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Model output discussion - mid January


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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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The GEFS manages (somehow) to produce a more bonkers / crazier / off-the-scale MJO forecast than yesterday... !

NCPE_phase_21m_full.thumb.gif.6e24531aebd4b238d9d16d6d5ebdf5c2.gif

ECM pretty much as it was and less amplified than GEFS (very nice still)...

ECMF_phase_51m_full.thumb.gif.8852e1eee4b0d3838317e6589bd148f7.gif

Edited by s4lancia
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4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

The GEFS manages (somehow) to produce a more bonkers / crazier / off-the-scale MJO forecast than yesterday... !

NCPE_phase_21m_full.thumb.gif.6e24531aebd4b238d9d16d6d5ebdf5c2.gif

ECM pretty much as it was and less amplified than GEFS (very nice still)...

ECMF_phase_51m_full.thumb.gif.8852e1eee4b0d3838317e6589bd148f7.gif

The light grey area (is that 2 standard deviations from the mean?) is not touching the circle of death either which means phae 7 should hopefully be very likely to come off.

Edited by Snowy L
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GFS 12z looks real mixed next week of mild & cold air. However for SW UK it doesn't look too cold during the days here in Porthcawl, South Wales for example temperatures between 7-11C are expected next week but there will be some cold nights especially under any clear skies.

Unfortunately it also looks much wetter compared to the 6z which isn't good news for the areas affected by flooding or for the swollen rivers. Is this a trend to losing the influence of the high that was forecasted in the south for a few days next week on previous runs because despite high pressure it looks to be yet another wet & miserable weekend  :wallbash:

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16 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

The light grey area (is that 2 standard deviations from the mean?) is not touching the circle of death either which means phae 7 should hopefully be very likely to come off.

little sign (currently) that we will manage to get to phase 8 though (which many have cautioned about)

Edited by bluearmy
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15 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

The light grey area (is that 2 standard deviations from the mean?) is not touching the circle of death either which means phae 7 should hopefully be very likely to come off.

The light gray shading reflects 90% of the ens members within that area. Dark grey is 50%

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

little sign (currently) that we will manage to get to phase 8 though (which many have cautioned about)

ECM definitely looks more interested compared to GEFS which goes off the scale high amplitude P7! 

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21 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

GFS 12z looks real mixed next week of mild & cold air. However for SW UK it doesn't look too cold during the days here in Porthcawl, South Wales for example temperatures between 7-11C are expected next week but there will be some cold nights especially under any clear skies.

Unfortunately it also looks much wetter compared to the 6z which isn't good news for the areas affected by flooding or for the swollen rivers. Is this a trend to losing the influence of the high that was forecasted in the south for a few days next week on previous runs because despite high pressure it looks to be yet another wet & miserable weekend  :wallbash:

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That high pressure is still there across the south but nevertheless a wet Saturday is likely, GFS suggests a dry Sunday but BBC weather forecasts light rain & fog, both show wet weather for Wales on Monday but drier in southern England and after a dry start to Tuesday, yet more wind & rain arrives although perhaps staying dry during daylight hours. Not exactly what you'd expect from a fairly strong area of high pressure but it's happened quite a few times since last October and when the pressure starts to fall, the weather improves again lol  

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Edited by Dafydd Tomos
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5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM definitely looks more interested compared to GEFS which goes off the scale high amplitude P7! 

ec tended to underdo the amplitude thus far this winter.  I would be concerned that the signal could fail to get past phase 7 until I see the diagram showing some appetite to take members there. 

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Did someone say Beasterly? I see there is some good support in the offering for a decent freeze in Feb, just wondered what actually is being offered? Are we looking at anything like Feb 1991? Or Feb 2009?

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4 hours ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.79793174bb6c8729456dce3f4df582a0.png

There is something a "foot" me thinks......snow I hope

Not very scientific I know, but after many years of model watching I always take note when the ECM Deblit ensemble mean begins to hover around 0c. More often than not this is a precursor to a colder spell for the U.K.

This, along with GFS ens and the tweets from Ian regarding GLOSEA it looks a strong possibility of things setting up for a colder period into February.

Edited by chris55
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8 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Not very scientific I know, but after many years of model watching I always take note when the ECM Deblit ensemble mean begins to hover around 0c. More often than not this is a precursor to a colder spell for the U.K.

This, along with GFS ens and the tweets from Ian regarding GLOSEA it looks a strong possibility of things setting up for a colder period into February.

The mean the dark brown reddy line isn’t hovering around 0C however there is a ~50% cluster that does. 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

little sign (currently) that we will manage to get to phase 8 though (which many have cautioned about)

Agreed but also little sign that it won't (necissarily) get to 8. Surely with that level of amplification in P7 it makes it more likely to make it to 8?

I don't have the link to historical MJO plots but I would've thought that most phase 8 appearances come from already amplified P7s, rather than low amplified P7s or re-emergances from the COD? I may be completely wrong on that however!

The JMA shows a faster passage through 7 but with tentative signs of amplification in towards 8

JMAN_phase_51m_full.thumb.gif.107eedd063b8300513476441daa123d8.gif

Before somebody jumps on me, yes I also know the MJO going into whatever phase guarantees us nothing! However experience tells me in February, plots like this definitely increase our chances.

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45 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

The light grey area (is that 2 standard deviations from the mean?) is not touching the circle of death either which means phae 7 should hopefully be very likely to come off.

2 standard deviations captures 95% of all observations around a mean.  Does, of course, depend on the mean being accurate in the first place.

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144_mslp500.png?cb=666 144_mslp850.png?cb=666


Broader view. Looks like the 12z UKMO wasn't as rogue as some might have thought given it's sudden difference to both the 12z GFS and preceding runs from pretty much all models.

144_mslp500_arc.png?cb=666

It does go to show how close we are to snatching something decent a fair few days sooner than otherwise looks possible. If the cold shot into N. America was to give rise to a single, intense LP system over E. Canada, we'd see the ridge enhanced rather than toppled - but this run still looks a fair way off that. Could try for enough downstream amplification anyway but that'd be impressive going.

There were some GEFS members showing this sort of outcome by 12z Thursday so the idea is not new, just developing.

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4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Good consistency between the UKMO and ECM at 144.  GFS looking somewhat different.  The set up looks good to me!

ECM ECH1-144.GIF?26-0 UKMO Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions GFS gfsnh-0-144.png?12

 

So that's that then, the ECM has come around? In other words - it's curtains!:cray::rofl:

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24 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Not exactly what you'd expect from a fairly strong area of high pressure but it's happened quite a few times since last October and when the pressure starts to fall, the weather improves again lol  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like this you mean? Sunshine returning under lower pressure lol, yep that could happen again after a few days of gloomy damp weather :)

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Look for another undercutter @216 - nice surface & upper cold @192 - traditional winter weather 

well not to be on this run but a better upgrade on ecm - need more southerly energy !

Edited by Steve Murr
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Up to 144 the ECM was looking a good run but fell a bit flat thereafter., but plenty of time for upgrades over the next few days.  So basically we want the the ECM/UKMO to win out to day 6, then GFS' version of events thereafter....not too much to ask for is it?

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