Model output discussion - mid January

[Singularity]

 

Hmm there's that powerful Siberian High and the Atlantic pattern realigning itself such that a vacation to Greenland is not out of the question.

A reasonable way to round-off a decent run overall for the freeze-starved southerners (not had an ice day or negative double digit minimum here for many years now).

[weirpig]

I'm at a loss what some people are looking at  if it veryfies the ecm has uppers across the country that havint been seen prob since 2012. A few snow events showing for quite a area of the country  and the block to the east that run by run seems to be gaining strength and is becoming harder to displace. On a separate note a recent BBC article has stated that the consumption of crystal meth as quadrupled in  six months   Something to bear in mind 

[sausage]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Try explaining that to OP..

or whatever her name is ???

yes i agree totally. just trying to wind up n troll. not listening or trying to understand anyones post. or shall i say respect them. just pass onto next response

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM is awesome start to finish- 

all snow events from T96 for the UK

best since 2010

( If it lands ) with at least 3 /4 reloads-

Looks great, Steve.

Nobody tell their families though, because we all know what happens then ?

[Optimus Prime]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

I kind of dont understand your points-and attitude full stop.

Pop over to-twoweather then chap/lasss/whatever..

If this place does'nt suite...

Where are your real analysis-ie charts/ ens /quotes..

You are clearly trolling!!!

Make some reasonable quotes..with backing and some may not laughat your bad manors!!!

So going by your mentality, if you don't understand someone's point of you, you compare them to your wife and accuse them off winding other people up? What's fundamentally wrong with someone injecting realism/different perspectives into the discussion? 

The people at The Daily Star would think Christmas has come early if half the people on here offered to write the weather section for them

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Maybe from your Irish perspective it doesn’t look so good but compared for us more south and east best of the winter really. Not a classic easterly for you interest will come from Atlantic protruding we may experience usual event of having cold to the left of us and cold to the right of us - win, win.  

And that's the nail on the head . We have the best winter weather starting at just T72 and you get people on here it's nothing it's this it's that it's not gonna happen . The models are showing the best wintry weather in years . Why do people come on here to wind up the cold crew ?. Look at this from the Ecm from day 3 to day 10 = very cold and possible SNOW !!!!

[TEITS]

A fair balanced point of view of next week is this.

For starters NO this will not be a classic convective snowy E,ly and nobody has suggested this. What we have from this weekend into next week is temps likely to be below average or even well below. Chance of snowfall via showers on Mon in E areas. Chance of more organised snowfall from midweek onwards arriving from the NW.

Possibly turning less cold at the end of next week but in my opinion this could be a brief milder blip before cold returns.

 

 

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And that's the nail on the head . We have the best winter weather starting at just T72 and you get people on here it's nothing it's this it's that it's not gonna happen . The models are showing the best wintry weather in years . Why do people come on here to wind up the cold crew ?. Look at this from the Ecm from day 3 to day 10 = very cold and possible SNOW !!!!

Agreed it’s good proper cold spell, those that are playing it down I’m struggling here. it’s not out this world but for UK standards it’s bloody good stuff! + especially for SE England.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Daniel*

[snowray]

30 minutes ago, shaky said:

90 percent??more like a thousand percent lol

South West and coastal areas might be more sleety on that chart, I would love a 100% snow event though.

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

So going by your mentality, if you don't understand someone's point of you, you compare them to your wife and accuse them off winding other people up? What's fundamentally wrong with someone injecting realism/different perspectives into the discussion? 

The people at The Daily Star would think Christmas has come early if half the people on here offered to write the weather section for them

I've read all your post and you need to explian to people what you find exceptional or intresting or standard February weather.... because without that no one knows what we shpuld ve co.paring the current charts too.

[supernova]

33 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Right, moan about this one a chart for all!! 

Other than it's 144 on That ECM, you mean...  

Let's blummin' hope this time ECM redeems itself...seen more than enough ghost Easterlies this year, never mind past years.

Dare I say it, this set up is waaaaay more interesting than we've seen for a while and somehow the evolution feels more plausible than previous eye candy. Here's hoping.

NOBODY. TELL. ANYBODY. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Interesting FAX? front seems out west, so means mild sector to our west? maybe 4 Feb '12 setup? assume not as not much mention of Saturday?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Were these runs crucial?

 

BFTP

[nick sussex]

A very enjoyable ECM run and thankfully we're not looking deep into FI for interest.

The models agree on the overall pattern but with some differences as to where the high ends up and exactly how deep any cold might be.

Its difficult to put detail on any snow this far out but it certainly looks like there will be some especially if we get some shortwaves heading se.

I wouldn't look too far past T168hrs because we might see more corrections in terms of a sharpening up of the trough and a bit more amplitude upstream.

 

[snowice]

Will be interesting to see the fax charts in the coming days.It could snow anywhere!

[Optimus Prime]

4 minutes ago, TEITS said:

A fair balanced point of view of next week is this.

For starters NO this will not be a classic convective snowy E,ly and nobody has suggested this. What we have from this weekend into next week is temps likely to be below average or even well below. Chance of snowfall via showers on Mon in E areas. Chance of more organised snowfall from midweek onwards arriving from the NW.

Possibly turning less cold at the end of next week but in my opinion this could be a brief milder blip before cold returns.

 

 

I'd struggle to disagree with that reflection. Definitely interesting winter weather, that's for sure. 

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

I've read all your post and you need to explian to people what you find exceptional or intresting or standard February weather.... because without that no one knows what we shpuld ve co.paring the current charts too.

What I see from the charts is cold weather, possibly very cold for a time next week. A possible slight continental flow early on and then some cold weather from the north west further down the line which will, in MY opinion, be replaced by an alternating cold and milder weather pattern as we cycle between high pressure to the south trying to ridge in and low pressure systems moving over the top from the Atlantic. 

Therefore snow is likely to fall in many places.

It may well be a colder than average first half to February.

It's not exceptional nor is it unusual. It will be off note because since 2013 there hasn't been any noteworthy and lengthy cold weather spells.

[Singularity]

 
 


It's all connected; see how the major surge of relatively warm air over to Siberia becomes the origin point of the strong height rises there.

What this does mean, though, is that any interruptions to that warm surge could severely weaken or even negate the subsequent Siberian block adventures.

[BleakMidwinter]

31 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Pincered and for our science friends between 2 big blobs one at 7 on clock, the orange one and the other at 1 on the clock , the yellow one

Thankyou - for those of us still trying to learn the basics, it actually really helps having some guidance as to what to look at in the charts. So often I scroll through dozens of posts showing these charts because I'm jsut not good enough to read them properly and don't know what to look at! 

[karlos1983]

55 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Right, moan about this one a chart for all!! 

Damn that warm sector 

[supernova]

A mean of -5 uppers or better from the start of GFS to the end for Eastern areas. Bank.

[Daniel*]

T240 some very cold air still to the near continent it has sort of just settled home there, if we pick up another easterly towards mid month we truly could manage a beast coming to our shores. 

[Jemma Croton]

14 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 
 


It's all connected; see how the major surge of relatively warm air over to Siberia becomes the origin point of the strong height rises there.

What this does mean, though, is that any interruptions to that warm surge could severely weaken or even negate the subsequent Siberian block adventures.

Singularity, I’ve silently followed this forum and these model posts for 3+ years before deciding to actually join the conversations and just wanted to say that your posts have consistently (not a word you can throw lightly in these parts ?) been incredibly relevant and informative and I have personally learned a lot from you. Thank you for that. 

Yes, that could have been said privately I guess but everyone loves a bit of public appreciation. Nick Sussex is a name that always stuck in mind as one to learn from.

I have autism and my mind is always running on overdrive. Having this place to learn from and follow really has helped me direct a lot of that energy during winter which is a great thing. A proper heartfelt thank you.

To keep this on topic I will just echo what everyone has said. Some absolutely amazing charts still coming up. I’m starting to get rather excited for next Tuesday/Wednesday and the progression thereafter.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2018 by Jemma Croton

[Bristawl Si]

Cant believe no one has mentioned 1947!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended sees the high sinking a bit further south allowing a low to cross north of Scotland

[Optimus Prime]

15 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

It's all connected; see how the major surge of relatively warm air over to Siberia becomes the origin point of the strong height rises there.

What this does mean, though, is that any interruptions to that warm surge could severely weaken or even negate the subsequent Siberian block adventures.

I see you have a Masters in Meteorology. Not going to lie I'm rather more uneducated than you (HND Environmental Science's!)

What's your take on the current situation/prognosis? And is it notable or normal winter weather that should be expected at this time of the year?

Edited January 31, 2018 by Optimus Prime