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Model output discussion - mid January


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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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Which model is going to be right then? The differences at 5 days are quite stark..

image.thumb.png.cc79116515d70bb7eab35c0218f971fd.png GFS 114hrs 6z run (0z was also identical at 120hrs to this)

image.thumb.png.83131d8a5ed8778e155d2ffa39bed319.pngUKMO 120hrs 0z run

 

You beat me to it Karlos :-)

Edited by grca
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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Huge differences between GFS and UKMO 

gfsnh-0-114.png?6Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

It really is a difference   main point being that the Gfs pushes the low across the uk and amplifies behind it.  and the UKMO Amplifies and pushes the low up to the main chunk of vortex thus being able to ridge higher towards scandi.   Seeing as it at such close range you would have thought the UKMO would have a better handle  seeing as its the second best verifying model.  However  loads to be resolved  

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Interestingly the ECM has a snow event Saturday down the spine of the country, fairly significant falls for Penines, but shows snow down to central S England. Birmingham picking up 2-3 inches.

Edited by karlos1983
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18 minutes ago, grca said:

Which model is going to be right then? The differences at 5 days are quite stark..

image.thumb.png.cc79116515d70bb7eab35c0218f971fd.png GFS 114hrs 6z run (0z was also identical at 120hrs to this)

image.thumb.png.83131d8a5ed8778e155d2ffa39bed319.pngUKMO 120hrs 0z run

 

You beat me to it Karlos :-)

As ever, the one that is worse for UK cold will verify?

Edited by Johnp
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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

The Icon  at 120hrs  again seems to be siding more with the Euros.  does not  let the low transverse across the UK

iconnh-0-120.png

The ICON is a “Euro”. :)

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Just now, mulzy said:

The ICON is a “Euro”. :)

:rofl:  So it is   You know what i ment Mulzy    for clarity  and people like Mulzy  siding with the ECM and UKMO.    (theres always one)

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Differences start as early as 72 hours between ukmo ecm and ggfs!!ecm ukmo same gfs more progressive in pushing evrrything east!!id back the euros 2 against 1 any day but not so sure anymore as all models seem to be all over the place these days!!!

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5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Saw a comment on an Arctic sea ice forum regarding the upcoming extreme vortex pattern (strong winds ripping across a large swathe of the Arctic) and it was stated that there is a positive mountain torque event unfolding for which the key driver is in a region of notoriously poor observation data, with the deduction then made that the scale of the MT event and subsequent impacts (propagation of anomalies to amplify the pattern) may see some considerable upgrades over the coming days.

So the obvious question for me to pose now is - how credible is that statement and deduction? TIA :hi:

Good post and yes we have been here b4-with the data [email protected] #alaska!..

So the mass of vortex -again- needs to be looked at with a very open minded view.....

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Jma 06z continues the good outlook for snow this weekend!!disrupts that low to the north west way more than gfs at 84 hours!probably bring a snow event across the uk on saturday just like ecm and ukmo!!

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1 hour ago, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

I know it almost certainly won't happen, but how often do we see -10 850s from an Atlantic depression ?

Screenshot_2018-01-30_12-27-08.thumb.png.c2d45361f2793e71f264829ed110233b.png

week or two ago ?

surprised to see Exeter still talking about an easterly flow later week 2, given the extended eps and clusters.  looks like a 20% risk which is about where its been for quite a while

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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

week or two ago ?

surprised to see Exeter still talking about an easterly flow later week 2, given the extended eps and clusters.  looks like a 20% risk which is about where its been for quite a while

Against climatology that's still a fairly large cluster considering the bias factored in for prevailing westerly winds at those time frames

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Just now, bluearmy said:

week or two ago ?

surprised to see Exeter still talking about an easterly flow later week 2, given the extended eps and clusters.  looks like a 20% risk which is about where its been for quite a while

Hi Blue. Fergie tweeted ukmo's view on this last week. Namely because easterly rsgimes are so rare and against climatology 20-25% clustering  is considered a higher than average risk. against the (and these are fergies word not mine) the inevitable leaning towards climatology in any set of ensembles.

Edit Inghams 85 beat me to it.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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10 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Against climatology that's still a fairly large cluster considering the bias factored in for prevailing westerly winds at those time frames

It wasn't so long ago that the GEFS had over 50% showing Easterlies with a good number of them brutal with another 25% looking like they would go on to do likewise, as soon as they entered the MORE reliable timeframe they collapsed, I know what will get trotted out even when we are within 96 hours with all 70 odd members over 2 suites not showing an Easterly - 'they will flip back again', ' no one knows for certain', 'FI is 72' etc etc but that isn't my problem, my problem is that even when it is proven, there will still be animosity towards those who saw what was coming first, and they will be chastised, marginalised and ridiculed the next time, and it will completely go over peoples heads what actually happened.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Sorry but even allowing for the significance of a 20% cluster against climatology, I still think they are seeing mogreps-15 and glosea supporting this. This is not the ukmo solution as it’s day 10/15 timescale.

i expect it to be dropped by tomorrow’s forecast - the trend to northwest/southeast jet axis from the Canadian vortex into Eastern Europe grows apace  

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