Model output discussion - mid January

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Serious answer- yes gfs has a westerly modeled catch- however the jet and stat have differential meets..and cold is already embeded..

Its a real unusual format tbf..

But could cause chaos in predict..and snowfall on the ground..in a nutshell.

Thers a challenge at 10 hpa with a split looking immenent..and the factors of nw-vs-east-ne..

Are eye watering..but great 4 ourselves!!

All sorts of chaos suddenly flagging..

To which we could do v-well..

You have my full attention for a lengthy cold spell after the firming up over the last 48 hrs.MET update is simply lovely too.

[reef]

Its subtle, but the GFS 12z is quite a bit different to the 06z. On this run the cold air doesn't make it as far east, so when the front arrives on Monday night it is mainly rain away from high ground:

The rest of the run is then pretty much what we've had all winter: polar maritime incursions followed by a day or so of less cold weather before the next wave comes in. They are particularly potent though, so northern and western areas would do extremely well. For those in the east and south-east it would be much like winter so far: that is, dry and sunny with the slim chance of showers making it through for a dusting or hoping for unforecast features such as troughs closer to the time.

The UKMO is slightly better, but away from the far south-east the upper flow isn't favourable for any showers. Its pretty much a kent-clipper.

[bobbydog]

sidney wont be happy...

Edited January 31, 2018 by bobbydog

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, reef said:

Its subtle, but the GFS 12z is quite a bit different to the 06z. On this run the cold air doesn't make it as far east, so when the front arrives on Monday night it is mainly rain away from high ground:

The rest of the run is then pretty much what we've had all winter: polar maritime incursions followed by a day or so of less cold weather before the next wave comes in. They are particularly potent though, so northern and western areas would do extremely well. For those in the east and south-east it would be much like winter so far: that is, dry and sunny with the slim chance of showers making it through for a dusting or hoping for unforecast features such as troughs closer to the time.

The UKMO is slightly better, but away from the far south-east the upper flow isn't favourable for any showers. Its pretty much a kent-clipper.

What do you mean the rest of the run, its not half way through ( 12z) or are you talking about the 6z

[Optimus Prime]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Read the iso-charts my friend..

Its far from bog standard!!

Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

- It is pretty bog standard to February.

  -good debate mind

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

What do you mean the rest of the run, its not half way through ( 12z) or are you talking about the 6z

It is on Wetter

[reef]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

What do you mean the rest of the run, its not half way through ( 12z) or are you talking about the 6z

Sorry, up to the lower-res section (pre-T+240hrs).

[Banbury]

Some cold air there for sure

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

- It is pretty bog standard to February.

  -good debate mind

Not much debate to be had when one poster starts whining that he cant see what all the fuss is about. 

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

It is on Wetter

Apologies

[Methuselah]

Now this I will only believe when I see it!

[Daniel*]

SSTs have changed a fair bit in 6 days not necessarily for the better the milder drawn winds have wiped out cold blob to SW all of North Sea now above average, on plus side convection enhanced..

24/01  30/01 

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

- It is pretty bog standard to February.

  -good debate mind

You sound like my missus.

???

[frosty ground]

Main course...?

[WalsallWeather123]

22 minutes ago, weirpig said:

There will be no snow before then. Remember we need uppers of around the point that mercury freezes for any wintryness . 

At T162 on the GFS the uppers are -10 which is cold enough. But then at 192 they're at 0 across a large part of the UK. Just stating the facts. A prolonged cold spell looks unlikely. Interchangeable conditions between cold and mild looks likely

Edited January 31, 2018 by WalsallWeather123

[Summerstorm]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Main course...?

Just for fun of course as it is out in FI but here is the uppers chart to go with it. I will coin the famous phrase and say what could go wrong 

 

Edited January 31, 2018 by Summerstorm

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Sorry but I'm not taking your word for it.

- It is pretty bog standard to February.

  -good debate mind

Agree with this post  100 percent  mind you there is only 7 hours left 

[Paul_1978]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not much debate to be had when one poster starts whining that he cant see what all the fuss is about. 

It's hardly "whining". And to be honest I agree with @Optimus Prime - on face value I can't see anything noteworthy in low res, but I will bow to those with better knowledge!

[Methuselah]

Plenty of room for downgrades, methinks!

GFS, you are having a laugh!

Edited January 31, 2018 by Ed Stone

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Main course...?

I’m already wondering what’s for desert 

[Daniel*]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Now this I will only believe when I see it!

GFS in FI is stunning I’d take that over what we may have next week extreme cold there. Interestingly this is where the ‘experts’ have talked about a real stab at something big towards mid month and beyond.

[Mucka]

That is some end to the GFS run, chunk of PV marching West toward the UK.

MetO are behind some form of Easterly flow mid month but not sure this is what they had in mind.

[weirpig]

12 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

At T162 on the GFS the uppers are -10 which is cold enough. But then at 192 they're at 0 across a large part of the UK. Just stating the facts. A prolonged cold spell looks unlikely. Interchangeable conditions between cold and mild looks likely

192??  I will leave this conversation here.  The models will be  different in 20 hrs  as you said they will flip so why are you commenting on snow melt  at uppers of 0  At 192 ? Also with snow cover,  uppers of zero  may not produce melt  in fact with surface cold and snow cover it would be cold  anyway that's me done 

[Summerstorm]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m already wondering what’s for desert 

Yep still looking tasty or should i say toasty.. on the 12z run Karl  But let's not get carried away yet eh 

 

Edited January 31, 2018 by Summerstorm

[TEITS]

Like I said earlier I haven't followed the output very closely lately. However what we are about to experience is actually rather unusual in my opinion.

We have the situation where the intial E,ly will bring much colder temps from the E although personally very little snow from this. The fun and games and how this is unusual is fronts are likely to spread S&E next week. Apart from the front moving into cold air, the airmass behind the fronts are likely to be very cold which is rare.

Even more exciting is  beyond. Potential for an even colder E,ly? Whatever happens Feb should be interesting.