Jump to content

Model output discussion - mid January


Message added by Paul

Before posting in to the model discussion, please read our guide to posting in the model threads.

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

Posted Images

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It barely gets the -6c isotherm into Britain and likely wont do much better throughout the whole run.

Ignorance prevails!!!

@freezer run in the situ of depth of n-hem cold, develop..

Not uk..

As that would be ignorant for beleive!!

Its surge placement and charge..going forwards...thats my point!!!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Still disagreements upstream with the GFS splitting the lows and the ECM/UKMO keeping the single low which then phases with the next one upstream over Canada.

I think we'd prefer the Euros here because in the shorter term their evolution has a better chance of getting something more interesting to develop.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

OMG back to chasing trigger shortwaves! Wheres the brandy!

The ECM somehow manages to get that shortwave se, we need more sharpness upstream and a westwards correction to increase the chance of this happening.

  • Like 2
  • Haha 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Oh damn... typically as the GEFS start turning flatter the ECM op throws a spanner in, its as if they so it purposely 

IMG_0044.GIF

The wrap is of 'near' perfection..

and cold pooling...and indeed evolution STILL, underplayed...but the shelf is being dusted off now!!!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Likely see more of this 'type' evolution..

As mjo get grip..

And russian warm holds the pattern with tighter vigor!!..

And pac punching bullys the show..b4 momentum gives.....

And uk cold opens...

ECH1-216.gif

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites

A lot better than I thought and some serious cold pooling likely to build at some point very close to UK in next 2 weeks, but the Northern arm and PV just too strong so far - this could be about to turn into an almighty all or nothing situation, by where it will either fail, or it will go down with 87 and 91 as one of the great all time UK snow events.

  • Like 6
  • Haha 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well it’s not perfect but -10c widespread into England ...

EB23E037-9EF0-4E87-9600-8A31656354AF.thumb.png.73906ab4ee3d6303ad4ac7a3746358b9.png

@Steve with respect and I mean it, the forcing from the Eastern see board is huge due to massive temperature gradient that in another few days time all of these beauties will be blown away. So I would suggest to stick to the reliable until all big 3 agree somewhat ? 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

OMG ?. Just thought are have a quick look at the ecm it will probley be S**t . And I nearly choked on my chicken wing ?. Very good run after a couple of not so good runs from GFS . -12 850s and -15 into the North Sea . 

IMG_1113.PNG

IMG_1114.PNG

IMG_1115.PNG

IMG_1116.PNG

IMG_1117.PNG

IMG_1118.PNG

IMG_1119.PNG

IMG_1120.PNG

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Well we certainly have time for a big freeze as early February can still deliver deep cold. Time is ticking though so for the proper stuff it needs to come together this week.

Hope you get the beast Steve, for sheer heart alone you darn well deserve it!!

Edited by January Snowstorm
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS 12z was not all that far away from doing what the ECM 12z has done - it just takes enough of a lull in polar westerlies in response to the P4 GWO ahead of the next kick that looks linked to stratospheric vortex movements (but only briefly as it keeps on moving beyond Greenland) and perhaps some lagged MJO 5 effect.

The resultant Scandinavian highs tend to be elongated in shape with the jet riding over the top but a trough to the south preventing a sink. Needing good behaviour from both the trough disruption and subsequent trough placement does make these among the trickiest Scandinavian highs to achieve bit their elongated shape makes them the best to move deep cold quickly across to the UK.

So it’s a high stakes game although not quite as much as usual given that should the ridge be sunk, the MJO expectations increase the odds jet the resultant Euro ridge doesn’t stick around for long.

Of course it’s too soon to know if we’ll even be playing the game in the first place. Just something to keep a eye on for now. 

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Likely see more of this 'type' evolution..

As mjo get grip..

And russian warm holds the pattern with tighter vigor!!..

And pac punching bullys the show..b4 momentum gives.....

And uk cold opens...

ECH1-216.gif

RIP- HARRY-GEORGE-JOSH..

HOW TRAGIC!?..

MY DAUGHTERS PALS??

???

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 2
  • Confused 2
  • Sad 19
Link to post
Share on other sites

On the face of it the ECM doesn't look too crash hot, although theres a ridge it looks like its too far East, I would wager though that there will be some really frigid runs and the D15 charts will look interesting.

EDH1-240_wkh1.GIF

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Draig Goch said:

Hahaha you couldn't make it up, ECM shows a tiny little finger of mild air stretching across SW England & SW Wales to spoil the party  :doh:elsewhere it stays colder 

 

image.jpeg

Not the middle finger by any chance? :rofl:

Edited by Dafydd Tomos
  • Haha 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...