The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[kmanmx]

Hey all

 

Been casually watching the weather models this week as I saw there were hints of snow possibilities, now with Sunday looking like a bit of an upgrade (but still a wet wash out by the end of the day more than likely, by the looks of it), but it will be nice to see some good snow falling during in the day while it lasts.

 

Here is hoping for me last minute upgrades tonight

 

 

 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

30 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

just to add, I'm quite happy to get it totally wrong and to be spouting total pigswill, as it will mean the midlands receive a lot more snow than forecast!

Come tomorrow then you'll be the most happiest man in the world

[A.J]

19 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

AJ......

Normally I agree totally with you, but in this instance for today the answer was and still is potentially a resounding no.

GFS 24 hrs and 36 hrs ago was showing just a bit of rain for this area, today, with the mild air sweeping through easily tomorrow, where there was no mention of more than 10 minutes sleet for here and a 2 - 4 hour event for NE England and Scotland.  All through this time the ARGPEGE was steadfast.

ARPEGE was showing a Midland wide sleet/snow event 3 days ago, for today and tomorrow. The other high res models followed on quite quickly, and it was not until last night (evening for METO) that they suggested we may have a rain/sleet event here today, and just possibly tomorrow..

Through out this morning I still believed the GFS would be correct, but It failed to pick up that the small low crossing the south today, which would hold back the warm air. This was picked upon  by the minor models.

GFS was just leaving  us in a col between yesterdays slider to the SWest and tomorrows major occlusion. 

Even now it seems to be only grudgingly accepting that the cold might still hang on  as was being shown by the other (more minor) models.

Now I am aware that it has not happened yet,  and only then will we see who is correct. But already in my mind GFS is losing 1-0 away from home at half time.

MIA

 Edit - AJ just seen your latest post above.

that's odd, GFS over the past 24/48 hours was modelling a rain/sleet.snow mix for the midlands to my eyes....pretty much bang on with what actually has happened, as was the NMM hi-res.....now, ppn charts are an inaccurate tool IMHO generally speaking, but did you view the GFS (and NMM if you have them) charts that are available on NW or from other sources?....the reason I ask is that some of the GFS ppn charts from other sites don't have a 'wintry mix' overlay, rather rain and snow hashing with no 'mix' overlay

Edited January 20, 2018 by ajpoolshark

[A.J]

12 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Come tomorrow then you'll be the most happiest man in the world

we'll see 

[Snowyowl9]

After yesterday`s mini dusting first thing which all gone by later.

Today has been very unexpected,early on didn`t look like much was going to happen,snizzle dusting we were on the snowline.

Then 3 to 4 inches of snow by dark.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Brilliant snowfall here earlier today, with huge fluffy snowflakes. It managed to settle as well which was a nice surprise. It's mostly all gone now, though it has left a dusting on the grass and a few other odd surfaces. Hope we get more tomorrow even if it does unfortunately look likely to eventually turn back to rain.

With the big snow event we had on 10th Dec 17 all these other more marginal events are making this Winter reasonably pleasurable to endure from a snow lovers perspective. Here's hoping February can top it all at some point which would make Winter 2017/18 go from quite ok, to absolutely fantastic .

Edited January 20, 2018 by Walsall Wood Snow

[markw2680]

Just got home to about an inch on the paths and grass etc although road was a slushy slippery mess. Hopefully more to come tomorrow before the rain sets in

[I remember Atlantic 252]

most in this region will get buried tomorrow, except Staffs and Shrops, FAX shows mild sector still to our SW at midday, front furtherst NE to give the dumping for especially the E Midlands

 

[Dancerwithwings]

11 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Just got home to about an inch on the paths and grass etc although road was a slushy slippery mess. Hopefully more to come tomorrow before the rain sets in

That slushy slippery mess will freeze this evening, I'm going for a good three hours of Snow tomorrow morning and then as 'Nick F' said earlier today .....rain come the afternoon.

12Z NMM'S

Edited January 20, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[kmanmx]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

most in this region will get buried tomorrow, except Staffs and Shrops, FAX shows mild sector still to our SW at midday, front furtherst NE to give the dumping for especially the E Midlands

 

Buried ?

As far as I was aware this was a 1 to 3cm kind of thing... ?

[MattStoke]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

most in this region will get buried tomorrow, except Staffs and Shrops, FAX shows mild sector still to our SW at midday, front furtherst NE to give the dumping for especially the E Midlands

 

Now that's just mean! 

[Dancerwithwings]

The Staffs and Shrops will be just fine  the 12z Nmm's clearly show that.......Unless or

 

Edit....At least one thing (we won't need Prozac).....We can all sit back and have a lovely Sunday morning 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[MKN]

14 minutes ago, kmanmx said:

Buried ?

As far as I was aware this was a 1 to 3cm kind of thing... ?

Its a 0-5cm job imo. Followed by a 5 or less back to zero quite quickly.

Further north and high ground may do well like buxton area. And of course scotland should see the whole band push through as snow. 

Edited January 20, 2018 by MKN

[Midlands Ice Age]

59 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The Staffs and Shrops will be just fine  the 12z Nmm's clearly show that.......Unless or

 

Edit....At least one thing (we won't need Prozac).....We can all sit back and have a lovely Sunday morning 

DWW...

Looks like there is some really heavy stuff coming out of Wales.

Could it be where the T junction is on the frontal system?.

If it is it COULD move south east again....

Then what -

 

My garden about 6 hrs in to my 24 hr snowfall on Dec 10th.

 

MIA

Edited January 20, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

West mids is surely 2nd in the snow league this winter , with only Scotland above us .. 

maybe next year we will lift the title ????

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, nobble said:

West mids is surely 2nd in the snow league this winter , with only Scotland above us .. 

maybe next year we will lift the title ????

What about East Midlands? they'll definitely be 2nd after tomorrow

[kmanmx]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

What about East Midlands? they'll definitely be 2nd after tomorrow

East mids have certainly done way better than usual, but considering pretty much all snow events this year so far have come from westerly directions, west mids have got the deeper snow depths thus far overall. Precip tends to weaken as it gets into the east mids especially with the weaker systems though.

I'm not complaining though, still the best year I can remember in recent memory.

Edited January 20, 2018 by kmanmx

[nobble]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

What about East Midlands? they'll definitely be 2nd after tomorrow

Might have a better day than us tomorow but since end of November we still have clear lead

[MattStoke]

Well, Met Office warnings and BBC forecasts have both upgraded tomorrow's snow somewhat. As has the GFS model. Could be fun for a few hours before it becomes a slush fest. 

[nobble]

Fog is a great precursor to snow ??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, nobble said:

Fog is a great precursor to snow ??

certainly was on 9th Feb '07

[BlueHedgehog074]

My guess for Solihull and Birmingham tomorrow:

8am to 10am: The first few bits of sleet and snow starts to fall, which becomes a bit heavier and organised

11am: Snow gets heavier

12pm: And heavier

1pm: Sleet

2pm: the sick bucket! ?

[MattStoke]

I reckon a snow risk here from around 8/9am to 12/1pm. Then the rain and horrid mild dross starts to take over.

[MattStoke]

Latest ICON update -  

[BlueHedgehog074]

9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I reckon a snow risk here from around 8/9am to 12/1pm. Then the rain and horrid mild dross starts to take over.

You’ll probably have a slightly better chance of it lasting as snow longer where you are.