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The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington

Good  GFS run for us early next week   Streamer City     Showers piling in from the Wash area, No Pesky mountains in the way   all good  you can also see on the HI Res Arpege  the streamers setting up early Monday 

gfs-16-144.png?6arpege-1-72-0.png?23-11

Edited by weirpig
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent

Any ideas how cold night temps may be with or without snow cover during the course of the cold spell? Got small orange,  lemon & kumquat bushes in the greenhouse but no heating. Will it get as cold as 2010?

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
3 minutes ago, el tiempo said:

Any ideas how cold night temps may be with or without snow cover during the course of the cold spell? Got small orange,  lemon & kumquat bushes in the greenhouse but no heating. Will it get as cold as 2010?

Probably not too low due to wind and cloud, but it will be a severe penetrating frost nevertheless. It's under any deeper snowcover with clear skies and no wind that the really low temperatures occur.

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
3 hours ago, Cov87 said:

First met office warnings out for monday and tuesday..west midlands are out of the warning area..?

The Mon/Tues is only the first wave of deep cold - they reckon about 36 hours later the deep deep deep cold arrives and the Midlands are currently expected to get some  snows then, although how much is far from certain...

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Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
9 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

I know it's early to predict, but are the midlands likely to get much snow from this?

It's really uncertain - apparently this kind of snow, convective snow caused by cold air over warmer seas, is a real problem for the models - they forecast it but apparently are notoriously poor at estimating how far inland it goes. 
For us over in Telfordgrad, I'm expecting nothing much til mid-week. Then we may get an inch to look pretty or we may get a foot or two...! At least our Council has had practice recently at dealing with a foot of snow! 

So much is uncertain in this - we know we have cold weather arriving, deep cold at the start, and deep deep cold by midweek, but nobody knows whether this will be a 4-5 day event or a 3-week event... 

Put food out for wildlife, especially please try to keep putting out unfrozen water for them and if you walk past frozen ponds use a stick or stone to smash holes in the ice - and look after neighbours. I really hope we have a dramatic and exciting week out of this, rather than a month of real suffering for some... 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
41 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

I know it's early to predict, but are the midlands likely to get much snow from this?

not expecting much, Tuesdays trough way north of here, Friday low way south, need to rely on troughs in the E'ly flow, GFS 06Z gives us virtually nothing, but models convection off the sea poorly

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not expecting much, Tuesdays trough way north of here, Friday low way south, need to rely on troughs in the E'ly flow, GFS 06Z gives us virtually nothing, but models convection off the sea poorly

Its a strange one this   I havnt really seen this type of setup before  with very low uppers and very Low Thickness.    The Gfs 6z  does show showers activity making it to this region   but as you say the GFS in particular dose not  handle Convection very well.  i guess its a wait and see.  I know ive said this before but the low land in the east will mean showers will penetrate far inland 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
43 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Its a strange one this   I havnt really seen this type of setup before  with very low uppers and very Low Thickness.    The Gfs 6z  does show showers activity making it to this region   but as you say the GFS in particular dose not  handle Convection very well.  i guess its a wait and see.  I know ive said this before but the low land in the east will mean showers will penetrate far inland 

there is a chart in model thread upto Mar 2nd, gives us nothing at all, means nothing or does it? bbc gives me nothing also, and GFS

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Posted
  • Location: KIdderminster
  • Location: KIdderminster

 

If you watch this classic from 1991 you can see how the snow piled in off the North Sea. What I also think is amazing is how warm the East Coast of the USA was at the time. This is (as far as I can see) very similar to what is happening now. Lets hope Sunday nights weather forecast turns in to a classic !!

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Not the best positioned for snow here but, honestly, there will be huge snow showers absolutely piling in from the North Sea and pushing right across the country, we have nothing in the way to shelter us from it.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not the best positioned for snow here but, honestly, there will be huge snow showers absolutely piling in from the North Sea and pushing right across the country, we have nothing in the way to shelter us from it.

our area normally good, very good Nov 30th-Dec 2, 2010, but of course best time of the year due to warm seas, and this is a 5 day beast (mon-fri) maybe longer,

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

our area normally good, very good Nov 30th-Dec 2, 2010, but of course best time of the year due to warm seas, and this is a 5 day beast (mon-fri) maybe longer,

Wash streamer?

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
  • Location: Shrewsbury,Shropshire
2 hours ago, Ian Ballinger said:

I know it's early to predict, but are the midlands likely to get much snow from this?

Models are all very well & good but TBH the December event (which turned out to be the most snow I'd seen since 2013 :D ) was not forecast well at all for us here. Keep your eye on these two for a much better idea of where things are heading   :)

https://en.sat24.com/en

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
12 minutes ago, kiddydaz said:

 

If you watch this classic from 1991 you can see how the snow piled in off the North Sea. What I also think is amazing is how warm the East Coast of the USA was at the time. This is (as far as I can see) very similar to what is happening now. Lets hope Sunday nights weather forecast turns in to a classic !!

Cool, thanks for positing this!  I missed this one for midlands in 91 but heard there was some good snowfall.   

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Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea

I'm never quite sure how Northamptonshire fairs in these easterly set ups to be honest.  Yes it is one of the more promisingly best scenarios for us as we can be exposed to showers coming off the north sea but it is never a clear cut route to snow.  I think I will have to wait and see what develops over the next week and hope we see something significant out of all of this, especially as it is such a rare occurrence and some are saying it could one of those once in a generation cold and snow event.  Lets hope everyone in the country sees some snow at least.

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Posted
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
  • Location: Hanley, Stoke-on-trent
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Wash streamer?

We were right at the end of a Wash streamer in 2010, but I have to say that's the only time I've ever known it. We usually pick up a few showers from s straight Easterly. The difference here, is the unprecedented depth of cold for the time of year. We're alresdy seeing convective cloud today, in a set-up where skies would have been clear a month ago.

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Posted
  • Location: KIdderminster
  • Location: KIdderminster
10 minutes ago, Barometer Cat said:

Cool, thanks for positing this!  I missed this one for midlands in 91 but heard there was some good snowfall.   

I came home for the weekend from London on the Friday. Couldn't get back to London until the following Thursday. Motorways shut etc etc. Had a walk out in the snow on the Saturday afternoon. The coldest I have ever been in my life. No water or electricity. This is going to be a classic spell of weather and something very rare. ENJOY !!

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Posted
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate, snow winter, sunny summers
  • Location: Wythall, Worcestershire, 150m asl

My hope is we get somewhere in the region of 5-10cms between Mon - Thurs, from snow showers, troughs etc, minimal melt due to v.low temps and dew points assisting the above.

Then at the end of the week we get the Iberian low drift up towards us, deep but not too deep so it stalls over the southern half of the U.K., dumping approx 1 foot of snow over the Midlands, in near blizzard conditions the likes of which haven’t been seen in years.

Front then moves away eastwards leaving us back in a gentle Easterly flow for a few days before Iberian low the sequel on Tues/We’d the following week, which brings a repeat performance.

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Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL

Hello Beastie....

 

Netweather GFS Image

Sunday into Monday.

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl

I think the midlands will do well...we are the first to be at a higher elevation away from the North Sea.

Even in the warmer easterly of Feb 2005, I can recall that we had widespread snow showers but it was hit and miss with settling. Next week, there should be no problem with settling due to the intense depth of cold. 

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