Model output discussion - mid January

[Ice Day]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure this will be an absolute belter but I'm very happy with it, its on a par with ECM and it arrests the slide of downgrades on GFS recent op / ens runs, more important though I would like to se a good GEFS suite, ive already been through the D15 eps runs, not sure how the graph will turn out overall but should be more frigid runs, as there is some -11 and -12c 's over London at the time so should mean some max's below freezing although not sure whether the models take into account the urban warming effect as it could be why the London max temps never seem to correlate well with the uppers.

Yes, this is hopefully a turning point and tomorrow will be a day of upgrades?  Whilst I don't think this run will quite deliver, it has moved towards the ECM's output and look how close the frigid cold is at 222

[igloo]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs  and ecm at 192,very similar!

the 18z is miles better than the 12z suit.

there is some consistancy at last

-8's incoming in from the east/northeast at 210

Forget the east  have a better look to our west if that lump PV lands on top of us it would be snow magedan 

[bluearmy]

Just now, igloo said:

Forget the east  have a better look to our west if that lump PV lands on top of us it would be snow magedan 

How could that happen ?

[johnholmes]

Good to see so many chasing post 240h charts. Seriously why, other than I assume you enjoy seeing one P that shows cold out of all the others that do not, ott I know but you get my drift.

The 6-10 anomalies, 2 out of 3 actually suggest a coldish spell from about day 4-5 for perhaps 5-6 days. Bit unsettled to start but then fairly settled? On the windy side near any surface lows in the unsettled period as well. I see no sign in the 14 day period of any signal for anything from other than a north of west or possibly northerly, so no N of E or E?

links

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The NAEFS version at 240h also similar 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

 

[Allseasons-Si]

It's a step in the right direction in terms of 850's

18z 234 v 12z 240

we just need the heights to push that little further north as to stop the main chunk of pv barreling through but all academic in the later stages but a better run.

[igloo]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

How could that happen ?

Not sure but the GFS is showing it crazy charts the last few days from it you have to admit

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, igloo said:

Forget the east  have a better look to our west if that lump PV lands on top of us it would be snow magedan 

Sorry igloo,that chunk would just get modified drematicly by the long warmish sea track that will kill the cold uppers,give me an easterly anyday as the track across the north sea is minimal plus with a continetal feed of dryer air is much better IMO.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Good to see so many chasing post 240h charts. Seriously why, other than I assume you enjoy seeing one P that shows cold out of all the others that do not, ott I know but you get my drift.

The 6-10 anomalies, 2 out of 3 actually suggest a coldish spell fromsi about day 4-5 for perhaps 5-6 days. Bit unsettled to start but then fairly settled? On the windy side near any surface lows in the unsettled period as well. I see no sign in the 14 day period of any gnal for anything from other than a north of west or possibly northerly, so no N of E or E?

linkshttp.php

 

 

 

You must admit yesterday when  half a GEFS suite probably more were promising it looked a possibility, that has subsided now I concede, but surely ypu must see the possibility by mid feb with all that WAA going into the pole from both sides.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018012718&var=HGT&lev=10mb&hour=384

[igloo]

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry igloo,that chunk would just get modified drematicly by the long warmish sea track that will kill the cold uppers,give me an easterly anyday as the track across the north sea is minimal plus with a continetal feed of dryer air is much better IMO.

Well we dont all stay in the south of the uk i have done very well from fairly similar setups as this all season and have snow still lying from november it would suit me and a few million just fine i think

Edited January 27, 2018 by igloo

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Good to see so many chasing post 240h charts. Seriously why, other than I assume you enjoy seeing one P that shows cold out of all the others that do not, ott I know but you get my drift.

The 6-10 anomalies, 2 out of 3 actually suggest a coldish spell from about day 4-5 for perhaps 5-6 days. Bit unsettled to start but then fairly settled? On the windy side near any surface lows in the unsettled period as well. I see no sign in the 14 day period of any signal for anything from other than a north of west or possibly northerly, so no N of E or E?

links

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The NAEFS version at 240h also similar 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

 

You are quite right there John

we all get too carried away in la la land(including me) looking for some consistancy,and to be quite frank,there isn't any and never will be

all part of the fun this model malarky

[ICE COLD]

9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Good to see so many chasing post 240h charts. Seriously why, other than I assume you enjoy seeing one P that shows cold out of all the others that do not, ott I know but you get my drift.

The 6-10 anomalies, 2 out of 3 actually suggest a coldish spell from about day 4-5 for perhaps 5-6 days. Bit unsettled to start but then fairly settled? On the windy side near any surface lows in the unsettled period as well. I see no sign in the 14 day period of any signal for anything from other than a north of west or possibly northerly, so no N of E or E?

links

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The NAEFS version at 240h also similar 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

 

Because everyone loves to chase cold snowy charts at 240hrs ?. To  be fair John the reason the most of us are chasing them is because in the next 5 to 7 days it standard boring weather . What is there to discuss ?? We all want proper winter weather for once . Like tonight's ECM . 

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Good to see so many chasing post 240h charts. Seriously why, other than I assume you enjoy seeing one P that shows cold out of all the others that do not, ott I know but you get my drift.

The 6-10 anomalies, 2 out of 3 actually suggest a coldish spell from about day 4-5 for perhaps 5-6 days. Bit unsettled to start but then fairly settled? On the windy side near any surface lows in the unsettled period as well. I see no sign in the 14 day period of any signal for anything from other than a north of west or possibly northerly, so no N of E or E?

links

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The NAEFS version at 240h also similar 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

 

And what about glossea seeing the strong signal for a scandi high in early to mid Feb?

[Snowman.]

25 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Good to see so many chasing post 240h charts. Seriously why, other than I assume you enjoy seeing one P that shows cold out of all the others that do not, ott I know but you get my drift.

The 6-10 anomalies, 2 out of 3 actually suggest a coldish spell from about day 4-5 for perhaps 5-6 days. Bit unsettled to start but then fairly settled? On the windy side near any surface lows in the unsettled period as well. I see no sign in the 14 day period of any signal for anything from other than a north of west or possibly northerly, so no N of E or E?

links

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

The NAEFS version at 240h also similar 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

 

Because chasing westerlies is boring. We don't come here to be sensible and conservative we come here because we want a little fun and drama while chasing Scandinavian heights.

Also there is a lot pointing towards height rises NE, Glosea and ECM monthly are aligned for easterly flow.

Edited January 27, 2018 by SN0WM4N

[snowbunting]

Cold from the continent or cold from the Canadian Vortex? Both ECM and GFS singing from same hymm sheet.

Edited January 27, 2018 by snowbunting

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowbunting said:

Cold from the continent or cold from the Canadian Vortex?

Yes - when you see the -8c isotherm in from the west like it does on that run, that's when I wouldn't turn my nose up, the -6c recently gave me a slushfest with admittedly a few dustings and inchers but then in the day it would turn to rain.

[snowbunting]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - when you see the -8c isotherm in from the west like it does on that run, that's when I wouldn't turn my nose up, the -6c recently gave me a slushfest with admittedly a few dustings and inchers but then in the day it would turn to rain.

We are heading into the coldest part of winter and with models like that it is pretty much knife edge stuff... cold from west or cold from east... certainly no mild rubbish. 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, snowbunting said:

We are heading into the coldest part of winter and with models like that it is pretty much knife edge stuff... cold from west or cold from east... certainly no mild rubbish. 

Not to put a dampner on it but the only problem is, they tend to be watered down by the time T0 arrives, where as Easterlies tend to be totally off the menu by the time T0 arrives.

[blizzard81]

Although I am a natural pessimist, even I am getting weary of the negative comments on here today. It is getting ever more likely that something is afoot and we should all watch this space. 

[Cleeve Hill]

Temp forecasts for Oslo, Stockholm, Moscow & Copenhagen all heading colder towards end of next week, suggesting a pressure rises in that area. 

[Jason M]

Whilst I fully expect this latest ECM easterly to go the same way as all the others come the morning, I am a bit surprised to note that there is some support across the GEFS at 192. 

 

 

[MildCarlilse]

13 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Because everyone loves to chase cold snowy charts at 240hrs ?. To  be fair John the reason the most of us are chasing them is because in the next 5 to 7 days it standard boring weather . What is there to discuss ?? We all want proper winter weather for once . Like tonight's ECM . 

Many of us in Scotland have already had proper winter weather this season so far and not  just once my friend.As many down south chase this easterly as the great deliverer of snow,we in Scotland have done very well from the new winter friend,the northwesterly.An easterly is only as good as it’s accompanied allies...temperature,temperature and temperature.If these are low (pick one) then the results will follow.

[nick sussex]

This easterly search is beginning to remind me of that tv series Lost!

The writers ran out of ideas and the audience figures fell as what people expected to be the end just continued on as Hollywood producers thought heres a great cash cow.

Although in this case we're the audience and are getting fed up now!

Yes we all know easterlies don't verify that often but really we're not asking to go to the Moon.

Anwyay after that mini tirade the GFS 18hrs run is a sort of hybrid between what it was doing on its 12hrs, it still splits those lows upstream rather than keeping the single feature like the ECM but then manages to keep audience figures up by disrupting some energy se with that shortwave and hey presto we sort of get an easterly tease but its funny the amount of times easterly teases come with a battle against a raging PV.

What we need to see is a westwards correction and more sharpness upstream. Which may happen but really we've sat through too many Losts and somewhat desperate plot twists and we want an end to this series!

My post probably would have been more tiradish! not sure of that's a proper word if we didn't have at least the MJO moving in the right direction.

This particular feature seems to have become public enemy number one for some but really we need that on side to at least give a chance of something more sustained and not the buffet scraps of most of the winter.

Theres still time for crunchy snow and non marginal dew points, please models just get on with it!

[Allseasons-Si]

Whilst the op and control look the same out to 192 most of the ens look dreadfull

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

so i hope the op and control have got this right

but still too far out to decifer from that lot,infact looking out to 144 there is divergance in the suit,so i don't know why i bothered with the 192's lol

as always,much to be resolved.

[snowbunting]

We shall see.. I generally only post on here when I feel their is a bite at the cherry.  I think the ensembles are giving us some clues here with a number of the individual runs being significantly cold. I think the fact that the models cant grasp whats likely to hapoen after the 2nd of feb indicates that it really is a battlefield developing between East and West.

[igloo]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not to put a dampner on it but the only problem is, they tend to be watered down by the time T0 arrives, where as Easterlies tend to be totally off the menu by the time T0 arrives.

Well the west is best if you live in western scotland northern ireland or cumbria as easterlys deliver nothing in those areas but i do no the cold gets modifayed the further south it goes which sadly has been the case all season so far for the southern half of the uk