The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[Rich_T]

Got a few outdoor events planned coming up soon, first is the middle of next week, as an early spring walk (feel the warmth of the early spring sunshine?)

The main group of people organising them are convinced that the BBC weather app is correct (im not so convinced) when will the main weather warnings come out?

 

[WalsallWeather123]

3 minutes ago, Rich_T said:

Got a few outdoor events planned coming up soon, first is the middle of next week, as an early spring walk (feel the warmth of the early spring sunshine?)

The main group of people organising them are convinced that the BBC weather app is correct (im not so convinced) when will the main weather warnings come out?

 

Thursday-Friday I reckon. BBC like to be very cautious and only give a couple days notice

[BleakMidwinter]

2 minutes ago, Rich_T said:

Got a few outdoor events planned coming up soon, first is the middle of next week, as an early spring walk (feel the warmth of the early spring sunshine?)

The main group of people organising them are convinced that the BBC weather app is correct (im not so convinced) when will the main weather warnings come out?

 

The MetO have no capacity to issue warnings beyond 5 days inc the present day. 

I don't use apps so can't comment on the BBC weather app. I wouldn't recommend anyone depend on a single app, though, for anything important like organising outdoor events. 

There are PLENTY of headlines in the news about the more-than-five-days expected cold and possible snow, though. It isn't being furtively kept as a weather-geek secret or anything. But people don't pay any attention these days to forecasts or articles about weather. When we had over a foot of snow in three days in early December, it was forecast for days in advance. It started on the Friday and two days before that I mentioned to the old ladies in my Sewing Group that I hoped they'd got their shopping done and kitchens stocked up and they all looked blank. Not one of them knew there was any kind of weather forecast that might interfere with daily life. And that was with MetO warnings and everything. I'll be checking again tomorrow that they know it's about to get very very cold, and I bet they won't... currently forecasts for the following Wd's meeting are a maximum of -2...

[BleakMidwinter]

Re forecasts and reliability. 

It varies across the country - different forecasts use different software and models and those are more reliable or less reliable for certain weather events and types, which in turn are more or less likely in different parts of the country. 

When I lived in Edinburgh, which lies in a bowl surrounded by seawater or high ground on all but the east, I found the BBC were useless, the MetO not much better but XC was really reliable. Moving to Shropshire 3+ years ago on a high ridge with the Cheshire Gap to the NW and it seems that XC is really unreliable for this region, but the MetO are consistently the best. 
If you want to rely on forecasts to any extent, then I reckon you spend a year checking 2-3 or forecasts and keeping a note of which ones are useless or good, or inbetween. You need to work out which ones are good for your area's weather tendencies. 

I like to have some idea at a quick glance what the weather's likely to be because I'm mostly a housewife who walks everywhere. First thing in the morning I rarely have time to check charts and want to just glance and know whether I need a hat or sunscreen or woolly jumper or what, so I can walk a few miles to get the groceries without being soaked/ burnt/ frozen/ blown to Spitzbergen. 

[weirpig]

Starting to get a little interested now  for the weekend onwards.   The Depth of cold showing is quite something for this time of year.  Not sure i buy quite into all the apocalyptic scenarios that are spouted on the mad thread  however if the charts come to fruition  a very cold wintry period is setting up.  The strength of the wind and the unstable flow will bring showers way inland   much more so then if it came from the west with those pesky Welsh mountains .   Duration is still very much unknown    the most potent spell of weather in many years is upon us

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Starting to get a little interested now  for the weekend onwards.   The Depth of cold showing is quite something for this time of year.  Not sure i buy quite into all the apocalyptic scenarios that are spouted on the mad thread  however if the charts come to fruition  a very cold wintry period is setting up.  The strength of the wind and the unstable flow will bring showers way inland   much more so then if it came from the west with those pesky Welsh mountains .   Duration is still very much unknown    the most potent spell of weather in many years is upon us

Ay, GFS again showing Wash streamer for north of this region, like in Nov 2010, first few flurries Sunday night

Edited February 20, 2018 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Sparkiee storm]

WTF!!!!!! 

This is for Monday.

That's almost unheard of 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Sparkiee storm

[Ryan05]

Really hoping the East Midlands has its turn this time round, places like Nottingham really didn't do very well snow wise from the event back in December. Another case of so close but so far away for us, ended up with nothing more than a cm or so which was soon gone.

Hopefully this time cities like Nottingham will be right in the firing line for a North Sea Streamer, have done well from this set up in the past. So fingers crossed

 

[shaky]

Keep an eye around 96 to 120 hours on gfs 12z and see if it continues to delay the cold!!its nearly an outlier in the ensembles around 24 to the 25th in regards to the delay!!we dont want to see the cold delayed any longer as theres a higher chance of things going wrong!!been bitten far too many times before and it could all still go wrong ar a short time frame!!

Edited February 20, 2018 by shaky

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Keep an eye around 96 to 120 hours on gfs 12z and see if it continues to delay the cold!!its nearly an outlier in the ensembles around 24 to the 25th in regards to the delay!!we dont want to see the cold delayed any longer as theres a higher chance of things going wrong!!been bitten far too many times before and it could all still go wrong ar a short time frame!!

Yes Indeed.  However  if it does happen  it will strange for the showers to hit you before me.  shows how rare these easterlies are.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes Indeed.  However  if it does happen  it will strange for the showers to hit you before me.  shows how rare these easterlies are.

These are absolutely dream synoptics but i really am trying not to get excited till around thursday!!!!i strongly believe if this cold spell happens its gona be the most severe spell since 2009!!its gona be pure siberian air!!dangerous i tell ya!!!ive not seen 850 temps of -16 since 1991 so that tells you a lot!!

[shaky]

44 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes Indeed.  However  if it does happen  it will strange for the showers to hit you before me.  shows how rare these easterlies are.

Just taken a look at those ensembles and its even more of a mild outlier for norfolk around the 25th!!ideally we want the gfs to bring the cold air a bit quicker the next run!ukmo hopefully continues from its 00z run!!

[FENDER.]

Its a balmy 9c here in the West Midland today.  My other half Susie Bear, thinks is cold already.  Told her to get her thermal draws ready for next week.

[BleakMidwinter]

3 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

Its a balmy 9c here in the West Midland today.  My other half Susie Bear, thinks is cold already.  Told her to get her thermal draws ready for next week.

Yep, I'm spending today and tomorrow getting the freezer filled with soup and stew and pasta with sauces, all in meal-portions so we have a steady supply of homemade microwave ready-meals! 
Casting-on this afternoon for another pair of wool socks, too  And tomorrow I'm cutting out the pieces to sew a new, properly-long warm cosy dressing-gown

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

Yes Indeed.  However  if it does happen  it will strange for the showers to hit you before me.  shows how rare these easterlies are.

Ay, but great we have no bleedin' hills in the way! my location usually very well placed for Wash streamers, hope GFS precip charts right, could be at least 3 day streamer

[markw2680]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, but great we have no bleedin' hills in the way! my location usually very well placed for Wash streamers, hope GFS precip charts right, could be at least 3 day streamer

I like the sound of that. And how nice to not have hills blocking the path

[Rich_T]

BBc are still sticking to their guns - temperatures a few degrees above freezing and  cloudy, the app continues in the same vein - cooler but nothing drastic

[andy_leics22]

I know it's only one run but is it me or is the 12z GFS run today a downgrade on yesterdays? Please don't let this start downgrading now after all the hype 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, andy_leics22 said:

I know it's only one run but is it me or is the 12z GFS run today a downgrade on yesterdays? Please don't let this start downgrading now after all the hype 

downgrade yes, what I think will happen is, beast Sunday night, to Wednesday night, with snow chances of course, then turning less cold from the north on Thursday

[MattStoke]

There is no quick way back to anything remotely mild from this setup. Perfect setup for prolonged cold.

Edited February 20, 2018 by MattStoke

[RobR]

What are the chances of me missing any decent cold/snow next weekend? I'm hoping anything that does fall will stick around into Monday but is there evidence yet of any milder incursions through that weekend?

[BleakMidwinter]

25 minutes ago, RobR said:

What are the chances of me missing any decent cold/snow next weekend? I'm hoping anything that does fall will stick around into Monday but is there evidence yet of any milder incursions through that weekend?

Next weekend meaning 24-25th? That's before it starts... 

the following weekend, who knows. You might be buried under fifteen foot of the stuff or it may all be cold but dry... or raining!

[davehsug]

I've never been able to understand this keenness for North Easterlies. I've seen many flows switch from East to North East & the outcome is always the same. Raised dewpoints, thick cloud & very cold rain or sleet.

[RobR]

2 hours ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Next weekend meaning 24-25th? That's before it starts... 

the following weekend, who knows. You might be buried under fifteen foot of the stuff or it may all be cold but dry... or raining!

First weekend of March is when I'm away. Just be typical to miss some big snow events.

[WalsallWeather123]

On 19/02/2018 at 00:21, WalsallWeather123 said:

Cold temperatures around freezing are almost a certainty I would say for the Midlands. How prolonged will the cold spell be is a different question. All depends on the position of the heights. However I don't believe Central areas will be getting much snow. That will be limited to eastern areas

Think I might have to eat my own words. If models came off, countrywide snow lol. However as always caution is needed until closer to the time