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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

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ECM clusters now show 2 to 1 in favour of some sort of E block between D11 and D15. That's the best odds they've come up with yet. However, must be balanced with the fact that some recent runs did not develop east heights for that timeframe at all.

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Aaah the deep FI easterly pattern hinted at in deep fi. Anyway ignoring that we do seem to heading back too cooler conditions after the mild weekend with one more day to come.

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27 minutes ago, shaky said:

Which one would benefit us?trough or ridge?

North = trough 

Midlands = either 

South = ridge 

South of M4 = not applicable 

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3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

North = trough 

Midlands = either 

South = ridge 

South of M4 = not applicable 

Id prefer ridge - just needs to be reasonably far enough North, otherwise you either get wishboned or a slushfest, people forget with a scandi high that even if it isn't a powerful enough Easterly to get convection all the way to the West initially, you can hope for a trough to move east to W (1991) or then you've still got the battleground to follow (1994)

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14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I suppose if an easterly is chased for long enough eventually one will appear..

In the period I try to peer into, 6-15 days there is nothing to me that suggests it happening.

Beyond that is outside my understanding.

Colder for sure from Wednesday with the upper flow from north of west for much of the following 2 weeks. Milder intrusions as lows move roughly west to east but overall below normal for pretty much all areas averaged out over the 2 week period. With low heights predicted N and NE and higher values west then a spell of unsettled and coldish weather is very much the favourite. Thursday into the weekend and some are going to see snow, as usual the hillier parts doing better than low ground. Worth popping into the 72 hour area this week I reckon!

The setup is clearly there within 6-15d - ensemble means now have hp over scandi in ext period.

A large degree of uncertainty exists in the forecast through this part of February, but it looks increasingly likely that settled and largely dry weather will dominate, at least to start with. Temperatures will be rather cold with widespread frosts and a chance of snow showers, especially in the east. During the latter stages of February we may some milder spells of weather, which will also deliver cloud and rain. These are likely to be interspersed with colder, brighter and drier conditions.

 

Just to be clear, looking myself in the mirror and being truthful, on the probability balance, it will end up all collapsing again so ultimately you will be right with your forecast, howver, there are some pointers to an Easterly so to say there is none is wrong IMO.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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No sign of Spring according to the CFS model lol it suggests an average February this year. 

SW UK including S Wales and S Ireland could turn slightly colder than average by March perhaps finally with some snow given that the sea temps will be at their seasonal coldest?  then an average April followed by a cooler May & June. Well I certainly wouldn't put it past that happening anyway :D 

image.png

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Edited by Draig Goch

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At last -  cross model agreement at day 10 between ecm and gfs 

64AFDDF8-00C3-4CC8-A977-B59F7FE78D80.thumb.jpeg.6403792e53baf4a9a87c66ebf691ce90.jpeg 356F6FE9-95E7-4373-842E-942864A66B8D.thumb.jpeg.968b00b80e25813fde36abb1219050da.jpeg

 

 

 

 

Check the date though ......

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1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

doubting_thomas_snow1.jpg.5aef9375972f527dc49762a87e8cd507.thumb.jpg.a72d37b5275e6cf97da1ea355e92b0b4.jpg

May 2018 to be dominated by E'lys, 6 week period approx late Apr to early June

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9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

May 2018 to be dominated by E'lys, 6 week period approx late Apr to early June

Well in May that would bring in some reasonable warmth especially in the west, it would much be cooler on the east coast though with a cold breeze off the North Sea 

Edited by Draig Goch

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

 

just to be clear I said there is nothing I see not what the Met O see

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

just to be clear I said there is nothing I see not what the Met O see

and I will as usual apologise if I am wrong.

Believe it or not I would like to have to do this.

A repeat of Nov/Dec 2010 would be magic!

 

 

 

 

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Don’t think the gfs has a clue looking at this run,looks all over the place,with loops of high pressure forming :gathering:Good luck if you think it’s going to verify as shown by the gfs :gathering:

Edited by SLEETY

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Don’t think the gfs has a clue looking at this run,looks all over the place.Good luck if you think it’s going to verify as shown by the gfs :gathering:

The lows are weaker, the block is stronger, it's just doing what GFS does when it needs to move towards a less mobile scenario.

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What a mess!

The GFS is likely to get there eventually but its all rather complicated.

And now we're back to divergences upstream as early as T96hrs between it and the UKMO although they somehow converge later at T144hrs although the UKMO has a much deeper low.

 

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I’m hoping this will eventually help our cause, if it comes off as shown 

242E0BE7-3161-4C32-9F22-3D1012AE5396.jpeg

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by 192 we're in a slack easterly-

gfsnh-0-192-2.thumb.png.930478622d3acb545949cd349d1a87a3.png

can the block strengthen and hold?...

the suspense....

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It's a wobbly old evolution but there's likely to be some interest in FI with this run.  198 and heights pushing up well north of the UK

gfsnh-0-198.png?12 gfsnh-1-198.png?12

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4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

by 192 we're in a slack easterly-

gfsnh-0-192-2.thumb.png.930478622d3acb545949cd349d1a87a3.png

can the block strengthen and hold?...

the suspense....

Looks a better position from which to build a Scandi High than the 06Z did. Might awaken the beast by T264

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Looks a better position from which to build a Scandi High than the 06Z did. Might awaken the beast by T264

looks like its going to struggle this time but if we keep seeing slow improvements like this... :wink:

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Sustaining any cold even if the UK gets the easterly won't happen unless you get a retrogression signal.

The rounded PV blob to the north will eventually sink the ridge , so that's an issue although confidence in any solution is low given the chopping and changing between outputs.

 

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