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Model output discussion - mid January


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39 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I'm from the Netherlands, ESE winds are not very cold here, I can't imagine that even further west they have more punch unless your standards are really low. I think air from northern Siberia, around nova zembla is called arctic air but I could be wrong 

If you want to be pedantic, you continue! The rest of us are in the U.K. not the Netherlands and a north easterly flow is not as cold as a flow off a very cold continent.

A north easterly flow for the U.K. has to cross a large body of water and is therefore moderated by the temperature of the sea. A flow off the continent, with the same upper air, will not be moderated by the short sea track of the channel, and therefore will result in colder surface temperatures for us.

We refer to arctic air when we have a direct northerly flow from the arctic and Siberian air from an easterly flow from Siberia.

 

 

Edited by CK1981
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In days of old, When nights were cold, And models weren't invented, We might have hoped, we might have prayed, But we didn't drive ourselves demented.   The MJO the QBO,

netweather members celebrate when the long-awaited easterly finally arrives...

00z EC showing interesting battleground snow event for the north and west next Tuesday, as Atlantic frontal system moves in from the west and bumps into the cold air If only my wife could u

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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

not amplified enough over n America so too flat across the atlantic

we may have to wait until after day 10 to get sufficient amplification upstream to draw the ridge into the mid atlantic 

Quite so Blue.  it,s no real surprise that the ECM despite heading in a similar direction doesn't, quite deliver any fire works. Since this latest cold chase started about three days back on the GFS the real interest has always been 5th Feb and beyond and the current ECM only takes us to the 4th.

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Why are people posting Day 8 charts expecting to see an Easterly at days 9/10. With tropical lag the VERY earliest this will be evident is the 8th/9th February onwards. Any mid Atlantic height rises are just part of the overall evolution and it will take 2/3 bites of the cherry. The easterly as i posted last week will be in view by the 30th/31st of this month on the ECM. Far reaches of GFS and ensembles for now (as is the case)

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5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Quite so Blue.  it,s no real surprise that the ECM despite heading in a similar direction doesn't, quite deliver any fire works. Since this latest cold chase started about three days back on the GFS the real interest has always been 5th Feb and beyond and the current ECM only takes us to the 4th.

It seems that the ECM is playing the Grinch to GFS's Santa, at the mo?:D

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7 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Quite so Blue.  it,s no real surprise that the ECM despite heading in a similar direction doesn't, quite deliver any fire works. Since this latest cold chase started about three days back on the GFS the real interest has always been 5th Feb and beyond and the current ECM only takes us to the 4th.

My point exactly - people need to realise the ECM isn't in range on the ops yet

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6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Anyone else noticed that when an easterly pops up on modeling...so does the rucking in here...!

Anyway the ecm divvers and drags in evolution.

Still not a bad overal signal...and the trend 'overal' is quite consistant.

As is obvious, we need correct/decent atlantic amp-to get enough swerve on the heights...and eventualy the- all important correction of flow.

As for the options/opinions on preference of flow...is at point standing 'pointLESS as we need decipher on exactions and migrate.

From either sector/source most won't be dissapointed, as it would be a notable incursion via either route!..

Let map out the process first though...

Or we may run out of dummies very quickly...?

Nobody is ‘rucking’ in here, just merely explaining how direction of flow has historically affected the U.K. 

I’m still very sceptical of this easterly, so until it appears in the reliable, it’s still fantasy.....as most of the predicted cold spells have been this winter!

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1 minute ago, Blizzardof82 said:

Thanks for that, I will ignore all others input and analysis from now on and just listen to you.

All others input has been the same no one has signposted an Easterly around the 2nd or 3rd. 

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2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Nobody is ‘rucking’ in here, just merely explaining how direction of flow has historically affected the U.K. 

I’m still very sceptical of this easterly, so until it appears in the reliable, it’s still fantasy.....as most of the predicted cold spells have been this winter!

As am I, CK...Nothing is nailed until the moment it happens...:good:

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NE’ly over the snowfields of Scandi tend to be very cold and quite snowy if low heights sufficiently cold uppers are there, straight E’ly whereas tends to be more dry whilst colder less sea track. Furthermore there’s less moderation at this time of year in contrast to December, with sea temps typically bottoming out early March. Waters around S Scandi are below average.. on a separate note pronounced cold SSTs to southwest. Unusual configuration there some cold spots amongst warmer than ave SSTs - I wonder what causes this?

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Edited by Daniel*
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Just now, That ECM said:

All this talk of easterlies around the 8th/9th of feb:D we've seen them vanish at t72. However the output is interesting so let's keep watching.

The chances are they could vanish in 2 days lol but background signals are as good as they have been all winter for that time frame so we have a chance and a ticket to the game!

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7 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

I see the nastiness to others hs started again.  Just because you disagree with someone does not mean you be be snidey or nasty...

I don’t think anyone is being nasty. People will also disagree and have their own views. If they didn’t, it would be very dull in here.

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26 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

All others input has been the same no one has signposted an Easterly around the 2nd or 3rd. 

Whatever the input, even the likes of the Met Office get caught out on weather that is a week away at times. Let alone us mere mortals. The unpredictability is part of fun.

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2 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

JC has recently tweeted about how similar this winter is compared to 2013/14 he even compares February and we all know what that turned out to be like...... Let's just hope there won't be a repeat performance of Feb 14 over our side of the Atlantic

image.jpeg

But it hasn't been like 2013/14 in the UK and Europe.

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2 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

JC has recently tweeted about how similar this winter is compared to 2013/14 he even compares February and we all know what that turned out to be like...... Let's just hope there won't be a repeat performance of Feb 14 over our side of the Atlantic

image.jpeg

I wouldn't,t worry too much Draig Goch. JC has made a quite a few erroneous suggestions with regard to European winters.

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2 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

JC has recently tweeted about how similar this winter is compared to 2013/14 he even compares February and we all know what that turned out to be like...... Let's just hope there won't be a repeat performance of Feb 14 over our side of the Atlantic

image.jpeg

Oh no way! We're long overdue a snowy not stormy Feb. Mind you having said that, I wouldn't compare this winter with 13/14 and say it's similar as I'm sure it was much milder and wetter as opposed to our relatively quiet December followed by about average January temperatures this year so far tbh

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