Model output discussion - mid January

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

We need the deeper shortwave over the eastern seaboard around t216 to verify as it’s a lot shallower in the 6z and with the energy spilling into Greenland preventing the amplification...

Edited January 25, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

are we all getting excited with the gfs 12z fI

Not just gfs pal...

-more later-!!!

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

No probably not but it does bring in colder air which if timed right, could turn any rain moving in from the Atlantic to snow (transient at least) as it hits the cold block of air. This set up has brought some of our best snow events on the coasts anyway. 

Regarding the flooding, what you said is absolutely true and with yet more rain due this weekend it's going to get a bit worse before it gets better I think.

If you look at the 384 chart ( which of course isn’t to be taken to serious ) however you can see that the Atlantic is beginning to push towards the block

SW uk has had its best snowfalls when the Atlantic stalls out -

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

are we all getting excited with the gfs 12z fI

Yes 

its not like it hasn’t been hinting at this for a while 

so with good reason I’d say

Edited January 25, 2018 by karlos1983

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

are we all getting excited with the gfs 12z fI

It fits perfectly with glosea, GFS 12z should not be discounted. 

Edited January 25, 2018 by Daniel*

[nick sussex]

Quite an upgrade from the UKMO in the shorter term.

Given the upstream pattern at T144hrs the low near the UK should head se with some colder air heading in as that happens.

In terms of the GFS a similar pattern from its earlier runs but still too far out to have too much confidence in although todays MJO forecasts look really good.

Edited January 25, 2018 by nick sussex

[ghoneym]

A chart 48 hours from now, 850 temps if anyone needs a calm me down after that run!  phew! FI epicness  

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

A chart 48 hours from now, 850 temps if anyone needs a calm me down after that run!  phew! FI epicness  

13th October last year???

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS aren't too crash hot this time though, certainly a downgrade compared to the last few runs.

[karlos1983]

What goes up must come down, I love physics 

[Daniel*]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS aren't too crash hot this time though, certainly a downgrade compared to the last few runs.

Certainly not as many very cold runs however even more going cold. Overall good! 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 big outlier's here - one a Murr special and the other one a Gavin special.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

2 big outlier's here - one a Murr special and the other one a Gavin special.

P4 = useless low res

Op= Trend setter 

Edited January 25, 2018 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

2 big outlier's here - one a Murr special and the other one a Gavin special.

That horrible orange ensemble can do one!

Anyway US forecasters expect cold Arctic air to head south into the central/north USA from the middle of next week which would suggest some decent amplification over there to pull that cold south.

Downstream that should have a ridge in the  Atlantic and keep the main PV lobe further to the nw.

Edited January 25, 2018 by nick sussex

[ghoneym]

31 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

13th October last year???

Oops should have double checked b4 posting  sorry for the misleading chart, meteociel spewed that out earlier, I never checked the date...doh 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Singularity said:

 

The mean heading off the scale. Most amusing!

ECMF seems more realistic unless the Nina anomalies erode faster than the current consensus.

 

Should be a good chance of some more GFS runs akin to the 00z cropping up sooner rather than later. Enjoy them when they come! (Okay, if and when - I've been at this game a long time...)

Are you able to post the phase 6 and 7 composites for February? 

I still don't think we'll see much of phase 8 and 1. 

[Snowman.]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Are you able to post the phase 6 and 7 composites for February? 

I still don't think we'll see much of phase 8 and 1. 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[CK1981]

12 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

Oops should have double checked b4 posting  sorry for the misleading chart, meteociel spewed that out earlier, I never checked the date...doh 

That’s ok, years of data analysis means I never miss a thing ?

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Are you able to post the phase 6 and 7 composites for February?

I still don't think we'll see much of phase 8 and 1.

I'm Singularitys press officer so I can answer this. He's currently in an MJO Obsessives Anonymous meeting!

This is a good link for all the phases:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[summer blizzard]

11 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm Singularitys press officer so I can answer this. He's currently in an MJO Obsessives Anonymous meeting!

This is a good link for all the phases:

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

Thanks. I also follow the MJO a lot. 

The phase 6 composite is not a bad match for our part of the world if you shift things west a bit for the forecast and the phase 5 is a reasonably modest match. If we do progress to phase 7 though then it's clear to see why the GFS output went the way it did tonight.

The phase 2 and 3 composites for March are not bad either if progression is right. 

[ArHu3]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

I disagree! If the air is travelling hundreds of miles over a relatively warm sea, it will be moderated. If the uppers are low and the flow is off the short sea track from the fridged continent, it will definitely result in colder maximum temperatures here.

Also, the coldest uppers often come from Siberia (not the arctic) across the continent and towards us.....in an easterly flow, of course.

 

I'm from the Netherlands, ESE winds are not very cold here, I can't imagine that even further west they have more punch unless your standards are really low. I think air from northern Siberia, around nova zembla is called arctic air but I could be wrong 

[Decemberof2010]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

I'm from the Netherlands, ESE winds are not very cold here, I can't imagine that even further west they have more punch unless your standards are really low. I think air from northern Siberia, around nova zembla is called arctic air but I could be wrong 

Oh our standards are very low. My next door neighbour has really bad dandruff and if this Feb cold doesn't happen I'm going round to his and asking him to shake his head, so I can see some white stuff falling

[snowray]

This could be good, D8 chart from ECM, easterly inbound by D9?

[Seasonality]

[snowray]

Close call. Very cold air just to our east, lots of eastern promise so to speak.

 

Would not take much of an upgrade for some of that cold to come our way.