The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

@shaky

 

Just watched the MetO forecast on youtube, and they have the heavy precipitation about 50 miles south of where the other models have it, our area in for a direct hit. Just as we hoped would happen !

Of course its about 40 hours away still so lots of time for it to change. But the Met Office have it down is quite likely

 

 

The timing could actually be quite terrible for me, just as I am driving to work it is due to hit. 

Have you got a link to it mate?!!also the warnings for the amount of snow are same as the yellow warnings so is it really worth upgrading it to an amber if you get what i mean!

[kmanmx]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Have you got a link to it mate?!!also the warnings for the amount of snow are same as the yellow warnings so is it really worth upgrading it to an amber if you get what i mean!

Yeah can see it here towards the end of the forecast 

 

 

The way MetO warning work is that while amber and yellow areas can be warned of similar snowfall totals, amber means they are much more confident of those totals occurring in that area wheras in the yellow areas many places within that warning zone will escape with much less snow. 

[MattStoke]

I can't understand why Wednesday's warning for the West Midlands has been cancelled. Nothing has changed.

[kmanmx]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I can't understand why Wednesday's warning for the West Midlands has been cancelled. Nothing has changed.

Met Office have their own internal higher resolution models than we have access to, as well as hundreds of experienced scientists. So in their eyes, clearly something has changed. There warnings are based on confidence thresholds too, if yellow requires 50% confidence, maybe their confidence for your area seeing snow dipped just under that confidence interval. Anyway like I said before I wouldn't give up just yet, snow events especially shower based ones (showers are harder to predict) are often updated right down to the 6 to 12 hours preceding them in terms of where it will snow and how much.

Edited February 25, 2018 by kmanmx

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I can't understand why Wednesday's warning for the West Midlands has been cancelled. Nothing has changed.

Yes a bit strange. Many twists and turns to come. 

[RAD]

Hi, another new member here although have been reading these forums for years!

I am due to fly into Birmingham Airport on Friday evening, and am feeling a little anxious regards to whether there will be any disruption to air travel.

I know that it is difficult to say with any certainty at the moment, but does anyone have any thoughts on how Friday's situation is likely to play out for Birmingham and to the west of Birmingham (Black Country)?

Thanks in advance.

 

[markw2680]

Warnings and precipitation forecasts will change frequently tbh, I’m pretty sure east wales eastward will get snow showers starting tomorrow, it’s going to be a very good week coming up

[weirpig]

Met office on overtime? Another amber this time for the north. Fun and games this week ? 

[BleakMidwinter]

51 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Hi Guys, new to this forum so good to meet you all all. As a taxi driver working around the Newcastle under Lyme area of Stoke on Trent, I'd be interested to see your thoughts on whether we can expect much for around here. I know this week tends to be showers so hard to forecast but what your thoughts on the low pressure coming in next Friday

 

Hi and welcome, Andy - I think the only definite thing to be said about the weather for this week coming is "wait and see"...! It's going to be icy and bitterly cold and very windy, those are pretty definite - but the snowfall... the models just are not reliably good at this particular set-up... 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi Guys....

An update on today.

incredible, Temperature of 4.7C, sunny with a wind-chill at 2.5C and a dew[point at -4.7C

What fantastic dry air

MIA 

[Bishop Brennan]

The weather is so beautiful today, glorious sunshine with barely any breeze.

Had a lovely walk round Knowle & the surrounds this morning, after all I might not get many more opportunities for exercise this coming week 

Currently 4.9°C here with a dp of -5.1°C

Bish

[Snowy L]

Here's something you don't see every day

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/observations

All the coldest locations at the moment are the buoys out at sea. Cold air will be on the coast any minute now.

[Bishop Brennan]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Here's something you don't see every day

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/observations

All the coldest locations at the moment are the buoys out at sea. Cold air will be on the coast any minute now.

Great spot, from hopefully the soon-to-be mostly aptly named poster on the forum! 

Bish

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Here's something you don't see every day

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/observations

All the coldest locations at the moment are the buoys out at sea. Cold air will be on the coast any minute now.

Crikey a way out but Friday-Sunday wow could be a couple of feet 

[MattStoke]

Could well change but, this is nice for Friday. Could be quite an event.

Images from the BBC website.

Edited February 25, 2018 by MattStoke

[WalsallWeather123]

ICON shows heaviest snow sliding quite far south. Worcestershire would do well from this.

[Wadey]

[MattStoke]

9 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ICON shows heaviest snow sliding quite far south. Worcestershire would do well from this.

Next update of the Euro4 should tell us more.

Bizarre that quite a few high resolution models show rain showers. Impossible next week.

[WalsallWeather123]

Just now, MattStoke said:

Next update of the Euro4 should tell us more.

Bizarre that quite a few high resolution models show rain showers. Impossible next week.

The rain must be a mistake. Strange its showing on quite a few model tho.

[weirpig]

Arpege brings it also right across the region  although a week feature 

Edited February 25, 2018 by weirpig

[WalsallWeather123]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Arpege brings it also right across the region 

Patchy and light tho. No significant accumulations

[I remember Atlantic 252]

late on, know it's 12Z's soon, but 06Z fantastic, Fridays low all snow, and further East, 0 degrees Saturday, more snow Sunday

key 12Z's coming up

[weirpig]

Wouldn't say no 

[shaky]

Upgrades all round so far for tuesday and now snow goes right through the midlands!!defo in line with the amber warning!!could be severe conditions come morning!!

[WalsallWeather123]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Wouldn't say no 

Low Res chart. No way will it be that significant. Patchy snow in West Midlands and North Midlands especially.