Model output discussion - mid January

[weirpig]

Mmm ecm whilst not perfect  is certainly towards the ukmo. Certainly colder and the east very close to mind numbing uppers. Good start to the day 

[Weathizard]

Poor ECM, once again the power of the vortex in that position destroying any hope for HLB, it's all so predictable. You can still get scandi heights with the vortex in that area but it's nye on impossible with a vortex as powerful and as cold as that.

The models have been very guilty of overplaying blocking this winter, the vortex has pretty much always had the upper hand... only 48 hours ago we had an ensemble mean of below -5.. now it's nowhere near that and to be honest I don't see a way out of this pattern anytime soon.

 

[igloo]

Looks like a few colder days next week followed with milder stuff as the lows crash over the PV if anything looks to be  picking up strength as feb goes on just maybe this is the last hara from it before it explodes or is that just whishfull thinking

[Fozfoster]

16 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Mmm ecm whilst not perfect  is certainly towards the ukmo. Certainly colder and the east very close to mind numbing uppers. Good start to the day 

 

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hmmm . The output is terrible this morning for cold . All them nice cold runs gone . So much for the mjo? MJO stands for Massive Joke Over . 

#confused.com

[carinthian]

11 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Mmm ecm whilst not perfect  is certainly towards the ukmo. Certainly colder and the east very close to mind numbing uppers. Good start to the day 

UKMO holding its own this morning. Quite a robust ridge of high pressure building towards Scandinavia with a surface Easterly flow into Southern Britain by 144h with colder air advection ( potentially the most robust of the season ) taking place in the lower layers. ECM best placed towards UKMO scenario at the same time. Really looks like Euro models against Americans. Will be really interesting to read Exeter thoughts post 144h or at best we may be able to see where we are going by the time we have the extended 168h N Atlantic chart to view.

 C

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Hmmm . The output is terrible this morning for cold . All them nice cold runs gone . So much for the mjo? MJO stands for Massive Joke Over . 

Not entirely sure I agree with this.

EC has moved towards UKMO this morning- 

UKMO still slightly better than EC at 144 and energy distribution will most likely not be programmed exactly at that range.

Personally i feel the 00z runs are a step in the right direction (gfs aside).

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, igloo said:

Looks like a few colder days next week followed with milder stuff as the lows crash over the PV if anything looks to be  picking up strength as feb goes on just maybe this is the last hara from it before it explodes or is that just whishfull thinking

The Ens show more in the way of colder than avg temps than mild, not sure where your getting your info from ?

[tight isobar]

Some truly 'bizzare' posts this morning!!

We are talking 144 @most given the obvious, situ's in place...and upto the point in base-144-..its not far-from cracking synoptics!...

[Seasonality]

Delete

 

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by Seasonality

[Weathizard]

36 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some truly 'bizzare' posts this morning!!

We are talking 144 @most given the obvious, situ's in place...and upto the point in base-144-..its not far-from cracking synoptics!...

The models have been overdoing northern blocking pretty much the whole of winter and not once have we got any proper sustainable winter sypnotics.

In my opinion the 144 chart, although not dreadful is only ever going one way with the power of the PV flattening the ridge and as such flattening the pattern again, with the day 10+ mean suggesting no movement of the PV its hard to see where the next opportunity arises.

 

re: UKMO, it's the best of the bunch but fraught with danger and given it's performance at 144 this winter i don't put much credence in it when it goes against pretty much all other models.

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by Weathizard

[ANYWEATHER]

40 minutes ago, carinthian said:

UKMO holding its own this morning. Quite a robust ridge of high pressure building towards Scandinavia with a surface Easterly flow into Southern Britain by 144h with colder air advection ( potentially the most robust of the season ) taking place in the lower layers. ECM best placed towards UKMO scenario at the same time. Really looks like Euro models against Americans. Will be really interesting to read Exeter thoughts post 144h or at best we may be able to see where we are going by the time we have the extended 168h N Atlantic chart to view.

 C

To be honest any build of pressure to the north east of the uk looks very fleeting indeed ,I think with the intense cold over north America is building a super strong jet towards the uk ,so we need to brace ourselves for some potential stormy conditions, albeit with some transient ridges allowing for calmer with froster overnight and I would imagine that the Scottish mountaIns in picticuler will do well out of this. We need a big pattern change over north America before we see any beast from the east. Unfortunately for coldies more patience is needed

[lassie23]

43 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some truly 'bizzare' posts this morning!!

We are talking 144 @most given the obvious, situ's in place...and upto the point in base-144-..its not far-from cracking synoptics!...

Yes i agree, read one post that said good start to the day for coldies and thought woohoo, then read the next post which said terrible out put for coldies

[tight isobar]

14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The models have been overdoing northern blocking pretty much the whole of winter and not once have we got any proper sustainable winter sypnotics.

In my opinion the 144 chart, although not dreadful is only ever going one way with the power of the PV flattening the ridge and as such flattening the pattern again, with the day 10+ mean suggesting no movement of the PV its hard to see where the next opportunity arises.

 

re: UKMO, it's the best of the bunch but fraught with danger and given it's performance at 144 this winter i don't put much credence in it when it goes against pretty much all other models.

 

And the ukmo-mod..along with mods behind closed doors(so to speak) are in agree-to a large degree!!..as is the mets-own longer range forecast....

Not to mention a fare few ens.

The maxing-of the pv-large lobe is although modeled unfavourable(@present)..has had tweaks-and twitches of a more stagnant-limpit base.... that would be more than enough for ample decent advection northwards-of high cell evolvement..and placings become then-..very cute on the eye!!!

Edit;...

And we are likely to see this being played out to different exactions through the day.

Could honestly go either way!!???

 

Edited January 30, 2018 by tight isobar

[Staffordshire]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

Latest profile up top for mid month...

 

Have any of these projected warming this year actually came past +300hr?

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts continue to be consistent in showing nothing developing to the NE of the UK in the 6-14 day period. The 3 main ones have moved from an Atlantic troughy pattern near the UK to a more ridgy type as the upper ridge edges NE from the Azores.

Will this movement be the start of ridging over the UK and then further NE. I do not know. Maybe 3-4 days from now this should be clearer?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

looking at the UK Met set of upper air charts (scroll to 120h Fax and then further down), and they show a fairly consistent trend to build the upper ridge over and NE of the UK. I suspect this, along with other data they can access is behind their 6-15 day and further outlook.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Edited January 30, 2018 by johnholmes

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Not entirely sure I agree with this.

EC has moved towards UKMO this morning- 

UKMO still slightly better than EC at 144 and energy distribution will most likely not be programmed exactly at that range.

Personally i feel the 00z runs are a step in the right direction (gfs aside).

Agreed NWS.

Welcome back sir 

[mulzy]

On a train with dodgy wi-if.  Can one of you kind people check the ECM eps on weather.us and tell us how many are similar to UKMO day 6?  Many thanks.

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

UKMO holding its own this morning. Quite a robust ridge of high pressure building towards Scandinavia with a surface Easterly flow into Southern Britain by 144h with colder air advection ( potentially the most robust of the season ) taking place in the lower layers. ECM best placed towards UKMO scenario at the same time. Really looks like Euro models against Americans. Will be really interesting to read Exeter thoughts post 144h or at best we may be able to see where we are going by the time we have the extended 168h N Atlantic chart to view.

 C

The extended UKMO chart at 168t seems to align with ECM latest at the same time with the short wave energy transferring well to the north of the British Isles and a upper ridge development over England and Wales as shown on the met Office fax at 120h in its earlier stages. Would be nice to see the extended charts further to the NE to see the pressure pattern prognosis/development.

C

[frosty ground]

Al the cold runs on this mornings GEFS come from the North, only the occasional and temporary waft of sub -5 air from the east

Plenty of -10 runs to for the North of the UK (down to Midlands)

[karlos1983]

19 minutes ago, mulzy said:

On a train with dodgy wi-if.  Can one of you kind people check the ECM eps on weather.us and tell us how many are similar to UKMO day 6?  Many thanks.

I make it about 20 showing decent scandi heights at D6. Although I don’t find it that easy looking on the phone. Quite good viewing on the whole it has to be said 

[mulzy]

32 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Al the cold runs on this mornings GEFS come from the North, only the occasional and temporary waft of sub -5 air from the east

Plenty of -10 runs to for the North of the UK (down to Midlands)

On your first point, patience, grasshopper patience! Watch as more and more of the gefs flip to an easterly solution...

Edited January 30, 2018 by mulzy

[karlos1983]

To add to that, looking at all 50 members  850 temps, only around 20% have positive value uppers, which look transitory at best at D6, with some impressive cold ones as well, especially for the southern half of the UK.

[Decemberof2010]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

On your first point, patience, grasshopper patience! Watch as more and more of the gefs flip to an easterly solution...

Hope you're right. Let's see if the 6z can improve 

[ICE COLD]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Not entirely sure I agree with this.

EC has moved towards UKMO this morning- 

UKMO still slightly better than EC at 144 and energy distribution will most likely not be programmed exactly at that range.

Personally i feel the 00z runs are a step in the right direction (gfs aside).

Hello mate ?. 

I'm a cold lover through and through like really really bad to the point where my misses ignores me for days when I'm glued to model watching. But if we look back at the output from a few days ago we had good op runs being churned out run after run . The ensembles were also very good flatlining at -10 and some even near -15 . We had glosea seeing a Scandinavian high . That has but all disappeared (hence my frustrating post earlier) . I know the ECM has moved towards UKMO but will be enough to give us what we all want a good cold snowy spell ? I really don't think so . Sorry to be down beat but it just never seems to come off these last 5 years and it's soooo frustrating . Look at 00z GEFS graph - 

Now from a few days ago 

there were lots of cold runs flat lining . I hope it does flip back but history says it won't ?. 

Edited January 30, 2018 by ICE COLD

[stodge]

Morning all

MY chance to look at the medium term model output this morning. Last week showed teases aplenty in FI regarding easterlies and Scandinavian blocks but perhaps that's all they ever were. We have a sharp colder blast this week and perhaps over the weekend too but that's not what most on here want and I suspect cold and dry won't cut it either. Some encouraging signs from the teleconnections however for further into February but perhaps too early for the model output at this time.

Anyway, this morning we're looking at the models for Friday February 9th:

Starting with ECM 00Z OP at T+240:

After last week's teases, a classic winter chart for the British Isles. Between the Azores HP centred over the Azores (no surprise there) and a deep LP over Iceland the British Isles is in a WSW'ly flow. A transient ridge is coming in to cross the British Isles so a quieter spell before more showers or rain from a following trough which might well form a secondary feature.

On to GEM 00Z at the same time:

Some people are very rude about GEM but this model has, in my view, done very well of late. It has wanted nothing to do with phantom E'lies or Scandinavian ridges apart from a brief flirtation which gets swept away rapidly. It does over-blow Atlantic LPs on occasion and may have done so here but the British Isles is in a cold NW'ly flow with sunshine and showers and wintry to high ground I'd imagine. The angle of the trough is well into Europe so the Azores HP has no option to topple so this version of cold/cool zonality which we've had for much of this winter continues.

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

A recognisable blend of the above solutions and after last week's huge divergence, it's pleasant to see more unanimity across the models so it's a W'ly flow from GFS this morning but a small transient ridge crossing before more unsettled conditions and an interesting little LP lurking between the two HP cells so let's see where that goes further into FI.

That does cross the British Isles but the mode into the middle of February is stormy and unsettled as a lobe of PV energy drops into the Atlantic in the form of a major LP. Some indications in the 10HPA strat profile of a new and unusually placed warming but we'll need plenty more runs to see if this is indicative of anything.

GFS 00Z Control at T+240:

A more sharply-aligned trough here so a cold and unstable NW'ly flow for the British Isles with the likelihood of snow to higher ground. Very unsettled to the end of the run but perhaps just a hint of the Atlantic weakening.

Looking at the GEFS at T+240:

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

A single rogue E'ly remains but plenty of cold N or NW'ly options out there and our old friend cold zonality which played so well for much of the north a couple of weeks ago may make a come back in February when such a flow would still be potent.

In summary, for fans of snow in the lowland south it's a bleak outlook this morning - for fans of snow in Scotland and on high ground, plenty of opportunities for transient falls. The trend toward a more settled period has ebbed away and the powerful jet fuelled by the extremely cold and tightly-organised PV is in charge throwing LP after LP across the Atlantic. The Azores HP keeps them far enough to the north not to offer any potential damage in terms of wind or excessive rainfall but those hoping for a prolonged drier spell are going to be as disappointed as those seeking snow.

I see more than a hint of our friend cool zonality in the outlook and the potential for a stormy mid-February. Beyond that, who knows ? Hints of the Atlantic weakening as the PV comes under significant attack may offer some hope - the MJO seems to have been forgotten about. One or two charts looking even further ahead suggest late February into early March may see a pattern change but in the short term I see nothing slowing down that intensely cold engine over NE Canada.