Model output discussion - mid January

[SMU]

Almost metronomic consistency from the GFS to 240 - even across the pole with the elongation of the -EPO ridge sees a nice slice of mr Kipling cold reaching NW Europe ....

[inghams85]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

2 hours ago, inghams85 said:

 

What you trying to tell me Steve? lol

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps clusters in the extended period down to 2. Preferred it when there were 6 ....................... (though the 66% cluster does build ridging in our vicinity it doesn’t look too exciting ).  I’m sure it provides for plenty of scandi height rises! 

Too much energy in the northern arm by any chance? 

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Another thing I have noticed over the last couple of gfs runs are the incredibly cold uppers over northern Canada in the extended. Minus 36 to 40. Just like the late 70's. 

I have never seen modelled such extreme cold uppers so extensively and so far S. And I’ve seen a lot.

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by Daniel*

[feb1991blizzard]

Don't like the ext EPS at all.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I have never seen modelled such extreme cold uppers so extensively. And I’ve seen a lot.

I remember looking back in the archives years ago and seeing minus 40 uppers. Although, like you say, those brutal cold uppers are very extensive indeed. 

[sawan]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I have never seen modelled such extreme cold uppers so extensively. And I’ve seen a lot.

What's the advice for the UK...........batten down the hatches?

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't like the ext EPS at all.

I think the ecm suite is seeing action beginning after week 2 ends so that’s not surprising. The hemispheric view of the 46 is encouraging - much more enlightening than the Icelandic vista. low heights and slp over Europe away from the broad  scandi ridging 

[Methuselah]

I thought it was cats that have nine lives, not squirrels:

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Don't like the ext EPS at all.

Mmm, the fact that you don't like them makes me not like them too. I don't have access to them but I guess the all too familiar strong northern arm is the culprit again? 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I have never seen modelled such extreme cold uppers so extensively. And I’ve seen a lot.

The extended eps have been noticeable for the depth of  the Canadian vortex - 480/490 dam at quite a range so not surprising to see such low uppers 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Mmm, the fact that you don't like them makes me not like them too. I don't have access to them but I guess the all too familiar strong northern arm is the culprit again? 

Yes.

Edited January 25, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Man With Beard]

EC control run cluster d14 has a smallish block to the east - this one perhaps too far from the UK - but I'd guess quite a few of the members would have it near enough.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Man With Beard

[blizzard81]

Well I have to say that I am getting that deja vu feeling here. Everything always 3 weeks away. When will we ever learn lol. 

[snowfish1]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Almost metronomic consistency from the GFS to 240 - even across the pole with the elongation of the -EPO ridge sees a nice slice of mr Kipling cold reaching NW Europe ....

Exceedingly good charts 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes.

What the 46 shows happening is the uppers Azores  ridge on the control cluster pulls way back with the jet splitting and the euro trough is fed from the nw whilst the northern  split builds up the Scandinavian high. What could go wrong? 

[inghams85]

February week 2 onwards. For me the EC46 has things right now on timing and encouraging to see Glosea on board. Everything this week has just been too progressive and led people up the garden path. An over reaction to tropical signals. Timeline was too soon within the normal lag effect. Come back this time next week is say!

Edited January 25, 2018 by inghams85

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The extended eps have been noticeable for the depth of  the Canadian vortex - 480/490 dam at quite a range so not surprising to see such low uppers 

Much of Canada looks set for really noteworthy extreme cold they barely thawed out from the last arctic hammer. I think there may be a link between low solar activity and the very cold uppers/thicknesses just my feel.

Over there the vortex just seems to oscillate in a loop it doesn’t really get anywhere, no wonder. It’s relentless.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Daniel*

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

February week 2 onwards. For me the EC46 has things right now on timing and encouraging to see Glosea on board. Everything this week has just been too progressive and led people up the garden path. An over reaction to tropical signals. Timeline was too soon within the normal lag effect. Come back this time next week is say!

I hope you are correct matey

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

What the 46 shows happening is the uppers Azores  ridge on the control cluster pulls way back with the jet splitting and the euro trough is fed from the nw whilst the northern  split builds up the Scandinavian high. What could go wrong? 

Well the one thing that is less likely to go wrong this time is a lack of cold pooling to tap into - sounds like we could get some snow events before we even get the E'ly been as you say its fed from the NW, Dec 17 all over again then feb 1991, what indeed could go wrong.

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I hope you are correct matey

I hope so. It's all dependant on the state of the GWO once the MJO wave gets into the Western Pacific though but there's been nothing to suggest we can't be third time lucky just yet. What I Will say is this is the first time of the 3 attempts that Glosea has come on board and La Nina has peaked and will weaken the further we get to March so chances are on the increase. We definitely won't see anything before then however although cold from a North Westerly is a possibility (just not the deep cold we want) before then 

[joggs]

Big hitters back out in force lol.

Cold on horizon showing in the models?.

From east,again?.

But don't go against the grain or your posts will go missing.

No doubt like this.

Edited January 25, 2018 by joggs

[Bottled Snow]

18z GEFS following Glosea and Ec46. After flicking through the various members I would estimate 14 or 15 bring an Easterly of some sort with the majority of these very cold and snowy...A few get there within the 10 day range but majority between days 11-13

A long way out to get too excited just yet but there must be a strong signal pointing the models in this direction. Going to be some very interstimg model watching over coming days to see if models are on to something here

BS

[Daniel*]

Ignore

Edited January 25, 2018 by Daniel*

[ICE COLD]

Just now, Bottled Snow said:

18z GEFS following Glosea and Ec46. After flicking through the various members I would estimate 14 or 15 bring an Easterly of some sort with the majority of these very cold and snowy...A few get there within the 10 day range but majority between days 11-13

A long way out to get too excited just yet but there must be a strong signal pointing the models in this direction. Going to be some very interstimg model watching over coming days to see if models are on to something here

BS

Yep think everyone would take P2 ?