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Model output discussion - mid January


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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Hot off the press ECM mean out to day 9 !!!! Debilt ENS will be the best yet with ice days

51B9FCD0-6D65-4FB9-B3F8-4022EECCBA8A.thumb.png.eb11fa944bbd79439fbe9d36064b4bd4.png

-4 for the majority.If we ramp this up any more there will be no toys left to throw by weekend

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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

-4 for the majority.If we ramp this up any more there will be no toys left to throw by weekend

Come now, as a mean at day 9 that is pretty good. Consider the spread that informs that mean.

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4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

-4 for the majority.If we ramp this up any more there will be no toys left to throw by weekend

There’s no -4 anywhere for the Uk

that day 9 is after days of solid cold for the UK

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Is this a dream come true!!is it actually happening/gona happen!!!am trying to hold my excitement levels down here!!one more upgrade on the 12z and i swear am gona go crazy lol!!anyway on to the 06z for further upgrades!!

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1 hour ago, Banbury said:

I'm not too sure about a snowy weekend ( potentially ) , lets be realistic here, yes much colder

Agreed - not much in the precipitation based charts that suggest any particularly snowy set ups ---at this stage--- . Looking good for a bit of frigid cold currently though. Boy it annoys me too when people take things out of proportion !! 

Very interesting noting the likes of the GFS completely back tracking  to these kind of set ups though - hats off to the UKMO/Longer term trend charts for getting it right once again. 

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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We're almost at the breathe and relax stage for coldies!

Almost unbearable tension seeing the outputs this morning!

I think we need just one more run to confirm the trigger shortwave and overall this morning not much change in terms of pattern from last night although we do see the ECM filtering in some deeper cold because it manages to sharpen up the upstream trough.

The ECM also brings another shortwave south near the west of the UK at T168hrs.

The Azores high remains displaced to the west throughout its run which is good.

The outputs given last nights MJO update look too flat over the USA and Canada past day 7 with the suggestion of  continued progress into phase 8 and high pressure digging south over Canada which would tend to pull the PV a bit further to the nw.

So are we at Amber or Green on the Nick Sussex warning system?

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This is the JMA 84 for sat midday-

BC51F442-981A-4C99-B230-92DD200F8D2A.thumb.png.a62632d5d5b7afd4a875d8a695271759.png

Very high probability of rain turn increasingly to snow throughout the day as  there’s colder & colder air invading the PPN -

The NW looks good as does Scotland - but anywhere where where the PPN feeds through before it gets cut off-

poss NI as well for convective potential 

Edited by Steve Murr
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Just now, Seasonality said:

So are we at Amber or Green on the Nick Sussex warning system?

Amber Red hybrid ! :D

Past experience with trigger shortwaves and the UKs ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory! 

Seriously though probably amber green mix for the initial shortwave given the good cross model agreement but depth of cold still a bit more uncertain.

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes get in there

this is 2012 all over again with the deeper cold closer-

That time every single time the models brought the mild air east into the block they then backtracked to bringing it south east over the UK

awsome chart-

3382F404-8C3C-4337-B3F1-9EBE67129F7E.thumb.png.244032529b115b7020f156ad99cee276.png

Steve - you can get Apple to replace your battery for £25 now - maybe worth a  punt??

Edited by Johnp
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7 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Steve - you can get Apple to replace your battery for £25 now - maybe worth a go?

Lol - wifey always pinches the charger...

anyway..

Awaiting Debilt ENS - expecting the mean to be 4-5 ice days ..

Edited by Steve Murr
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2 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

I'm confused now, UKMO and many other charts show widespread cold developing but yet Swansea BBC forecast is dry from tomorrow until well into next week with daytime highs between 7-9C throughout. Very strange 

I agree as it's similar for Tenby Pembrokeshire between 6-9C and apart from light showers Saturday it's dry with sunny spells. Now that could be the result of an easterly as it often brings drier, sunnier weather to the west but as temperatures are measured in the shade not in direct sunlight, I'd have thought it would still be colder than suggested tbh

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has high pressure close by dry for the majority though some showers around the coasts for England and Wales maybe a bit more widespread in Scotland

ukm2.2018020700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6fcd3084374869933217b257a88ae432.png

So, the easterly quickly flips to a northwesterly according to the UKMO.

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1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

So, the easterly quickly flips to a northwesterly according to the UKMO.

Exactly what the beebs forecast last night showed the high sometimes back far enough south to allow milder spells before returning colder from the north west

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Exactly what the beebs forecast last night showed the high sometimes back far enough south to allow milder spells before returning colder from the north west

Which is exactly why I’m not getting carried away by a more prolonged flow from the east......yet!

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Just now, CK1981 said:

Which is exactly why I’m not getting carried away by a more prolonged flow from the east......yet!

Remember though you don’t see europe

you might think that but it’s almost the same as ECM

834FA76D-C1BD-4743-A628-2A949E59BE73.thumb.png.8dc9c40b2b7bc858ded3305f6399fd64.png

updated IKON 6z to 84 a lot closer to the JMA

15C69EFF-C575-4221-BD8A-70FF4E9E9CCF.thumb.png.cbe6ddb6ac3f4ae72453d65d118e962d.png

 

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Chart of the 0z runs for me is the Euro at day 6 as it holds out longest on the easterly (no snow but very cold)..

ECM1-144.GIF

As ever, the GFS did get pretty good in FI though with this day 12 chart..

gfsnh-0-288.png?0?0

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember though you don’t see europe

you might think that but it’s almost the same as ECM

834FA76D-C1BD-4743-A628-2A949E59BE73.thumb.png.8dc9c40b2b7bc858ded3305f6399fd64.png

updated IKON 6z to 84 a lot closer to the JMA

15C69EFF-C575-4221-BD8A-70FF4E9E9CCF.thumb.png.cbe6ddb6ac3f4ae72453d65d118e962d.png

 

That’s true, and I am hopeful, but we’ve been down this road many times only for all models to back away nearer the time. I agree things look more in our favour this time though. I guess it’s a matter of watch and wait now.

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