Model output discussion - mid January

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

T144. Snow moving in from the west, this will be 90% snowfall, very cold with -8/-10 hpa air.

Seriously though I think we are heading/on cusp of a WTF moment  here.I don't see spoiler situations from any of the big three......Super model watching

[SMU]

Can i have a reload please!

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

It's on a knifes edge really whether any of that cold gets advected in the direction of west proper. I fully suspect the near continent is in for some decent winter weather. It may get cold here but I suspect we will miss out this time. 

Ignore.....blast it I pressed the wrong button

[Stuie]

Don`t want to put a downer on this but doesn`t precipitation come from LP systems? I`m struggling here to see anything from any direction.

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

It's on a knifes edge really whether any of that cold gets advected in the direction of west proper. I fully suspect the near continent is in for some decent winter weather. It may get cold here but I suspect we will miss out this time. 

Ahh c, mon..which cross suites and support are you viewing???

Or are you ona wind up??

Theres is mighty agree on notable cold to us via both-raw- and decipher format..

I'll divulge with you on this a little later after the 18z 'suite' has gained and caught up...

And there is also via evolutions on offer, -gain- of further upgrades..would you beleive!!??

Edited January 31, 2018 by tight isobar

[snowice]

168 on ECM can it keep the the milder air out mid Atlantic at bay?

[bobbydog]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

Yes I did thank you. I can no longer edit my post.

However point till stands - nothing particularly noteworthy <240. 

Would be delighted to be proven wrong. 

that makes more sense lol! still, there is some interest in high res, with room for improvement

[snowice]

Ecm 192 cold attack from the west

[winterof79]

Once we are entrenched in cold the Atlantic is in serious trouble if it thinks about gate crashing our party.

It's struggled so far with minimal cold to our east

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wanna see it end up something like this, exactly 6 years ago, very snowy day here

 

[January Snowstorm]

For me I don't see anything great from a synoptic pov 

Of course uppers are very cold from both the West and East so snow is quite likely Tues/Wed.

Where is this Easterly everyone talks about?

[Seasonality]

9 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Oh a childish dig at me. Well if you can read, my post says snow doesn’t stick around on the ground for long at the end of February. I said nothing about it falling from the sky and these charts are for early February. You always get one wannabe comedian though...

No. Not you. Many others say such things. I can't recall reading any of your posts sorry old chap. Meanwhile. Still very cold in the South East at 192.

[Optimus Prime]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ahh c, mon..which cross suites and support are you viewing???

Or are you ona wind up??

Theres is mighty agree on notable cold to us via both-raw- and decipher format..

I'll divulge with you on this a little later after the 18z 'suite' has gained and caught up...

And there is also via evolutions on offer, -gain- of further upgrades..if you beleive!!??

Kinda struggle to understand what you are saying. 

So from what I do understand, no, I'm not on a wind up. This is supposedly a science thread, is it not? Seems to be run by the usual Hollywood blockbuster wannabe actors that look for popularity to inflate their ego. There's nothing sensible being posted.

I've seen people here talk down about the weatheroutlook forum. Whilst I agree it's not for everyone, they tend to be a lot more level headed and sensible than in here.

[winterof79]

Deleted duplicate

Edited January 31, 2018 by winterof79

[Jemma Croton]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

eh paul?

you can't see anything noteworthy in low res??

whats this? -

its not candy floss!...

For once I might be lucky to live in the SW ??

[ICE COLD]

Still nice and cold at t216 ?

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

No. Not you. Many others say such things. I can't recall reading any of your posts sorry old chap. Meanwhile. Still very cold in the South East at 192.

Oh ok, apologies, only you quoted me earlier when I referred to sun strength at the end of February and snow melt.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

For me I don't see anything great from a synoptic pov 

Of course uppers are very cold from both the West and East so snow is quite likely Tues/Wed.

Where is this Easterly everyone talks about?

Maybe from your Irish perspective it doesn’t look so good but compared for us more south and east best of the winter really. Not a classic easterly for you interest will come from Atlantic protruding we may experience usual event of having cold to the left of us and cold to the right of us - win, win.  

[WalsallWeather123]

Slight differences in GFS vs ECM. ECM more prolonged cold whereas GFS has intermittent cold spells. Which one will win out?

[That ECM]

Pincered and for our science friends between 2 big blobs one at 7 on clock, the orange one and the other at 1 on the clock , the yellow one

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Kinda struggle to understand what you are saying. 

So from what I do understand, no, I'm not on a wind up. This is supposedly a science thread, is it not? Seems to be run by the usual Hollywood blockbuster wannabe actors that look for popularity to inflate their ego. There's nothing sensible being posted.

I've seen people here talk down about the weatheroutlook forum. Whilst I agree it's not for everyone, they tend to be a lot more level headed and sensible than in here.

I kind of dont understand your points-and attitude full stop.

Pop over to-twoweather then chap/lasss/whatever..

If this place does'nt suite...

Where are your real analysis-ie charts/ ens /quotes..

You are clearly trolling!!!

Make some reasonable quotes..with backing and some may not laugh at your bad manors!!! And bad model reading

Edited January 31, 2018 by tight isobar

[Captain Shortwave]

In terms of this winter, this is probably the best chart we have got.

   

The cold air is advected westwards much better than the rest with those lowering heights and 850s allow showers to become incresingly widespread from the Humber south with the possibility of something more organised possible off the continent. Add to that we then see an occluded front move eastwards into some very cold air which then becomes slow moving allowing some very cold air to mix into the front from the north west as well.

A lot of uncertainty on how this high develops and whether we can cleanly advect that cold air eastwards intiially but this is pretty good and results in several days of cold or very temperatures with the risk of snow. Whilst the ECM is excellent, we still have operational and ensemble output which results in a bust from the east though the deep trough which moves east towards the UK has a lot of cold air mixed in so the chances of snow in the next week look possible regardless.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Captain Shortwave

[SMU]

ECM is awesome start to finish- 

all snow events from T96 for the UK

best since 2010

( If it lands ) with at least 3 /4 reloads-

[Man With Beard]

Oh the irony!

On the ECM, the T144 period has a front that reaches the centre of the UK and then fizzles out!! Snow to the west, nothing to the east (esp. SE)

[tight isobar]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

ECM is awesome start to finish- 

all snow events from T96 for the UK

best since 2010

( If it lands ) with at least 3 /4 reloads-

Try explaining that to OP..

or whatever her name is ???