Model output discussion - mid January

[Lampostwatcher]

ecm  has -10 uppers into the east this Sunday ?

[Singularity]

Very clean slide of the LP on this run, hence the better easterly import than GFS for Sunday. Similar to UKMO.

[snowray]

Here comes a bit of quality from the ECM,

T96, -8/-9c hpa into the east/South East, better chance of wintry shower activity and streamers in the east on this run, cold.

[SMU]

Worthy of a boom !!! 120

 

[ICE COLD]

-12 in at t120 ????

Edit - you just beat me Steve ?

Edited January 31, 2018 by ICE COLD

[That ECM]

Ecm going for it in a big way

Edited January 31, 2018 by That ECM

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

cant Really argue with ECM 96

epic chart- -10c incoming Sunday lunch

I reckon there’d be some snow showers about nothing in S/E crazy but nice.  

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

-12 in at t120 ????

WOW so where's the pesky short waves or Norwegian kink 

Edited January 31, 2018 by winterof79

[tight isobar]

ec...has it on...

bringing in the cold 

as smooth as ice!!.'pun intended'..

Edited January 31, 2018 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

WOW so where's the pesky shot wave or Norwegian kink 

On a plane with Ryad Mahrez?

[Stuie]

What do they say, get the cold in first... Well Monday isn`t too shabby....

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

ec...has it on...

bringing in the cold 

as smooth as ice!!.'pun intended'..

Houston  we have a technical issue.

That wedge of "warmth" should be snack bang over us .....cos it always is

[ITSY]

Forgive me but where are the tight isobars to drive any streamers or showers inland at +120. Don’t get me wrong, the ecm offers great charts for coldies but I don’t see how an extremely slack easterly (even with very cold uppers) can produce much for anyone away from extreme coastal areas. 

What grabs my atttention more is that it appears, having been through 60% of them, that all GEFS members completely split the strat vortex at 10hpa. Nothing guarantees cold and snow for our little island but that is probably the closest to it....

Edited January 31, 2018 by ITSY

[That ECM]

Right, moan about this one a chart for all!! 

[The Northern Ramper]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

WOW so where's the pesky short waves or Norwegian kink 

They'll arrive in 36 hours

[bluearmy]

only comment thus far on the ec op is the 16c isotherm edging into Cyprus day 6 .......... that's better !!!

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Houston  we have a technical issue.

That wedge of "warmth" should be snack bang over us .....cos it always is

The sliver of sector warm' is flittering away run2 run..as the pooling develops (cold).. with model decipher/progression..

[Daniel*]

Odd chart but extremely cold. Some really notable lows possible in usual places for instance Norwich.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Daniel*

[SMU]

Boom

its like a firework display

[snowray]

T144. Snow moving in from the west, this will be 90% snowfall, very cold with -8/-10 hpa air.

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Right, moan about this one a chart for all!! 

*clears throat.... "But those uppers are marginal!!!The sun is too strong in February!!!!!!"

[shaky]

Just now, snowray said:

T144. Snow moving in from the west, this will be 90% snowfall, very cold with -8/-10 hpa air.

90 percent??more like a thousand percent lol

[Optimus Prime]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

ec...has it on...

bringing in the cold 

as smooth as ice!!.'pun intended'..

It's on a knifes edge really whether any of that cold gets advected in the direction of west proper. I fully suspect the near continent is in for some decent winter weather. It may get cold here but I suspect we will miss out this time. 

[tight isobar]

Seriously great synoptics 

Its going 2 be difficult to quickly remove cold after infer..with the depleted jet block forms; and hem situ...

Could be onto a rel winner here!!!!

[CK1981]

11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

*clears throat.... "But those uppers are marginal!!!The sun is too strong in February!!!!!!"

Oh a childish dig at me. Well if you can read, my post says snow doesn’t stick around on the ground for long at the end of February. I said nothing about it falling from the sky and these charts are for early February. You always get one wannabe comedian though...

Edited January 31, 2018 by CK1981