Model output discussion - mid January

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Explanations always help....;) 

Models are still back and forth with ideas or a cold(er) pattern. Much to be resolved.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

22.07!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

22.07!

22.04 actually.

[blizzard81]

What's the bets on the met fax charts taking an age to update! 

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Well that’s Pants!! Scandi Heights off the table

Edited January 29, 2018 by karlos1983

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Explanations always help....;) 

Models are still back and forth with ideas or a cold(er) pattern. Much to be resolved.

Crap for snow.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Explanations always help....;) 

Models are still back and forth with ideas or a cold(er) pattern. Much to be resolved.

It's another one of those 'more runs needed' days, peeps!

[bluearmy]

Non sign of a scandi ridge on the ec46.  Stays chilly with the ridge out west for week 3.

[blizzard81]

To be honest, I am past looking at weeks ahead when the main players don't seem to have a scooby doo at 4 days out. 

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, Snowmadsam said:

Explanations always help....;) 

Models are still back and forth with ideas or a cold(er) pattern. Much to be resolved.

My icelandic is really weak but my guess is that these are averages of the z500

[Chesil View]

Is this the same Ec 46 that continually suggested scandi hieghts in the extended range through most of last winter.. ......

perhaps it might be worth rearranging the following .......salt of huge bucket with taken, be should.

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

To be honest, I am past looking at weeks ahead when the main players don't seem to have a scooby doo at 4 days out. 

Yep this is last nights GFS 18z at 168hrs in a easterly flow -

And today's 144- 

in a half hearted northerly . Rubbish 

Edited January 29, 2018 by ICE COLD

[johnholmes]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What's the bets on the met fax charts taking an age to update! 

ah, the conspiracy theory again!

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Edited January 29, 2018 by johnholmes

[Don]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Non sign of a scandi ridge on the ec46.  Stays chilly with the ridge out west for week 3.

Not a good update.  If this proves close to the mark it will be another pants winter for many........

[inghams85]

Interesting trend to build the Scandinavian High from a push West of the Russian high. All indicative of the first signs of Westerly momentum dropping........

As stated last week tomorrow's 12z to hone in on 8th 9th 10th onwards. Got my beady eye on this period still!

Edited January 29, 2018 by inghams85

[Jason M]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Is this the same Ec 46 that continually suggested scandi hieghts in the extended range through most of last winter.. ......

perhaps it might be worth rearranging the following .......salt of huge bucket with taken, be should.

Well, the salt won't be used for anything else that's for sure . 

 

 

[markw2680]

Still plenty of time for changes as it’s only Monday!! Although every time any easterly is possible it never seems to materialise, we are constantly just chasing for jack s##t. Just hope that one day we may get repaid for all the chasing as it’s just NOT FAIR ?

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

ah, the conspiracy theory again!

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Thank you John. For some reason they sometimes take an age to update on meteociel. 

[blizzard81]

13 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Interesting trend to build the Scandinavian High from a push West of the Russian high. All indicative of the first signs of Westerly momentum dropping........

As stated last week tomorrow's 12z to hone in on 8th 9th 10th onwards. Got my beady eye on this period still!

I think the 18z might be hearing you

[karlos1983]

Damn blast and bother 

[inghams85]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think the 18z might be hearing you

I don't think it's quite getting there but baby steps and the first signs of amplification. Everything slower West to East and small increases in amplification now

[Blizzardof82]

16 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Interesting trend to build the Scandinavian High from a push West of the Russian high. All indicative of the first signs of Westerly momentum dropping........

As stated last week tomorrow's 12z to hone in on 8th 9th 10th onwards. Got my beady eye on this period still!

I admire your consistency and hope you are right, you have been banging this drum for a fortnight so hats off it plays out that way.

[Blizzardof82]

Ian Fergusons tweets only reflect what the EC 32 is showing not what will happen.

[inghams85]

5 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

I admire your consistency and hope you are right, you have been banging this drum for a fortnight so hats off it plays out that way.

I hope so mate I think we all want some deep cold! This period will be near 192-198 hours come GFS18z tomorrow so keep an eye out around that time period 

Edited January 29, 2018 by inghams85

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Damn blast and bother 

If Ian is referring to the ecm46 I wouldn't worry too much. It's already nearly 24 hours out of date lol. Besides, using the word 'hopefully' implies to me that the gist of his tweet maybe more to do with his preference for the country not coming to a standstill. Wishful thinking on his part as 1.5cm brought this area to a standstill a couple of weeks ago!