Model output discussion - mid January

[Snowman.]

GEFS may have started sorting out its pacing issues with MJO lag time as the back end of the 0z suite has a near mean continental flow and isn't rushing in beasterlies.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

GEFS may have started sorting out its pacing issues with MJO lag time as the back end of the 0z suite has a near mean continental flow and isn't rushing in beasterlies.

Looking through the members shows a bit of a mess though low heights to our south and southeast a welcome strong signal 

[Ice Day]

Pretty huge differences between GFS and ECM at just 114 (120 ECM) on our side of the pond, with the GFS showing a deep low to the north of Scotland that the ECM doesn't have.  FI from 72 at the moment!?

GFS  ECM 

 

 

[SMU]

The ECM T2Ms & wind direction clusters does show some support for the all elusive Easterly- infact the control - often the joker in the pack goes very cold under snow cover & slack air

[SMU]

& just for consistency ( or inconsistency) as the case may be

back to back GFS runs at just 156 for next sat

total polar opposites

[Ice Day]

GFS is showing easterly potential at 186 and has worked itself towards the ECM at the same time

GFS   ECM  

Huge cold pool available to the north east (and east)

Edited January 28, 2018 by Ice Day

[Bottled Snow]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

& just for consistency ( or inconsistency) as the case may be

back to back GFS runs at just 156 for next sat

total polar opposites

Yes big changes run to run

BTW 8% battery life Steve  is not going to last long enough for you to commentate on the 6z charts which will undoubtedly show freezing easterlies in the later stages..get the charger plug quick as we don't want to miss anything ??

Edited January 28, 2018 by Bottled Snow

[blizzard81]

I big improvement on the gfs 06z. However, I sense much weariness on this forum recently. I think many are suspicious of the better runs and to be honest I can't blame them. 

[blizzard81]

Such a struggle to get that all important Genoa low these days. 

[SLEETY]

Oh man,we seem to have been chasing this Easterly all winter .Really hope it starts showing in the more reliable timeframe soon,it’s only ever shown beyond t144 ,never a nearer timeframe.Think we are all going to give up this chase soon,gfs tries again but it soon goes away again.

[Bottled Snow]

14 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Such a struggle to get that all important Genoa low these days. 

close but no cigar on 6z...encouraging signs though and closer to more amplified ECM runs of late. Let' see what the ensembles show shortly to see if there is more support for ridging to northeast

BS 

[WalsallWeather123]

27 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I big improvement on the gfs 06z. However, I sense much weariness on this forum recently. I think many are suspicious of the better runs and to be honest I can't blame them. 

Looks terrible to me. As usual people getting excited prematurely. I wouldn't look beyond the 144 range. Awful consistency among models past that range.

[comet]

The 06z has really toned down the strat warming at the end of the run, I know at that range it is very inconsistent. The last several runs have shown the warming intensifying and then out comes a run with very little warming at all lol.

As far as the possible easterly developing in about 8 days time we really want to see future runs build on this is there is to be any chance of this coming off, otherwise we may have to wait until later in the month. imho i do think we will hit the jackpot next month fingers cross

Edited January 28, 2018 by comet

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

11 hours ago, snowbunting said:

To be honest, we have had so much snow up here I would happily settle for some sunny cold weather.. aka easterly.

Same with me for South Wales we've had so much rain recently the fields are waterlogged making some main roads turn into muddy rivers and there's been some flooding of properties 

[karlos1983]

Nice to see this from Ian. Posting because I fee it is relevant to the recent discussions and reactions to individual runs. Not that there is anything wrong with reacting to individual runs, but it hopefully brings a bit of balance, that’s all. 

Edited January 28, 2018 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice to see this from Ian. Posting because I fee it is relevant to the recent discussions and reactions to individual runs. Not that there is anything wrong with reacting to individual runs, but it hopefully brings a bit of balance, that’s all. 

I think what Ian says makes perfect sense: what with the GFS having been toying with the idea, for a few days now, I think it's safe to suggest that things might now be heading in the right direction...Obviously nothing nailed though, and - as per usual - more runs are needed!

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think what Ian says makes perfect sense: what with the GFS having been toying with the idea, for a few days now, I think it's safe to suggest that things might now be heading in the right direction...Obviously nothing nailed though, and - as per usual - more runs are needed!

I have one burning question though, has GloSea seen an easterly before? Will it’s lack of “knowledge” affect its performance in this setup? has  previous data of such setups been included it’s it supercomputerness  ?

Edited January 28, 2018 by karlos1983

[inghams85]

Week commencing 7th. Right on cue Ian!

[Decemberof2010]

Well I believe pert 18 will make most of us happy

 

[Chesil View]

Very interesting point made by fergie in that tweet which i hadn't fully taken on board before namely that given the rarity of easterly set ups in the uk winter. Ecm showing 25% of  easterly/northeasterly outcomes is in fact a very strong pointer.

[tight isobar]

6z london ens.

Certainly not without interest!

[tinybill]

all i say  after  72  hr  any  thing could happen!!!

[bluearmy]

Note that Exeter clearly see a slow moving pattern by week 2 Feb. Ian is suggesting that the uncertainty surrounds whether it’s trougy or ridgy 

the eps clusters generally support a Scandi ridge though

[shaky]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Note that Exeter clearly see a slow moving pattern by week 2 Feb. Ian is suggesting that the uncertainty surrounds whether it’s trougy or ridgy 

the eps clusters generally support a Scandi ridge though

Which one would benefit us?trough or ridge?

[Ice Day]

45 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Very interesting point made by fergie in that tweet which i hadn't fully taken on board before namely that given the rarity of easterly set ups in the uk winter. Ecm showing 25% of  easterly/northeasterly outcomes is in fact a very strong pointer.

Absolutely spot on.  25% from this range is probably at the top end of what we could hope for.  Of course it doesn't mean it will happen, but we're in the game at least.