substantial for this location, but we were very lucky -- I went to Worcester on the 9th and there was barely a covering. If it hadn't been for the exceptional fall (23cm) two days later, which was signalled as a possibility in advance, the 8th would be one I'd remember as a very notable event.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Arctic Hare
clarifying