Model output discussion - mid January

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Close but no cigar on the GFS 12z with the Siberian high only affecting east of Scandi regions

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Thank goodness Day 15 charts never materialise:

I would take that right now - as Ive posted above - that would surely give a great chance of an SSW within 1 week from then.

[Timmytour]

38 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I hope there aren't too many avalanches in the Alps:

 

Imagine there could be floods in lower lying villages with a pretty rapid thaw of loads of snow

[ACCOUNT DELETED]

GFS 12z much less stormy in the south but much windier in the north. Low pressure and gales are generally tracking further north giving the south a break from the severe gales. Hints of a very strong area high pressure building in the west by the end of January and into February bringing much drier & calmer conditions for many areas 

[Weather-history]

32 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Lol  ive just seen that   there is know way that is right   Heavy snow  for hours on end.  Nah

Its not full-proof but until Euro 4 comes into range and it starts to show some interest then I will take note. 

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Thank goodness Day 15 charts never materialise:

That is not a bad chat actually...

[tight isobar]

Todays 6z london ens.

Await compare for gfs 12z..

Expect a notable colder set from 24 onwards!(12z)

#await #compare

Edited January 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

After watching this winter evolve and seeing the telecon predictions, the MJO fail in late December, the charts with potential fail to verify etc etc, I’ve decided that the upstream pv locale and consequential jet won’t allow sustained amplification to occur in a position to bring deep cold as far west as the uk via a Scandi ridge. if (and it’s feasible) the vortex drifts away from north eastern Canada, I think the most likely place for amplification will be the North Atlantic. I think the search for a Scandi ridge is destined to fail. the gfs op in it’s latter stages plays with a scenario which I think could well play out whereby we have a MLB close to the uk which retrogresses to meet an amplification off the ESB. This run ultimately fails but it’s an evolution that I believe more likely to occur with a MLB than a Scandi ridge. 

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

After watching this winter evolve and seeing the telecon predictions, the MJO fail in late December, the charts with potential fail to verify etc etc, I’ve decided that the upstream pv locale and consequential jet won’t allow sustained amplification to occur in a position to bring deep cold as far west as the uk via a Scandi ridge. if (and it’s feasible) the vortex drifts away from north eastern Canada, I think the most likely place for amplification will be the North Atlantic. I think the search for a Scandi ridge is destined to fail. the gfs op in it’s latter stages plays with a scenario which I think could well play out whereby we have a MLB close to the uk which retrogresses to meet an amplification off the ESB. This run ultimately fails but it’s an evolution that I believe more likely to occur with a MLB than a Scandi ridge. 

'Yeah' i hear you.

And thats as feasible as anything flagging..

And there are hints of an; MLB-atlantic ridge formation coming into play.

However with the russian peninsula warm a link of any developing waa (atlantic) is although minimal...a possible route!??,

Edit;.

There is plenty afoot..and a complete model flip is on the table late jan.

Edited January 18, 2018 by tight isobar

[N/A]

8 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

GFS 12z much less stormy in the south but much windier in the north. Low pressure and gales are generally tracking further north giving the south a break from the severe gales. Hints of a very strong area high pressure building in the west by the end of January and into February bringing much drier & calmer conditions for many areas 

Can't upload charts but it looks much milder for a time next week too with highs of 11-13C in South Wales & Southern England, high single figures elsewhere. 

[shaky]

28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Its not full-proof but until Euro 4 comes into range and it starts to show some interest then I will take note. 

Just checked the temperature map and it has widespread temperatures of 0 and -2 at midday sunday!the only thing i could think is that there is a south east flow bumping into that band of precipitation and a really slack flow before hand across england keeping surface cold!!

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just checked the temperature map and it has widespread temperatures of 0 and -2 at midday sunday!the only thing i could think is that there is a south east flow bumping into that band of precipitation and a really slack flow before hand across england keeping surface cold!!

One of two possibilities!!!

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

One of two possibilities!!!

Whats the other one mate?

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just checked the temperature map and it has widespread temperatures of 0 and -2 at midday sunday!the only thing i could think is that there is a south east flow bumping into that band of precipitation and a really slack flow before hand across england keeping surface cold!!

The uppers still wouldn't support it though, there is no way that the snow wouldn't melt on its way down, if that run verified then it would be freezing rain.

[Summer Sun]

41 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Todays 6z london ens.

Await compare for gfs 12z..

Expect a notable colder set from 24 onwards!(12z)

#await #compare

Here's the 12z

[Met4Cast]

Well.. the Aperge is interested in countrywide snowfall on Sunday

Much more extensive than other models it has to be said, so largely on it's own for now.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Danny*

[feb1991blizzard]

NMM 0.05 model suggests freezing rain / snow mix on sunday.

[shaky]

9 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Well.. the Aperge is interested in countrywide snowfall on Sunday

Much more extensive than other models it has to be said, so largely on it's own for now.

Dont forget ecm had same position of snow on yesterdays 12z run!!in a line liverpool to london!!

[Singularity]

If the AAM/MJO combination is successful it will shove the polar vortex about, not leave it to dictate proceedings.

In the GFS and UKMO 12z runs you really can see the MJO P5 / GWO P4 influences trying to turn the tables via height rises increasingly close to the NE, but the Nina forcing keeping the Azores High from gaining enough latitude to link arms in a way that brings us an easterly flow.

It is an almighty battle which may leave us balmy and wettest in the north, chilly and dry for the majority (maybe cold if inversions set up), or cold with snow chances. Oh what fun... 

[Deep Snow please]

More like late September than late January next week:

 

Not pleasant at all; a fairly set in pattern as well by the looks of it. Doesn't break down until Friday

 

[shaky]

19 minutes ago, shaky said:

Dont forget ecm had same position of snow on yesterdays 12z run!!in a line liverpool to london!!

And the 72 hour chart has not changed to yesterdays 96 hour chart so i assume it along the same line!!beard man will tell us more am sure!!

[jvenge]

That ECM run seemed to spew out fairly quickly? Usually another 30 mins before its finished.

[SylvainTV]

3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

That ECM run seemed to spew out fairly quickly? Usually another 30 mins before its finished.

Yes weird I don't understand. The files just appeared out of nowhere with even a future date.. The data seems to be correct though. It doesn't look like today 00Z or yesterday 12Z.

[feb1991blizzard]

A bit better than the 0z but nothing special.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ay, very quick EC, never known it out before 7, but sadly my favourite part is last bit Deep FI