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Model output discussion - mid January


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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    No comment from me on the GFS tonight.:lazy:

    JMA all out and still looking remarkably good, reload from the NE there now showing up. Met Office do rate the JMA of course.:p

    J144-21.gif

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    00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I do think we are clutching at straws now for circa 10th -12th feb, which for the 'its not worth getting cold in after that because of sun strength - id rather spring' camp then it realistically means game over, however for those old enough to remember 5th March 1995, same date 1987, and more pertinently,  LATE APRIL 1981, who wouldn't turn their nose up at a late season dumping then there is one good piece of news from today - this chart, cant help feeling that gives us a great chance of a stonking late feb.

    gfsnh-10-384_ptw5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Don’t worry folks, start warming here to ruin spring for Sidney

    3D19EEB5-AD00-4F85-96FB-79C1B75F609C.thumb.png.f9989f305b5048f3fddbb437c9950684.png

    someone pass me a beer ?‍♂️

    EDIT: Feb just beat me to it ha ha 

    ps let’s hope GloSea can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat :spiteful: 

    44BC87ED-7B56-4EFE-9ADD-594E2F7991BB.thumb.png.9ef0c74a0170974cab7587000de2fe97.png

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018012918&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

    That really would be golden bullet - never mind the silver bullet for a stonking late feb / March

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018012918&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

    That really would be golden bullet - never mind the silver bullet for a stonking late feb / March

    That's an incredibly good place for a warming event. What's the lag on these strat events? 14-20 days???

    Edited by inghams85
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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

    That's an incredibly good place for a warming event. What's the lag on these strat events? 14-20 days???

    I think the lag is more like a month, so mid March?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

    That's an incredibly good place for a warming event. What's the lag on these strat events? 14-20 days???

    Can be a lot shorter sometimes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018012918&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

    That really would be golden bullet - never mind the silver bullet for a stonking late feb / March

    Split occurs before 384 aswell, more like 336 ish.

    That Olympic fella Cohen on twitter will like that :D

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Can be a lot shorter sometimes.

    Okay very interesting. Especially if we got Phase 8 of the MJO which would be a matter of days after. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, snowray said:

    I think the lag is more like a month, so mid March?

    No - not always, it depends, I haven't really tried to find out about this particular event as its too far out and in its infacncy in terms of its only been showing recently and this is the first time its actually got into significant SSW territory like vortex destruction territory so need to wait and see if its maintained.

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    No - not always, it depends, I haven't really tried to find out about this particular event as its too far out and in its infacncy in terms of its only been showing recently and this is the first time its actually got into significant SSW territory like vortex destruction territory so need to wait and see if its maintained.

    Thats one bit of good news then, I always thought about a month, so potentially as early as last week of Feb/first of March then, still a long way off though as you say.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, snowray said:

    Thats one bit of good news then, I always thought about a month, so potentially as early as last week of Feb/first of March then, still a long way off though as you say.:)

    If its maintained on future runs then no doubt Interitus,  Chionomaniac, Lorenzo GP etc will comment on the strat thread in the coming days so lets just wait and see, first things first, lets see if it has any GEFS 18z support.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    I’m only picking this out to say what an unusual looking chart this is...

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    Look at the strength of the displaced Azores out to the west. Not going downwards that one!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    The strat warming / split not without support although the 12z mean was even better, about a handful of members back up the op with regard to the extremities.

    gensnh-21-7-384_mke5.png

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The strat warming / split not without support although the 12z mean was even better, about a handful of members back up the op with regard to the extremities.

    gensnh-21-7-384_mke5.png

    That is decent for a mean it’s interesting the warming faded entirely from yesterday and it’s back and as ‘strong’ as ever. Model mayhem. Delayed spring a good bet I feel while it seems like a frustrating rut I have hope we’ll break out of it while there is still time left. Alarm bells will ring for me in 2 to 3 weeks time. 

    26074601-ADA3-4275-A786-940516DA0F48.thumb.png.608eb2aa280102b13d1d2d62b3e8aa35.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    That is decent for a mean it’s interesting the warming faded entirely from yesterday and it’s back and as ‘strong’ as ever. Model mayhem. Delayed spring a good bet I feel while it seems like a frustrating rut I have hope we’ll break out of it while there is still time left. Alarm bells will ring for me in 2 to 3 weeks time. 

    26074601-ADA3-4275-A786-940516DA0F48.thumb.png.608eb2aa280102b13d1d2d62b3e8aa35.png

    The warming did fade completely on the op runs and I'm led to believe lost support from ensembles but never completely lost signal (I wasn't checking ens yesterday)

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Deleted.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

    The "problem" has been that the vortex hasn't shifted from Canada and USA since it moved there I Think it was December and set up camp there. They've had an awesome winter lucky **** unfortunately that and the aZores ugh have colluded together and like a stuckrecord keep playing the same tune .... nothing wants to give resulting in a repeating pattern. Extremely frustrating model watching and if something doesn't give soon ....

    Edited by snowfish1
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Well the ukmo still refusing to give up....if only the vortex was a tad further west...

     

     

    UKMOPEU00_144_1-3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    23 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    Well the ukmo still refusing to give up....if only the vortex was a tad further west...

     

     

    UKMOPEU00_144_1-3.png

    UKMO good plus a few GFS ENS dropping lumps of the vortex south ( PRB 9 )

    A good start to the day!

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ukmo-ecm[email protected] hrs...

    The large lobe vortex is a pain for a notable punch of heights ...however some/most im sure will agree...its not a bad evo-and could certainly improve!!!!

    UW144-21.gif

    ECM1-144.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Ukmo-ecm[email protected] hrs...

    The large lobe vortex is a pain for a notable punch of heights ...however some/most im sure will agree...its not a bad evo-and could certainly improve!!!!

    UW144-21.gif

    ECM1-144.gif

    Indeed - ECM is closing in the UKMO solution.  GFS on another planet at the moment.

    Still a lot of water to flow under the bridge but in UKMO we trust!!

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