The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[snowstorm27x]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Sky is clearing. Should all the temperature to fall away tonight ahead of tomorrow’s front.

Think you are in for a good few centimetres tomoz.

[nobble]

Snow had petered out here just the odd flake the last hour , 

now staring up again light at mo but gone dark !!

[BleakMidwinter]

Eased off over the last half-hour to a fine mist of very wet cold stuff. 

It's been the ideal thing to watch on a lazy day in, though! Marvellous!

[fizz511]

13 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Oh what a bore for you!

You wouldn't send it down to Evesham would you?

Meany!

MIA

Edit First few flakes now starting here again. I think you must have mis-fired!

What are you doing in Evesham?! Did you get a docket....? Get back here this minute ?

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

6 minutes ago, fizz511 said:

What are you doing in Evesham?! Did you get a docket....? Get back here this minute ?

Is it safe to use the M42? Me Lord!

I had heard that it was blocked with floating pillow cases and an odd duvet thrown in?

MIA

Edited January 20, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[MattStoke]

12 minutes ago, snowstorm27x said:

Think you are in for a good few centimetres tomoz.

Missed most of the action this week. So fingers crossed.

[Sleet30031972]

Just cold rain again in Derby today. As a newcomer to the area, I'm finding it increasingly perplexing how, all this winter, points west, and south of me are having snow and Derby isn't? (I get why points north and peak district do). Today for example, Stoke, Telford, Birmingham, Warwickshire and Leicester have snow. Derby - zilch. How so? Odd. 

[dudleyweather1]

2 minutes ago, Sleet30031972 said:

Just cold rain again in Derby today. As a newcomer to the area, I'm finding it increasingly perplexing how, all this winter, points west, and south of me are having snow and Derby isn't? (I get why points north and peak district do). Today for example, Stoke, Telford, Birmingham, Warwickshire and Leicester have snow. Derby - zilch. How so? Odd. 

Perhaps in the rain shadow of the Peak District?

[Sleet30031972]

Another massive upgrade for tomorrow. This time by the metoffice. Sleet largely disappeared. Looks a mostly heavy snow event now! We'll see.

[Sleet30031972]

1 minute ago, dudleyweather1 said:

Perhaps in the rain shadow of the Peak District?

The rain bit doesn't seem to be too much of a problem :-). Heavy rain today. I don't have elevation here but neither do some of the other posters. And being further west and south of me sometimes I would have thought Derby would be more likely to be in the colder air. Doesn't seem to have been like that this winter anyway?

[Midlands Ice Age]

19 minutes ago, Sleet30031972 said:

Just cold rain again in Derby today. As a newcomer to the area, I'm finding it increasingly perplexing how, all this winter, points west, and south of me are having snow and Derby isn't? (I get why points north and peak district do). Today for example, Stoke, Telford, Birmingham, Warwickshire and Leicester have snow. Derby - zilch. How so? Odd. 

Sleet...

we have been very lucky this year in the West Mids.

The fronts from the West have just aligned correctly for us to get the sliders from the North West as they travel south eastwards.

In addition we are also more prone to the Chehire gap streamer for something different. 

We also tend to find that the cold air over Wales can be the deciding factor in turning dodgy situations.

Today seems to have been a cobination of all 3 of the above.

You could equally well strike it lucky tomorrow as you should stay in the colder air for longer.

Also Bham is between 300 and 1000 feet asl  (100 - 300 meters).

MIA

 

Edited January 20, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, Essan said:

Mild* and damp in Evesham with not a snowflake to be seen ......  we had our once-every-5-years snow last month  

* well, feels mild - certainly not cold enough for snow!

Feels Mild Its bloody freezing out there, and I live barely a mile away from you! ,would be snow if the precip was heavier!

[MattStoke]

GFS 12z for tomorrow.

[shaky]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

GFS 12z for tomorrow.

That looks delicious for the central/eat midlands!!i cant believe how much the gfs has backtracked over the last 24 hours!!gota give arpege and icon credit here!!

[Dancerwithwings]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

That looks delicious for the central/eat midlands!!i cant believe how much the gfs has backtracked over the last 24 hours!!gota give arpege and icon credit here!!

Yes for the Arpege and Icon......but caution!!! it hasn't happened yet 

[Sleet30031972]

59 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Sleet...

we have been very lucky this year in the West Mids.

The fronts from the West have just aligned correctly for us to get the sliders from the North West as they travel south eastwards.

In addition we are also more prone to the Chehire gap streamer for something different. 

We also tend to find that the cold air over Wales can be the deciding factor in turning dodgy situations.

Today seems to have been a cobination of all 3 of the above.

You could equally well strike it lucky tomorrow as you should stay in the colder air for longer.

Also Bham is between 300 and 1000 feet asl  (100 - 300 meters).

MIA

 

Good answer. Thanks. 

[Supacell]

No snow in Belper today, just a bit of cold drizzle. I think the lack of intensity put pay to it falling as snow, whereas the more intense precipitation further south and west did produce snow for some. It is looking good for tomorrow morning around here but I am going to a party tonight and so doubtful I will be up and about to see it. 

[Gord]

Had a good covering of snow here in Upper Gornal. Just had to run an errand to Wolverhampton. Obviously there's quite a bit of snow on the ground as I drove through Sedgely then as I came down the other side into Wolverhampton...nothing, just wet on the ground. There's an obvious point on the way where the lying snow simply stops, like someone has drawn a line. Mist and fog developing in Sedgley as I drove back, looks very wintry.

The variation around here with the elevation always fascinates me. Sometimes I don't have to go far from home before the snow runs out.

[Kieran]

Haven’t posted on Netweather for quite a while but I think our region has been really lucky this winter for snow.

In Birmingham we’ve had plenty of occasions of falling snow, the heaviest snow event (Sunday 10th December) for atleast 4 Years, a Boxing Day snow event and the whole of February to go.... Easily the best winter since 2012/2013.

On the talk of tomorrows snow to rain event, the BBC have upgraded the wintry potential for our region and are now showing snow (rather than sleet) starting off which then may turn into a slushy mix in the early afternoon. Looking good for a few CM’s IMO....

 <———  Here’s what the BBC are showing for tomorrow morning

[dudleyweather1]

Interesting to see the snow line from the back garden towards the hills...

[A.J]

56 minutes ago, shaky said:

That looks delicious for the central/eat midlands!!i cant believe how much the gfs has backtracked over the last 24 hours!!gota give arpege and icon credit here!!

not really Shaky, to be fair, it's been modelled quite accurately by the GFS, and without putting a dampner on things, there are 2 things to consider....1) snowfall will be temporary and will quickly turn to rain except for the far north of England and parts of Scotland.....and 2) that GFS charts posted show only now rain/sleet/snow mix shading, whereas the GFS charts on NW clearly do......worth noting that by 3pm tomorrow, the 0C isotherm has already risen to 5000ft, so any snow would have rapidly turned to rain and melted any snow that may have accumulated.....genuinely not trying to put a dampner on proceedings, just perhaps a more realistic viewpoint

Hirlam hi-res model show snowfall concentrated further north and generally more patchy, and ICON (which has a lower resolution) shows ppn changing rapidly from snow to rain...ARPEGE shows more snowfall potential but overeggs things IMHO, it even has my location down for 3 hours snowfall tomorrow morning (that aint gonna happen...lol)

[markw2680]

3 minutes ago, dudleyweather1 said:

Interesting to see the snow line from the back garden towards the hills...

Lol is that over towards the wasely hills by any chance? That’s where I live if it is. Going home shortly after been out all day so don’t no what’s it’s like at home yet

[A.J]

9 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

not really Shaky, to be fair, it's been modelled quite accurately by the GFS, and without putting a dampner on things, there are 2 things to consider....1) snowfall will be temporary and will quickly turn to rain except for the far north of England and parts of Scotland.....and 2) that GFS charts posted show only now rain/sleet/snow mix shading, whereas the GFS charts on NW clearly do.....

just to add, I'm quite happy to get it totally wrong and to be spouting total pigswill, as it will mean the midlands receive a lot more snow than forecast!

Edited January 20, 2018 by ajpoolshark

[dudleyweather1]

8 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Lol is that over towards the wasely hills by any chance? That’s where I live if it is. Going home shortly after been out all day so don’t no what’s it’s like at home yet

Close, the view is more towards Clent/Hagley.  Wasely Hills are slightly further round to the left on that picture.

[Midlands Ice Age]

35 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

not really Shaky, to be fair, it's been modelled quite accurately by the GFS, and without putting a dampner on things, there are 2 things to consider....1) snowfall will be temporary and will quickly turn to rain except for the far north of England and parts of Scotland.....and 2) that GFS charts posted show only now rain/sleet/snow mix shading, whereas the GFS charts on NW clearly do......worth noting that by 3pm tomorrow, the 0C isotherm has already risen to 5000ft, so any snow would have rapidly turned to rain and melted any snow that may have accumulated.....genuinely not trying to put a dampner on proceedings, just perhaps a more realistic viewpoint

Hirlam hi-res model show snowfall concentrated further north and generally more patchy, and ICON (which has a lower resolution) shows ppn changing rapidly from snow to rain...ARPEGE shows more snowfall potential but overeggs things IMHO, it even has my location down for 3 hours snowfall tomorrow morning (that aint gonna happen...lol)

AJ......

Normally I agree totally with you, but in this instance for today the answer was and still is potentially a resounding no.

GFS 24 hrs and 36 hrs ago was showing just a bit of rain for this area, today, with the mild air sweeping through easily tomorrow, where there was no mention of more than 10 minutes sleet for here and a 2 - 4 hour event for NE England and Scotland.  All through this time the ARGPEGE was steadfast.

ARPEGE was showing a Midland wide sleet/snow event 3 days ago, for today and tomorrow. The other high res models followed on quite quickly, and it was not until last night (evening for METO) that they suggested we may have a rain/sleet event here today, and just possibly tomorrow..

Through out this morning I still believed the GFS would be correct, but It failed to pick up that the small low crossing the south today, which would hold back the warm air. This was picked upon  by the minor models.

GFS was just leaving  us in a col between yesterdays slider to the SWest and tomorrows major occlusion. 

Even now it seems to be only grudgingly accepting that the cold might still hang on  as was being shown by the other (more minor) models.

Now I am aware that it has not happened yet,  and only then will we see who is correct. But already in my mind GFS is losing 1-0 away from home at half time.

MIA

 Edit - AJ just seen your latest post above.

Edited January 20, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age