Model output discussion - mid January

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended sees the high sinking a bit further south allowing a low to cross north of Scotland

Trough disruption!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended sees the high sinking a bit further south allowing a low to cross north of Scotland

Got to say that looks more droppy than crossy SS

[That ECM]

16 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

Thankyou - for those of us still trying to learn the basics, it actually really helps having some guidance as to what to look at in the charts. So often I scroll through dozens of posts showing these charts because I'm jsut not good enough to read them properly and don't know what to look at! 

I was there about 12 years ago, not that I would class myself as knowledgeable but when you can see why charts are"good/bad" it makes it more enjoyable and come to your own conclusions instead of hanging on every comment. Us coldies get a bit excited at times so always use the met as sense check. Its looking good for cold starting soon and lasting More than a day or so. Snow? It will be picked up in the t24/48 range at the most. Exciting times unless your not a coldie, then we'll never speak to you again

 

 

Edited January 31, 2018 by That ECM

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended sees the high sinking a bit further south allowing a low to cross north of Scotland

Oh no !you know what's going to happen next lets talk about the breakdown before it even starts

[Devonshire]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Cant believe no one has mentioned 1947

Is that when the ensembles are out? Still a little under 10 mins to wait ...

[Singularity]

1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

I see you have a Masters in Meteorology. Not going to lie I'm rather more uneducated than you (HND Environmental Science's!)

What's your take on the current prognosis? And is it notable or normal winter weather that should be expected at this time of the year?

A bit of an easterly would be fairly typical. If uppers fall below -10*C, well that's typically seen once every 3-4 winters I reckon.

If we then see air from the west with uppers below -8*C moving into stagnant continental air, well that would be pretty unusual in my book. Opinions will of course differ depending on where one resides in the UK.

 

@Jemma Croton thanks, it's nice to know that my posts are being put to good use 

[Snowjokes92]

The ECM 12Z is just one of them runs where you can see it toying with scenarios which are boarderline perfect to get the real cold from the east, moving westwards. Really is one of them runs that screams a lot of potential. Fingers crossed

[karlos1983]

Nice +120 850’s mean 

Edited January 31, 2018 by karlos1983

[Optimus Prime]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

-10 from the east and north west at the same time is srandard stuff?

 

Errrm yeah, I suppose? East is normally cold at this time of the year and a NW straight from Greenland won't be warm. 

Am I missing something? I'll be honest though, I tend to not just look at 850hPa temperatures...

 

[Froze were the Days]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended sees the high sinking a bit further south allowing a low to cross north of Scotland

Christ!...that UKMO extended is a complete nightmare, Is it stuck? Azores high pressure staring us in the face every time...

[chris55]

18 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Cant believe no one has mentioned 1947!

Can't believe the mods haven't deleted all the * I have just had to scroll through!! 

Sifting through rubbish, EC really gaining momentum on a much colder outlook, with a cold continental feed seeing a cold PM Atlantic bumping up against - with the mild sectors squeezed to little more than whiff over Ireland.

The Atlantic has thrown more cold systems from the northwest this winter (with the two midlands snow events in December) than I can remember in recent years, and this time they are hitting a cold block to the east, could well be some notable snowfalls if it verifies.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Paul

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Errrm yeah, I suppose? East is normally cold at this time of the year and a NW straight from Greenland won't be warm. 

Am I missing something? I'll be honest though, I tend to not just look at 850hPa temperatures...

 

I think you might be to be honest. 850’s of -10c on south coast is not standard winter, you can dress it up how you like, easterly winds aren’t standard in a UK winter. Standard winter for the UK is PM air occasionally AM air, but generally a mobile west to east pattern is typical for winter in the UK.

now, -10 uppers from an easterly, yes that’s what one would expect from an easterly. 

I think if we can get past this little issue you’ll enjoy this upcoming pattern change a lot more. 

If we saw -10 uppers on a regular basis we probably wouldn’t be as completely crazy as we are now! It’s rare!

Edited January 31, 2018 by karlos1983

[stewfox]

55 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Kinda struggle to understand what you are saying. 

So from what I do understand, no, I'm not on a wind up. This is supposedly a science thread, is it not? Seems to be run by the usual Hollywood blockbuster wannabe actors that look for popularity to inflate their ego. There's nothing sensible being posted.

I've seen people here talk down about the weatheroutlook forum. Whilst I agree it's not for everyone, they tend to be a lot more level headed and sensible than in here.

Post some rationale to support your comments ? GFS looks good to me way out into la la land. No its not 1947 or 1963 

and on my birthday

[Allseasons-Si]

For london

[Neilsouth]

6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Christ!...that UKMO extended is a complete nightmare, Is it stuck? Azores high pressure staring us in the face every time...

Pretty much what the latest Weather Ahead said on the BBC, Didn't think the Russian high was going to win out and it's back to the NW air stream

Haven't seen any snow on the ground since 2010!

[Snowjokes92]

Can someone help me here please? With -12 uppers showing on ecm what sort of day time maxes will that be equivalent to? Also noticed a lot of slack pressure from 144 hours, but mention of snow? Would that mean we would get precipitation due to a slack area of cold pressure?

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Can't believe the mods haven't deleted all the * I have just had to scroll through!! 

Sifting through rubbish, EC really gaining momentum on a much colder outlook, with a cold continental feed seeing a cold PM Atlantic bumping up against - with the mild sectors squeezed to little more than whiff over Ireland.

The Atlantic has thrown more cold systems from the northwest this winter (with the two midlands snow events in December) than I can remember in recent years, and this time they are hitting a cold block to the east, could well be some notable snowfalls if it verifies.

Yeah, terrible mods, wanting to spend some time with the family etc etc, rather than tidying up mountains of posts  

That said, some people in here are just taking the mick - they know what this thread is for (eg model discussion), and just don't care that they're filling it with off topic, and in some cases, antagonistic stuff.

Some need to learn, very quickly that the team aren't here to be their personal post butlers and start taking responsibility. If not, the time for moving/deleting posts will be over for those who keep doing it, and we'll be moving straight on to posting restrictions. 

[nick sussex]

A pretty good ECM ensemble mean even at T240 hrs, displaced Azores high and low heights over Southern Europe.

Factor in the MJO and we could see further westwards corrections.

[Scandinavian High.]

4 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Pretty much what the latest Weather Ahead said on the BBC, Didn't think the Russian high was going to win out and it's back to the NW air stream

Haven't seen any snow on the ground since 2010!

BBC long range has not been updated yet ...

Edited January 31, 2018 by abbie123

[Optimus Prime]

3 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Post some rationale to support your comments ? GFS looks good to me way out into la la land. No its not 1947 or 1963 

and on my birthday

 

You see though, that's the problem. Posting charts that are 7 & 10 days out is not rationale. And then go on and post a precip chart 10 days out!

Again they are just 850 hPa. -10 850 hPa from the NW will inheritably be different to one from the east. The surface cold from an easterly would not be there in a NW'ly. 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

For london

Ecm op a marked cold outlier for London. We may need to temper expectations with regards to what exactly comes our way from the east early next week. 

[Richard Fisher]

23 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Cant believe no one has mentioned 1947!

It will be for the West lots of snow but not for the SE though mild easterly for them from current charts 

[Frosty.]

Really exciting model output today (for coldies) regarding next week...and beyond if the Gfs 12z is anywhere close! it would be the most wintry spell of the season so far nationwide if it happens..fingers crossed

Edited January 31, 2018 by Frosty.

[CK1981]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think you might be to be honest. 850’s of -10c on south coast is not standard winter, you can dress it up how you like, easterly winds aren’t standard in a UK winter. Standard winter for the UK is PM air occasionally AM air, but generally a mobile west to east pattern is typical for winter in the UK.

now, -10 uppers from an easterly, yes that’s what one would expect from an easterly. 

I think if we can get past this little issue you’ll enjoy this upcoming pattern change a lot more. 

If we saw -10 uppers on a regular basis we probably wouldn’t be as completely crazy as we are now! It’s rare!

Not to mention the -12 uppers the ECM brings in. Now that is quite something, especially compared with recent winters!

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh the irony!

On the ECM, the T144 period has a front that reaches the centre of the UK and then fizzles out!! Snow to the west, nothing to the east (esp. SE)

Reminds me of some of the snow events from the early 90's, on one occasion I remember well it snowed as far east as Heathrow, parts of the west were snowed in.