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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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Cracking ECM! And at 240, a good example of how you don't need raging Scandi heights for a cold outcome. That little wedge of weak heights is doing nicely thank you! Certainly going to be cold in the East and South East if this comes off.

 

ECH0-240.gif

ECH1-240 (3).gif

tempresult_yrz3.gif

Keith_Lemon_Square_Birthday_Card__39176.1376941091.900.900.jpg

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Err did that ECM just happen?? Never seen such deep cold on fairly innocuous looking 500mb charts. Great call by the METO if this happens.

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Wow wow wow!!!!!!!!!!!!what a set off overnight runs!!scandi high galore!!and it all starts today if u think about it!!cold sets in today and does not look like letting go for the forseable future!!weekend is looking potentially frigid and snowy across many areas!!can it upgrade further though🤔

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4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

First pic shows surface temps widely below freezing on Monday afternoon at 3:00 according to the latest ECM. Then another widespread ice day on Tuesday.

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018013100_141_4855_210.png

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2018013100_162_4855_210.png

That fooled me briefly before but but bear in mind that's 'Central Standard Time' which is 6 hours behind us, so those images are for 21:00 and 18:00 GMT

Edited by Evening thunder

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6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wow wow wow!!!!!!!!!!!!what a set off overnight runs!!scandi high galore!!and it all starts today if u think about it!!cold sets in today and does not look like letting go for the forseable future!!weekend is looking potentially frigid and snowy across many areas!!can it upgrade further though🤔

I'm not too sure about a snowy weekend ( potentially ) , lets be realistic here, yes much colder

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Just now, Evening thunder said:

That fooled me briefly before but but bear in mind that's 'Central Standard Time' which is 6 hours behind us, so that's 21:00 GMT

My bad, consider myself corrected!

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23 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Err did that ECM just happen?? Never seen such deep cold on fairly innocuous looking 500mb charts. Great call by the METO if this happens.

I don't see ANY mention of deep cold from the forecasts issued.Nor any appreciative snowfalls.....yet.

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

 

If only my wife could understand my fascination of looking at weather charts ...

27067764_1801370456548110_5388820886057393550_n.thumb.jpg.d7a57ee9c4fe5892d495788d79dd1b9d.jpg

Wow nick - didn’t realise you were a newlywed !!!!  Wife thinking of love hearts ...........

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

I don't see ANY mention of deep cold from the forecasts issued.Nor any appreciative snowfalls.....yet.

I think he means the UKMO model output being fairly consistent in showing this progression.

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Cautious optimism as we sail the rocky model boat forward.

Let's get the easterly with t48 lol.

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1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

I think he means the UKMO model output being fairly consistent in showing this progression.

Hopefully upgrades in the written forecasts today. Very interesting and unusual out put again overnight with cold encroaching from both sides.#Nick i feel your pain.:D

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8 minutes ago, joggs said:

Cautious optimism as we sail the rocky model boat forward.

Let's get the easterly with t48 lol.

Indeed, with great charts like this at 144 the only way now is to watch as everything back tracks. Just a tease again guys.....

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2 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Indeed, with great charts like this at 144 the only way now is to watch as everything back tracks. Just a tease again guys.....

The trend is towards colder though Chevron. We have gone from seemingly nothing to at least a 4 day cold spell over 36 hours of modelling.

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ECM is awesome, with not just the SE getting serious continuous deep cold.  So we are now entering more or less on cue (if it is right and remains so) the coldest spell of winter.  It should be a 2 week event too......

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Just now, Paceyboy said:

The trend is towards colder though Chevron. We have gone from seemingly nothing to at least a 4 day cold spell over 36 hours of modelling.

Never mind the trends...experience tells charts we are now seeing will not verify, with a much watered down version actually happening. 

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1 minute ago, Chevron12345 said:

Never mind the trends...experience tells charts we are now seeing will not verify, with a much watered down version actually happening. 

I dont agree. After wednesday it may not continue but sunday to wednesday has trended colder. We will just have to see however upgrades *appear* to be the trend.

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5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM is awesome, with the SE getting serious continuous deep cold.  So we are now entering more or less on cue (if it is right and remains so) the coldest spell of winter.  It should be a 2 week event too......

 

BFTP

I think the Control run will trump the operational for cold!  -12/-13 850s over good part of England (days 5-7)!!

Edited by mulzy

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1 minute ago, Paceyboy said:

I dont agree. After wednesday it may not continue but sunday to wednesday has trended colder. We will just have to see however upgrades *appear* to be the trend.

Fair enough, and yes the charts have upgraded for the period you suggest. Good luck to you, don't be too disappointed when this easterly fails again.

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19 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Indeed, with great charts like this at 144 the only way now is to watch as everything back tracks. Just a tease again guys.....

Given its not one -random operational that aligned, with some of us have been flagiing the prognosis...that with suite support ens/plots etc...

Throwing in our countrys own meteorologiical forcasters(MET) prog-..and the progression into the colder arena..as we evolve!!!obviously we'll see what today brings.

But i think we are @where most would like to be.

 

Edited by tight isobar

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