Model output discussion - mid January

[tight isobar]

38 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Nobody is ‘rucking’ in here, just merely explaining how direction of flow has historically affected the U.K. 

I’m still very sceptical of this easterly, so until it appears in the reliable, it’s still fantasy.....as most of the predicted cold spells have been this winter!

Yes-agree as my former points/post...

Quote:..lets map out the process 'first'.

Its quite a known phenomenon-that the beast @most times only snarls....we need teeth then the bite!!!

But as we stand its as feasible ...as not.

Thats the wonder of modeling the chase is almost as good as the possible fruits to bear.

Edited January 25, 2018 by tight isobar

[CK1981]

Just now, tight isobar said:

Yes-agree as my former points/post...

Quote:..lets map out the process 'first'.

Its quite a known phenomenon-that the beast @most times only snarls....we need teeth!!!

But as we stand its as feasible ...as not.

Thats the wonder of modeling the chase is almost as good as the possible fruits to bear.

I totally agree and it’s good to have a measured approach, after all, how many times have we seen this scenario fail recently.

[bluearmy]

The eps again have a very rounded Canadian trough and as such, downstream is ridgeless from an amplification perspective- on the mean in any case. Clusters awaited later. The spreads remain still hugely uninformative at day 10.

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by bluearmy

[snowray]

Could 18z be the new trendsetter this evening?

Might it bring the easterly forward a bit to the D8-D10 period?

Maybe even with more support within its Ens?

 

I can't wait!!

[Chesil View]

14 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I totally agree and it’s good to have a measured approach, after all, how many times have we seen this scenario fail recently.

Quite so CK81. Until it's at 96 hours it's just a possibility. At 96 it becomes a probability.But only at T0 is it a certainty.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Stuie]

I posted a possible battleground scenario last night with the caveat it didn`t need much correction West. Things have certainly nudged West.

I also came in here to read some decent chat but heyho.

[inghams85]

24 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Whatever the input, even the likes of the Met Office get caught out on weather that is a week away at times. Let alone us mere mortals. The unpredictability is part of fun.

I do kind of agree with that but the long wave pattern isn't really conducive before then for heights in that area not or the teleconnections and these tend to be way less volatile than the mesoscale set ups. 

[Seasonality]

12z GFS op a slight outlier in FI

[bobbydog]

Just now, Seasonality said:

12z GFS op a slight outlier in FI

or trendsetter?.....

thames streamers? oh!...

suit you sir! 

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

12z GFS op a slight outlier in FI

Cold signal fast disappearing with the mean returning above average. I guess it’s best the easterly fails now rather than us all chase it to the eleventh hour.

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

12z GFS op a slight outlier in FI

Yes it seems to me that -13/-14c uppers could be a touch OTT, if the 18z op were to just bring them back down to -9/10c it would still be a very welcome outcome.

[Stuie]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

or trendsetter?.....

thames streamers? oh!...

suit you sir! 

Not a million miles away from my avatar, heck it has obviously happened before and about time those charts showed again.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all i say if fantasy world right the  uk could get builed  by snow after feb  4  , cant wait till till morning !!

[Scandinavian High.]

BBC long range less likely colder weather from north east and favour high pressure over southern England with frost .

Edited January 25, 2018 by abbie123

[winterof79]

26 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes it seems to me that -13/-14c uppers could be a touch OTT, if the 18z op were to just bring them back down to -9/10c it would still be a very welcome outcome.

[CK1981]

6 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

BBC long range less likely colder weather from north east and favour high pressure over southern England with frost .

It’s not ideal, but I’d settle for some nice frosts to compensate for the dross we’ve had so far this winter.

[winterof79]

19 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

BBC long range less likely colder weather from north east and favour high pressure over southern England with frost .

I am sick of trying to forecast winter weather but there is no update as yet? from 22nd is there?

Edited January 25, 2018 by winterof79

[Daniel*]

38 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Cold signal fast disappearing with the mean returning above average. I guess it’s best the easterly fails now rather than us all chase it to the eleventh hour.

Let’s just shut the thread down if you’re so cocksure.  

Seriously.. how absurd on the basis of a single set of clearly volatile GEFS? A lot of water to go under the bridge. We never get a cold spell without a rollercoaster, might be rare exceptions. 

From what I’ve seen today the chance of a decent cold spell has increased irrespective of what NWP shows right now. 

[CK1981]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Let’s just shut the thread down if you’re so cocksure.  

Seriously.. how absurd on the basis of a single set of clearly volatile GEFS? A lot of water to go under the bridge. We never get a cold spell without a rollercoaster, might be rare exceptions. 

From what I’ve seen today the chance of a decent cold spell has increased irrespective of what NWP shows right now. 

Excuse me?? I was merely commenting on what the graph was showing. Maybe you should stop being a keyboard warrior and understand this is the model output discussion and I was discussing a particular output....or are you in the wrong thread?

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by CK1981

[Scandinavian High.]

15 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I am sick of trying to forecast winter weather but there is no update as yet? from 22nd is there?

Updated at 19.21 25th January BBC website long range forecast.. 

[Catacol]

21 hours ago, s4lancia said:

This is where I struggle. Getting my head around the relationship between the MJO and the GWO / mountain &  friction torques. Feedbacks and chicken and egg. Both evidently influence the other. In Excel it would error as a circular reference!

When the convection makes it to the dateline and goes into decline, global AAM is often at its greatest. So are we to expect a big uptick in net AAM to start showing up soon, as the MJO forecasts look promising in that respect?

 

Yes - the uptick has started. How high it goes is the question... and how sustained it will be also. GWO looks promising at the moment as GLAAM kicks upwards - but I'm cautious because Nina forcing has dampened developments twice already this season as convection tries to push into the western pacific. We will see fairly soon if we can be 3rd time lucky in February...

[karlos1983]

Could be a long few days in here lol

Way I see it is nothing’s really changed today, all options still on the table. Now we just need to let the pattern evolve, going to be a few flip flops to come yet.

not sure I’ve ever seen an easterly come to fruition without a few bumps in the road along the way..

 

Edited January 25, 2018 by karlos1983

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Excuse me?? I was merely commenting on what the graph was showing. Maybe you should stop being a keyboard warrior and understand this is the model output discussion and I was discussing a particular output....or are you in the wrong thread?

 

Perhaps a bit too forward sorry but not a great interpretation from you especially with the high uncertainty. The mean goes average to above at T+336 I think that says it all.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Daniel*

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It is nailed!………ahhhhhh my hand to the fence as I repair it!

 

Seriously?  We have a potential potent 10-14 day cold spell knocking....but that is it....knocking

 

BFTP

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Perhaps a bit too forward sorry but not a great interpretation from you especially with the high uncertainty. The mean goes average to above at T+336 I think that says it all.

You’re still missing the point. I was making a comment based on an output. I stated 2 facts based on the graph:

1) The cold signal is fast disappearing. It is compared with previous runs.

2) The mean rises above the long term average. It does on the graph.

Where in those statements is anything incorrect on not relevant to this thread?

Rather than calling someone ‘cocksure’ and absurd, maybe take some time to read the comments first!