Model output discussion - mid January

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It wasn't so long ago that the GEFS had over 50% showing Easterlies with a good number of them brutal with another 25% looking like they would go on to do likewise, as soon as they entered the MORE reliable timeframe they collapsed, I know what will get trotted out even when we are within 96 hours with all 70 odd members over 2 suites not showing an Easterly - 'they will flip back again', ' no one knows for certain', 'FI is 72' etc etc but that isn't my problem, my problem is that even when it is proven, there will still be animosity towards those who saw what was coming first, and they will be chastised, marginalised and ridiculed the next time, and it will completely go over peoples heads what actually happened.

I agree with you on this one, time and time again we see once the trend goes against an easterly it's a complete runaway train, people always use the same phrases yet I'm not sure the last time I saw the models flip from a phantom easterly and THEN flip back again.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Weathizard said:

I agree with you on this one, time and time again we see once the trend goes against an easterly it's a complete runaway train, people always use the same phrases yet I'm not sure the last time I saw the models flip from a phantom easterly and THEN flip back again.

Yes, just to be clear, I questioned John Holmes's post (a respected pro) the other day because he said he didn't see any signal, so risking doing that proves I am not ramping one way or the other, at the time there were a lot of ens members still showing an Easterly, where I differ from most though is when it comes into the 144-216 range and the half suite becomes a quarter then just a couple of stragglers, I say it straight away and that's what people don't like, once you get to that point the margin for error decreases and the need for big upgrades increases with Each suite,

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, just to be clear, I questioned John Holmes's post (a respected pro) the other day because he said he didn't see any signal, so risking doing that proves I am not ramping one way or the other, at the time there were a lot of ens members still showing an Easterly, where I differ from most though is when it comes into the 144-216 range and the half suite becomes a quarter then just a couple of stragglers, I say it straight away and that's what people don't like, once you get to that point the margin for error decreases and the need for big upgrades increases with Each suite,

Yeah I get that but the period in question has only just come into the 144-216 range in fact it's the very back end. All I'll say is I believe when this approaches nearer 144 I'd expect the ensemble percentage to increase! I could be wrong but it's my opinion and call at the moment

[karlos1983]

CFS goes crazy blocky mid Feb

sorry @weirpig that's probably 2/3 from me in 24 hours 

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by karlos1983

[Chesil View]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Sorry but even allowing for the significance of a 20% cluster against climatology, I still think they are seeing mogreps-15 and glosea supporting this. This is not the ukmo solution as it’s day 10/15 timescale.

i expect it to be dropped by tomorrow’s forecast - the trend to northwest/southeast jet axis from the Canadian vortex into Eastern Europe grows apace  

I get where you're coming from Blue but if their own extended models  like Mogreps 15 are showing it  plus what they consider a consistent and significant number of ECM ensembles why would they go against their own model if thats what its showing.  Models can change of course but at the moment we don't know which one is on the money. 

[tight isobar]

51 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

CFS goes crazy blocky mid Feb

sorry @weirpig that's probably 2/3 from me in 24 hours 

 

An, obvious unlikely outcome given the mod CFS-but further highlights there are many ways for cold transfer to our part.....

Even with large lobe canadian/NW-Northern hem-limpit vortex.....

Anyway' 12z suites upcoming, and no doubt conflicting evo's once again...although i dont think theres long in it b4 we can begin to draw conclusions!?...

Edited January 30, 2018 by tight isobar

[shaky]

Hmmm changes at 48 hours on gfs!!more amplification around iceland this run!!could it be goin ukmo way!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Hmmm changes at 48 hours on gfs!!more amplification around iceland this run!!could it be goin ukmo way!

Yes!! incredible given the time frames..

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes!! incredible given the time frames..

Yup and if ukmo sticks with it then am afraid gfs is playin catch up!

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

week or two ago ?

surprised to see Exeter still talking about an easterly flow later week 2, given the extended eps and clusters.  looks like a 20% risk which is about where its been for quite a while

I am not convinced by any easterly, never have been. However, the UK Met upper air chart I copied in here earlier is perhaps part of the reason they seem to have a ridge NE of the UK. Not sure what number it was, will find it and put the number in here so folk can see what I am referring to.

page 77, 7 hours ago, 10 or 11 about from the top of that page

Edited January 30, 2018 by johnholmes

[weirpig]

gfs  takes quite a step towards the UKMO 0z     The Low is nowhere near as over blown as its previous runs.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

gfs  takes quite a step towards the UKMO 0z     The Low is nowhere near as over blown as its previous runs.

 Vs

[weirpig]

Comparison below.  UKMO  GFS

[frosty ground]

UKM 120 Hour Chart.... Sicking to its guns as they say.

[shaky]

Lovely ukmo at 120 hours!!east north east winds into england!!continues the theme from the 00z!!could be a snow fall across england this weekend!!chances are increasimg!also arpege joins the ukmo party aswell at 84 hours!!

Edited January 30, 2018 by shaky

[karlos1983]

Quite the turn around 

Edited January 30, 2018 by karlos1983

[Snowman.]

GFS has caught up quite a bit still flatter than the UKMO but in the same ballpark

[snowray]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

UKM 120 Hour Chart.... Sicking to its guns as they say.

Yes I was just about to say just that, sticking to its guns, T144 looking better too.

[karlos1983]

UKMO at 144 Very nice 

[shaky]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

UKMO at 144 Very nice 

Much better than this mornings run!!ecm cmon finish this evening off with a belter!!

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes I was just about to say just that, sticking to its guns, T144 looking better too.

Whilst the chart screams potential it seems a big ask to get the low towards Iceland to disrupt South East into Europe and bring in the beast.

Edited January 30, 2018 by mountain shadow

[frosty ground]

Just now, snowray said:

Yes I was just about to say just that, sticking to its guns, T144 looking better too.

Hmmmmm That's the point in which some Atlantic energy needs to cut south East but you can see the progression from 120 to 144 for the upper high to increase.

[frosty ground]

Seen this a lot recently, A mild sector being squeezed out over the UK

[inghams85]

Baby steps! Tuesday 12z onwards! Let the fun and games and (upgrades) build from here on in!

The progression of of the Atlantic is slowing now with every run! May get some battle ground snow before the easterly winds hit home 8th onwards

Edited January 30, 2018 by inghams85

[mountain shadow]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Hmmmmm That's the point in which some Atlantic energy needs to cut south East but you can see the progression from 120 to 144 for the upper high to increase.

All important UKMET+168 later to see whether any energy disrupts in the Atlantic!