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Model output discussion - mid January


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2 hours ago, jethro said:

In days of old,

When nights were cold,

And models weren't invented,

We might have hoped, we might have prayed,

But we didn't drive ourselves demented.

 

The MJO the QBO,

No wonders such as these,

All we had back then my dears,

Was Uncle Bert's dodgy knees.

 

He'd hobble along with back bent low,

Telling all who passed 'it's goin ta snow'

'They're aching bad' he'd say, 'eee I wish I were fitter',

'You mark me words ma lass, tis goin to be bitter'.

 

More often than not he was right,

A deep white carpet fell through the night,

We'd wake up to an eerie glow,

First words of the day...'Yippee, SNOW!'

 

Those days are gone, but not forgotten,

Few snowy days now, seems so rotten,

What will it take to make dreams come true?

A long fetch beast, a bolt from the blue?

 

A slumbering Sun?

A boiling hot strat?

A volcanic eruption?

Dear God please, give us all that.

 

When I was little, I'd be told,

'Yer won't like it so much when you're old'

Mummy dear, I'm afraid it fell on deaf ears,

I'm as bad as I was, so I'm here with the seers,

 

I look at the charts with their purple and blue,

It's all double dutch, I'm reliant on you,

I've read and I've studied, I've tried and I've tried,

Still makes no sense, my brain must be fried

 

I understand there's lows and there's highs

And a beast from the east makes white stuff fall from the skies

But down here in the soggy south west

I fear it will mean just slush at best

 

I'm not giving up on those dreams from before,

When I lived further North, instead of south of the M4,

It must still be possible to get a battleground,

Hopes of it happening are still around

 

Down here we must settle for the dribs and the drabs,

Seems snow is still out there, it's up for grabs,

What must we do to get it to come here?

Or do we just get to drown our sorrows with beer?

 

The easterly beast that all winter's been bumbling,

Will it get it together or carry on rumbling?

How hard can it be to waft this way?

All together now, let us pray.

 

There'd be whoops of delight and cries full of cheer

If we wake up one morning and find that it's here

Open the curtains, let out a shout,

'See, I told you that's what the models were on about'

 

Oh how I hope those dreams come true,

But as I said, I'm reliant on you,

Please be honest, please don't bicker,

It makes reading these pages so much quicker.

 

So finally before I go,

To dream of the day we do get snow,

To Paul and the Mods, be kind, please,

Just lightening the mood of the FI tease.

Excellent!!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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Just feel that slowly and rather awkwardly the models seem to be wanting to provide us with an easterly by or before mid February. If this winter's failed easterly's hadn't happened, I think everyone would feel more upbeat about the outlook for February, as there seems a good chance that the final third of winter may be the coldest.  Will we finally get that easterly, well I think we are certainly in with a good fighting chance !

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ooh look - 1050 mb high west of the uk.  Of course !

Ooh when's that for? I'm looking forward to some drier weather here in southwest Wales after all this rain we've had recently for these saturated fields to dry out a bit and river levels to fall.  :good:

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Stronger northern arm to the jet on the 12z and coupled with the big high pressure moving in from the west looks like most of the best uppers to our east is never advected westwards. Not sure what's best 6z or 12z? Similar signal though.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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3 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Ooh when's that for? I'm looking forward to some drier weather here in southwest Wales after all this rain we've had recently for these saturated fields to dry out a bit and river levels to fall.  :good:

We're under high pressure now you wouldn't think it I know with this constant drizzle & mist this weekend but its currently about 1035mb in Swansea so pretty strong  :wallbash:

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

That’s the link I have... page just won’t load :wallbash: perhaps someone can post them if updated today yet?

Edited by karlos1983
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12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The stark 'reality' (which is good)

Is that the gfs picks up the cold transfer, and holds it right out to last frames..

Its indeed a recurring theme...and with the immense/deep cold @surrounding quarters its a likely scenario imo!

Tbf-i think for once its a case of how do we fail??! Rather than the opposite.

Again febuary looks the prime month for uk winter-proper...and the chance remains of hp cell helping the blend even moreso...as we gain on modeling!!!

No point as we stand on in depth analysis, as we are yet to hit that point.

Overal extremely promising synoptics.

gfs-1-384.png

Looks great for the Czech Republic, Germany and Poland ?

Edited by CK1981
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Thats a really good mean too for cold, what ever happens with regards to the easterly, it seems that February will be a lot colder, may end up cold and dry though, we shall see.

gens-21-0-192.png

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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Control run looking good, better than the op anyway.:D:cold:

gens-0-1-192.png

gens-0-0-192.png

Indeed so, it has us in an easterly flow by 180hrs.  There are some stonking ensembles at 192 showing up as well, in fact a significant number I would say!

 gensnh-7-1-192.png gensnh-11-1-192.png gensnh-12-1-192.png gensnh-16-1-192.png gensnh-18-1-192.png gensnh-20-1-192.png gfsnh-0-192.png

Edited by Ice Day
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The only place i've seen any consistency in the Gfs over the last couple of days is in the 18's, the rest have been as others have said, all over the place.

I know they have been very cold runs, but a usual watered down version would still bring the goods, i do like it when Gfs shows really deep uppers early on, it gives a bit of play.

Anyway, i shall have a keen eye on tonights 18z and hope they have some resemblence to the last couple.

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10 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Indeed so, it has us in an easterly flow by 180hrs.  There are some stonking ensembles at 192 showing up as well, in fact a significant number I would say!

 

Well well GEFS are decent drawing nearer too. :) 

Edited by Daniel*
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